Yoshie Furuhashi
@yoshiefuruhashi.bsky.social
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
All that "post-neoliberalism" has accomplished so far is to make tradable sectors less efficient and more expensive, while doing nothing to curb the costs of non-tradable services. 🙃
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
All that "post-neoliberalism" has accomplished so far is to make tradable sectors less efficient and more expensive, while doing nothing to curb the costs of non-tradable services. 🙃
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Please stop blaming on trade the things (or putative things like the $140k number) that are pretty much entirely the fault of America’s terrible nontradeable sectors. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
November 26, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Please stop blaming on trade the things (or putative things like the $140k number) that are pretty much entirely the fault of America’s terrible nontradeable sectors. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
By this I mean -- I doubt real-world actual humans are going to say "The labor market is getting worse and I dislike Trump more, but I'm noticing inflation is cooling off so I'll give Trump credit for that." Orange Man Bad is going to have a high correlation to all the issues.
November 20, 2025 at 3:53 PM
By this I mean -- I doubt real-world actual humans are going to say "The labor market is getting worse and I dislike Trump more, but I'm noticing inflation is cooling off so I'll give Trump credit for that." Orange Man Bad is going to have a high correlation to all the issues.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
The approval ratings of Trump going down at the same time that his approval on both the economy and inflation are going down makes it tough to tease on what's the driving force -- not really a nitpick, just something I'm thinking about:
November 20, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The approval ratings of Trump going down at the same time that his approval on both the economy and inflation are going down makes it tough to tease on what's the driving force -- not really a nitpick, just something I'm thinking about:
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
COST is a great one to watch in part because they do monthly sales reports.
November 20, 2025 at 2:56 PM
COST is a great one to watch in part because they do monthly sales reports.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Make of this what you will but with WMT comps up mid-single-digit the odds consumer spending is slowing rapidly are negligible.
November 20, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Make of this what you will but with WMT comps up mid-single-digit the odds consumer spending is slowing rapidly are negligible.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
WMT beat and raise...hard to be too worried about the consumer with this result.
*WALMART 3Q ADJ EPS 62C, EST. 60C
*WALMART 3Q TOTAL US COMP SALES EX-GAS +4.4%, EST. +4%
*WMT SEES FY SALES EX-FX +4.8% TO +5.1%, SAW +3.75% TO +4.75%
*WALMART SEES FY ADJ EPS $2.58 TO $2.63, SAW $2.52 TO $2.62
*WALMART 3Q ADJ EPS 62C, EST. 60C
*WALMART 3Q TOTAL US COMP SALES EX-GAS +4.4%, EST. +4%
*WMT SEES FY SALES EX-FX +4.8% TO +5.1%, SAW +3.75% TO +4.75%
*WALMART SEES FY ADJ EPS $2.58 TO $2.63, SAW $2.52 TO $2.62
November 20, 2025 at 12:01 PM
WMT beat and raise...hard to be too worried about the consumer with this result.
*WALMART 3Q ADJ EPS 62C, EST. 60C
*WALMART 3Q TOTAL US COMP SALES EX-GAS +4.4%, EST. +4%
*WMT SEES FY SALES EX-FX +4.8% TO +5.1%, SAW +3.75% TO +4.75%
*WALMART SEES FY ADJ EPS $2.58 TO $2.63, SAW $2.52 TO $2.62
*WALMART 3Q ADJ EPS 62C, EST. 60C
*WALMART 3Q TOTAL US COMP SALES EX-GAS +4.4%, EST. +4%
*WMT SEES FY SALES EX-FX +4.8% TO +5.1%, SAW +3.75% TO +4.75%
*WALMART SEES FY ADJ EPS $2.58 TO $2.63, SAW $2.52 TO $2.62
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
MONETARY MALPRACTICE
A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates.
You can read the full thing here www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates.
You can read the full thing here www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 19, 2025 at 4:12 PM
MONETARY MALPRACTICE
A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates.
You can read the full thing here www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates.
You can read the full thing here www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Here's the counter-argument to my view expressed above (which has puts and takes). I've disagreed with Dutta most of this year, and so far things have not deteriorated as much as he thought they would, but that could change.
MONETARY MALPRACTICE
A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates.
You can read the full thing here www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
A great guest contrib from Neil Dutta in today's newsletter, where he calls out the Fed's reluctance to cut rates.
You can read the full thing here www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 20, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Here's the counter-argument to my view expressed above (which has puts and takes). I've disagreed with Dutta most of this year, and so far things have not deteriorated as much as he thought they would, but that could change.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
All together, mixed bag. Market added 10% to the pricing of a December cut on this report (now 35%, up from 25% earlier this AM), but given the strength in payrolls and the underlying details that feels like the wrong price action to me.
November 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
All together, mixed bag. Market added 10% to the pricing of a December cut on this report (now 35%, up from 25% earlier this AM), but given the strength in payrolls and the underlying details that feels like the wrong price action to me.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
No sign of weak labor demand in wages. Line worker avg hourly earnings looks like it's stabilizing around 2% ann., which means 2-3% inflation and 1-2% productivity growth...pretty reasonable. Total line worker payroll disbursals grew 4.2% ann. in nominal terms in Q3, plenty to sustain spending.
November 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
No sign of weak labor demand in wages. Line worker avg hourly earnings looks like it's stabilizing around 2% ann., which means 2-3% inflation and 1-2% productivity growth...pretty reasonable. Total line worker payroll disbursals grew 4.2% ann. in nominal terms in Q3, plenty to sustain spending.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Significant underperformance among college educated unemployment rates and younger worker unemployment rates.
November 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Significant underperformance among college educated unemployment rates and younger worker unemployment rates.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
On the one hand, unemployment due to job loss is trending rapidly higher. On the other, the typical duration of unemployment is declining. Part-time work for economic reasons also declining gently. And unemployment for high school grads no college is low + stable.
November 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
On the one hand, unemployment due to job loss is trending rapidly higher. On the other, the typical duration of unemployment is declining. Part-time work for economic reasons also declining gently. And unemployment for high school grads no college is low + stable.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Some jobs day observations
Pick your indicator: is the labor market deteriorating measurably and weaker than 2018? Unemployment rate says yes. Or is the jobs market stronger than 2016-2019 and stable? Prime-age emp-pop says yes.
Pick your indicator: is the labor market deteriorating measurably and weaker than 2018? Unemployment rate says yes. Or is the jobs market stronger than 2016-2019 and stable? Prime-age emp-pop says yes.
November 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Some jobs day observations
Pick your indicator: is the labor market deteriorating measurably and weaker than 2018? Unemployment rate says yes. Or is the jobs market stronger than 2016-2019 and stable? Prime-age emp-pop says yes.
Pick your indicator: is the labor market deteriorating measurably and weaker than 2018? Unemployment rate says yes. Or is the jobs market stronger than 2016-2019 and stable? Prime-age emp-pop says yes.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Mister Softee amirite
November 20, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Mister Softee amirite
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
it really is notable how
a) the Bitcoin bounce was meh ish
b) it led the rollover again
a) the Bitcoin bounce was meh ish
b) it led the rollover again
November 20, 2025 at 4:16 PM
it really is notable how
a) the Bitcoin bounce was meh ish
b) it led the rollover again
a) the Bitcoin bounce was meh ish
b) it led the rollover again
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
the quantum shit* is getting pummeled
*technical term
*technical term
November 20, 2025 at 4:01 PM
the quantum shit* is getting pummeled
*technical term
*technical term
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
$MSTR is ten buck lower than the open
November 20, 2025 at 3:59 PM
$MSTR is ten buck lower than the open
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
sad trombone for store of value
November 20, 2025 at 3:14 PM
sad trombone for store of value
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
<---flipped out remaining longs and looking to put out shorts
November 20, 2025 at 1:40 PM
<---flipped out remaining longs and looking to put out shorts
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Got suspended yesterday on Twitter for “violent speech”, but I really think I’m getting woke-policed for content Twitter doesn’t like.
I appealed, but haven’t heard back yet.
Twitter keeps reminding me that if I remove the tweet, I can be fully reinstated immediately.
I appealed, but haven’t heard back yet.
Twitter keeps reminding me that if I remove the tweet, I can be fully reinstated immediately.
November 20, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Got suspended yesterday on Twitter for “violent speech”, but I really think I’m getting woke-policed for content Twitter doesn’t like.
I appealed, but haven’t heard back yet.
Twitter keeps reminding me that if I remove the tweet, I can be fully reinstated immediately.
I appealed, but haven’t heard back yet.
Twitter keeps reminding me that if I remove the tweet, I can be fully reinstated immediately.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Page One in Iowa.
November 20, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Page One in Iowa.
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
November 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October Month-over-month • 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seaso...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 20, 2025 at 3:11 PM
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
Reposted by Yoshie Furuhashi
Today there was an attempted ICE raid in Bensonhurst & community members showed up. Even though NYPD collaborated with ICE by trying to disburse the crowd; community members stood their ground & ICE left without kidnapping a single person per the rapid response groups I'm on. We protect us!
November 19, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Today there was an attempted ICE raid in Bensonhurst & community members showed up. Even though NYPD collaborated with ICE by trying to disburse the crowd; community members stood their ground & ICE left without kidnapping a single person per the rapid response groups I'm on. We protect us!