Alexander H. Montgomery
@alexmontgomery.bsky.social
Professor at Reed College
Nonresident Senior Fellow at New America
IR/SNA/STS/WMD
alexmontgomery.com
http://tinyurl.com/oxhbpo
I'm not a donkey, I don't have a field.
Nonresident Senior Fellow at New America
IR/SNA/STS/WMD
alexmontgomery.com
http://tinyurl.com/oxhbpo
I'm not a donkey, I don't have a field.
Pinned
Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
issforum.org/policy-round...
issforum.org/policy-round...
H-Diplo|RJISSF Policy Forum on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
18 July 2025 | PDF: https://issforum.org/to/jrt16-P1 | Website: rjissf.org | X: @HDiplo Editor: Diane Labrosse Commissioning Editor: Jennifer L. Erickson Production Editor: Christopher Ball Pre…
issforum.org
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
The next generation of nuclear strategy must be able to harness disagreement as a source of resilience, not paralysis, argues Amy J. Nelson.
Nuclear Policy Must Learn to Live With Disagreement
From climate to AI, other fields have bridged deep divides.
foreignpolicy.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement.
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Threat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New Era
This report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement.
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
December 11, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
I haven’t been able to bring myself to slog through the whole NSS yet, but @carriealee.bsky.social has a reading that inoculates against “expert” attempts to treat it as something other than what it is.
A few thoughts on the new NSS, expert responses, and upcoming NDS.
1. The first talking point for every expert should have been that this is an overtly white nationalist document that spits on every American ideal of meritocracy, the innate value of human life, and self-determination.
1/
1. The first talking point for every expert should have been that this is an overtly white nationalist document that spits on every American ideal of meritocracy, the innate value of human life, and self-determination.
1/
December 7, 2025 at 10:30 PM
I haven’t been able to bring myself to slog through the whole NSS yet, but @carriealee.bsky.social has a reading that inoculates against “expert” attempts to treat it as something other than what it is.
Try Theories of International Politics and Zombies by @dandrezner.bsky.social
December 3, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Try Theories of International Politics and Zombies by @dandrezner.bsky.social
Kinetic also involves non-“military” uses of deadly force by what technically are civilians, including contractors, clandestine agencies, state-sponsored terrorist groups, mafia, and some mercenaries, that offer (among other things) greater deniability when used by a state.
OT: I actually think that *academic* international-relations scholars *should* be using "kinetic" more, but that's for a very specific reason: we talk about "military power" & "military capabilities" in a way that collapses their social & symbolic properties w/ their employment to destroy things.
I'm really fascinated by the way this administration seems to think "kinetic strike" is a sort of magical phrase as opposed to being to being ridiculous military jargon. Hegseth uses it a lot the way a teenager will use some new word they think makes them sound sophisticated.
December 1, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Kinetic also involves non-“military” uses of deadly force by what technically are civilians, including contractors, clandestine agencies, state-sponsored terrorist groups, mafia, and some mercenaries, that offer (among other things) greater deniability when used by a state.
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
OT: I actually think that *academic* international-relations scholars *should* be using "kinetic" more, but that's for a very specific reason: we talk about "military power" & "military capabilities" in a way that collapses their social & symbolic properties w/ their employment to destroy things.
I'm really fascinated by the way this administration seems to think "kinetic strike" is a sort of magical phrase as opposed to being to being ridiculous military jargon. Hegseth uses it a lot the way a teenager will use some new word they think makes them sound sophisticated.
REPORTER: Does the administration deny that that second strike happened, or did it happen and the administration denies that Hegseth gave the order?
LEAVITT: The latter. Secretary Hegseth authorized Admiral Bradley to conduct these kinetic strikes. He worked well within his authority and the law.
LEAVITT: The latter. Secretary Hegseth authorized Admiral Bradley to conduct these kinetic strikes. He worked well within his authority and the law.
December 1, 2025 at 7:32 PM
OT: I actually think that *academic* international-relations scholars *should* be using "kinetic" more, but that's for a very specific reason: we talk about "military power" & "military capabilities" in a way that collapses their social & symbolic properties w/ their employment to destroy things.
This is definitely going in my next AI slide deck.
November 17, 2025 at 3:45 PM
This is definitely going in my next AI slide deck.
When @jenvictor.bsky.social discusses American political networks, pull up a seat!
A short thread of observations using Max Andrew's tool to explore the network of relationships revealed in the Epstein estate email cache. @thatsjustlikeyouropinionman.com
🧵
1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim.
epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com
🧵
1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim.
epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com
November 17, 2025 at 5:57 AM
When @jenvictor.bsky.social discusses American political networks, pull up a seat!
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that @dandrezner.bsky.social pinned it: bsky.app/profile/dand...
Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...
October 30, 2025 at 7:40 PM
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that @dandrezner.bsky.social pinned it: bsky.app/profile/dand...
I suspect @dexeve.bsky.social may be right here regarding what Trump thinks he has asked the DoD to do, although I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly." It would make more sense than underground testing as a "on an equal basis" since... neither Russia nor China has restarted testing.
The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
October 30, 2025 at 4:23 AM
I suspect @dexeve.bsky.social may be right here regarding what Trump thinks he has asked the DoD to do, although I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly." It would make more sense than underground testing as a "on an equal basis" since... neither Russia nor China has restarted testing.
Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...
October 30, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...
The United States has tested more weapons than every other country combined, and has the most robust science based stockpile stewardship program. Restarting testing would erode the US lead. www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/n...
October 30, 2025 at 2:20 AM
The United States has tested more weapons than every other country combined, and has the most robust science based stockpile stewardship program. Restarting testing would erode the US lead. www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/n...
“Users often turn to satellite imagery from companies like Planet Labs to find out what’s going on in war zones, countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, or in the aftermath of a natural disaster.” Spot on, except the disaster is man-made in this case…
Satellite shows what’s really happening at the East Wing of the White House
“Now it looks like the White House is physically being destroyed.”…
arstechnica.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:20 PM
“Users often turn to satellite imagery from companies like Planet Labs to find out what’s going on in war zones, countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, or in the aftermath of a natural disaster.” Spot on, except the disaster is man-made in this case…
Astute analysis of the implications of Hegfest: a military that will be instructed to violate domestic and international law.
My analysis of Tuesday's mtg:
"...It underscored the admin’s intention to shift its focus... toward homeland issues, and provided the clearest indication yet that US partners and allies will have to contend with a military increasingly operating outside of int'l law."
www.gmfus.org/news/rough-s...
"...It underscored the admin’s intention to shift its focus... toward homeland issues, and provided the clearest indication yet that US partners and allies will have to contend with a military increasingly operating outside of int'l law."
www.gmfus.org/news/rough-s...
Rough Seas Ahead
www.gmfus.org
October 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Astute analysis of the implications of Hegfest: a military that will be instructed to violate domestic and international law.
I guess it’s Portland’s turn. As a reminder, this federal invasion is based on protests outside of a single ICE facility, where *PDX police* have reported that federal agents are instigating confrontations.
Federal cops ‘instigating’ confrontations with protesters outside ICE building, Portland police official says in court
Assistant Chief Craig Dobson said federal officers were “causing some of the ruckus” at the ongoing protests.
www.oregonlive.com
September 27, 2025 at 5:32 PM
I guess it’s Portland’s turn. As a reminder, this federal invasion is based on protests outside of a single ICE facility, where *PDX police* have reported that federal agents are instigating confrontations.
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?
New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
issforum.org/policy-round...
issforum.org/policy-round...
H-Diplo|RJISSF Policy Forum on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
18 July 2025 | PDF: https://issforum.org/to/jrt16-P1 | Website: rjissf.org | X: @HDiplo Editor: Diane Labrosse Commissioning Editor: Jennifer L. Erickson Production Editor: Christopher Ball Pre…
issforum.org
September 11, 2025 at 7:02 PM
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control
www.newamerica.org
July 1, 2025 at 1:15 PM
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
I guess blowing up Fordow and declaring Iran denuclearized is the new closing Yongbyon and declaring North Korea denuclearized?
June 24, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized
Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here.
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network
Abstract. The nuclear nonproliferation regime has come under attack from proliferation determinists, who argue that resolute proliferants connected by decentralized networks can be stopped only throug...
direct.mit.edu
June 18, 2025 at 3:27 PM
@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here.
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
"Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
1/
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Israel bombarded Tehran with a new wave of strikes on Sunday afternoon, as both sides warned of more to come in a conflict that is rapidly expanding in scope and intensity. Follow live updates. nyti.ms/4kIzaK4
June 15, 2025 at 5:46 PM
1/
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment
The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies
www.newamerica.org
June 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.
Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Reposted by Alexander H. Montgomery
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
🎊 New America has launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab (FSSL), led by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social ! 🎊
FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.
🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.
🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
June 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.
#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL