Chris. Bart.
@chriba.bsky.social
Interested in data
Currently pharmacometrics and causal inference
Legacy: drug design, risk management, protein structures, protein folding, ...
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=R3QYvdUAAAAJ
Currently pharmacometrics and causal inference
Legacy: drug design, risk management, protein structures, protein folding, ...
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=R3QYvdUAAAAJ
Pinned
Chris. Bart.
@chriba.bsky.social
· Nov 15
To fully realize the potential of our clinical trials, go beyond randomization, and use #causalinference and #pharmacometrics modelling and simulation. Advancing both we show that non-linear mixed effects modelling implements standardization using latent exchangeability.
doi.org/10.1002/psp4...
doi.org/10.1002/psp4...
Nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling as a method for causal inference to predict exposures under desired within‐subject dose titration schemes
The ICH E9 (R1) guidance and the related estimand framework propose to clearly define and separate the clinical question of interest formulated as estimand from the estimation method. With that it be....
doi.org
For years, we were looking for ways to use non-linear mixed effects modeling for causal inference. NOTHING! Now we started to advance things ourselves. Huge potential. Much remains to be done.
#causal #causalinference #nlme #stats
#causal #causalinference #nlme #stats
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
January 13, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
“Uruguay did what most nations still call impossible: it built a power grid that runs almost entirely on renewables—at half the cost of fossil fuels. The physicist who led that transformation says the same playbook could work anywhere—if governments have the courage to change the rules.”
Uruguay’s Renewable Charge: A Small Nation, A Big Lesson For The World
Uruguay built a power grid that runs 99% on renewables—at half the cost of fossil fuels. Here’s how its bold energy overhaul became a global model.
www.forbes.com
January 10, 2026 at 8:29 AM
“Uruguay did what most nations still call impossible: it built a power grid that runs almost entirely on renewables—at half the cost of fossil fuels. The physicist who led that transformation says the same playbook could work anywhere—if governments have the courage to change the rules.”
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
X/Twitter's rough full volume is around 500 total million posts every day, or 182 (and a half) billion posts per year.
By contracts, we found 11.2 million research posts in all of 2025 on there.
In other words, 0.000006% of Twitter appears to be sharing research. Basically zero.
By contracts, we found 11.2 million research posts in all of 2025 on there.
In other words, 0.000006% of Twitter appears to be sharing research. Basically zero.
January 8, 2026 at 1:08 PM
X/Twitter's rough full volume is around 500 total million posts every day, or 182 (and a half) billion posts per year.
By contracts, we found 11.2 million research posts in all of 2025 on there.
In other words, 0.000006% of Twitter appears to be sharing research. Basically zero.
By contracts, we found 11.2 million research posts in all of 2025 on there.
In other words, 0.000006% of Twitter appears to be sharing research. Basically zero.
This gives financial institutions leeway to acquire hard-to-sell, higher-yielding long-term assets and finance them with cheaper short-term liabilities, thus increasing profits through a risky “mismatched book”.
A former top banker predicts that an unreformed pay system and the gutting of regulation will accelerate the next financial crisis
It’s fire season for finance, writes Ken Miller
A former top banker predicts that an unreformed pay system and the gutting of regulation will accelerate the next financial crisis
econ.st
January 4, 2026 at 8:50 AM
This gives financial institutions leeway to acquire hard-to-sell, higher-yielding long-term assets and finance them with cheaper short-term liabilities, thus increasing profits through a risky “mismatched book”.
President Trump is taking 325 mg of aspirin a day to prevent heart disease. His doctors advise him to take 81 mg. Both are wrong. Here’s why.
New edition of Ground Truths, open-access
erictopol.substack.com/p/the-lowdow...
New edition of Ground Truths, open-access
erictopol.substack.com/p/the-lowdow...
The Lowdown on Low-Dose Aspirin for Primary Prevention
Pivotal Randomized Trials and Guidelines
erictopol.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 11:36 PM
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
link 📈🤖
Demystifying Proximal Causal Inference (Ringlein, Nguyen, Zandi et al) Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the
Demystifying Proximal Causal Inference (Ringlein, Nguyen, Zandi et al) Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the
January 1, 2026 at 4:47 PM
link 📈🤖
Demystifying Proximal Causal Inference (Ringlein, Nguyen, Zandi et al) Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the
Demystifying Proximal Causal Inference (Ringlein, Nguyen, Zandi et al) Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the
Happy new year! As an idea for improved privacy pr.tn/ref/X11M0Y8Q
Enjoy two weeks of Proton for free
Experience true online privacy. Protect your data with Proton for free for the next 14 days.
pr.tn
December 31, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Happy new year! As an idea for improved privacy pr.tn/ref/X11M0Y8Q
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Lumo now understands LaTeX. Type any formula (fractions, matrices, integrals, etc.) straight into chat and see it rendered instantly. No more screenshots or ASCII tricks. Perfect for precise technical work and academic tasks.
Try it now: https://lumo.proton.me
Try it now: https://lumo.proton.me
November 26, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Lumo now understands LaTeX. Type any formula (fractions, matrices, integrals, etc.) straight into chat and see it rendered instantly. No more screenshots or ASCII tricks. Perfect for precise technical work and academic tasks.
Try it now: https://lumo.proton.me
Try it now: https://lumo.proton.me
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Students learn early that correlation does not imply causation. Correct, but incomplete... Certain patterns of independence and conditional dependence constrain #causal structure very strongly. A simple example:
December 19, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Students learn early that correlation does not imply causation. Correct, but incomplete... Certain patterns of independence and conditional dependence constrain #causal structure very strongly. A simple example:
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
The older I get, the more my politics mature from childish, naïve beliefs like "the world is complicated and leaders have to make hard decisions" to more serious, adult principles like "hurting people is bad and helping people is good."
December 15, 2025 at 4:51 PM
The older I get, the more my politics mature from childish, naïve beliefs like "the world is complicated and leaders have to make hard decisions" to more serious, adult principles like "hurting people is bad and helping people is good."
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
IL-17-mediated antifungal immunity restricts Candida albicans pathogenicity in the oral cavity
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The microbiome not only consists of bacteria, but also of fungi. Most of them support human and animal health
medicalxpress.com/news/2025-12...
However, some fungi ...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The microbiome not only consists of bacteria, but also of fungi. Most of them support human and animal health
medicalxpress.com/news/2025-12...
However, some fungi ...
IL-17-mediated antifungal immunity restricts Candida albicans pathogenicity in the oral cavity - Nature Microbiology
IL-17 signalling restricts C. albicans pathogenicity in the colonized oral cavity. Lack of IL-17 is associated with overt filamentation due to impaired zinc nutritional immunity and over time leads to...
www.nature.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:07 AM
IL-17-mediated antifungal immunity restricts Candida albicans pathogenicity in the oral cavity
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The microbiome not only consists of bacteria, but also of fungi. Most of them support human and animal health
medicalxpress.com/news/2025-12...
However, some fungi ...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The microbiome not only consists of bacteria, but also of fungi. Most of them support human and animal health
medicalxpress.com/news/2025-12...
However, some fungi ...
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Despite claiming to have seized full control of Pokrovsk, it is not clear that Russia has done so—or that it can necessarily press on for longer than Ukraine can hold on. Our charts break down the data
Ahead of peace talks, Russia’s battlefield advances remain slow
Even at an accelerated recent pace, seizing Ukraine’s eastern regions would take more than two years
econ.st
December 2, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Despite claiming to have seized full control of Pokrovsk, it is not clear that Russia has done so—or that it can necessarily press on for longer than Ukraine can hold on. Our charts break down the data
#datascience: support decisions based on available data
#statistics: discuss data that is required to make reliable decisons ... and hands off ...
#statistics: discuss data that is required to make reliable decisons ... and hands off ...
November 23, 2025 at 9:52 AM
#datascience: support decisions based on available data
#statistics: discuss data that is required to make reliable decisons ... and hands off ...
#statistics: discuss data that is required to make reliable decisons ... and hands off ...
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
The 28-point proposal being hawked around by America is so poorly put together, so vague, unbalanced and impractical that, in a more normal world, it would never have seen the light of day
Donald Trump’s peace plan would be bad for Ukraine, Europe and America
It is a sad mix of naked opportunism and strategic myopia
econ.st
November 22, 2025 at 3:08 PM
The 28-point proposal being hawked around by America is so poorly put together, so vague, unbalanced and impractical that, in a more normal world, it would never have seen the light of day
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
We are thrilled to now be on BlueSky!
We prioritize studies addressing critical health challenges—from major diseases to health equity—that bridge scientific rigor with real-world impact, connecting researchers, clinicians, and policymakers to advance global health 🧬🧪
#OpenScience #MedSky
We prioritize studies addressing critical health challenges—from major diseases to health equity—that bridge scientific rigor with real-world impact, connecting researchers, clinicians, and policymakers to advance global health 🧬🧪
#OpenScience #MedSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:31 PM
We are thrilled to now be on BlueSky!
We prioritize studies addressing critical health challenges—from major diseases to health equity—that bridge scientific rigor with real-world impact, connecting researchers, clinicians, and policymakers to advance global health 🧬🧪
#OpenScience #MedSky
We prioritize studies addressing critical health challenges—from major diseases to health equity—that bridge scientific rigor with real-world impact, connecting researchers, clinicians, and policymakers to advance global health 🧬🧪
#OpenScience #MedSky
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
More than 97 percent effective. www.npr.org/sections/goa...
New malaria drug could be a life-saver as the standard drug shows signs of weakness
The best drug to fight malaria is facing increased resistance from the parasites it fights. Now there's an alternative in the pipeline and it looks promising.
www.npr.org
November 13, 2025 at 5:44 PM
More than 97 percent effective. www.npr.org/sections/goa...
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
In longitudinal studies, dropout leads to a monotone missing data pattern. We show in a new article that monotonicity sometimes enables and sometimes prevents the identification of the full law, i.e., the joint distribution of actual variables and response indicators. openreview.net/pdf?id=kVthd...
November 13, 2025 at 11:39 AM
In longitudinal studies, dropout leads to a monotone missing data pattern. We show in a new article that monotonicity sometimes enables and sometimes prevents the identification of the full law, i.e., the joint distribution of actual variables and response indicators. openreview.net/pdf?id=kVthd...
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
EU GDP is up 1.4% since last year, but growth is spread unevenly
Fastest: Ireland (17.1%, artifact of US pharma activity), Cyprus (3.6%), Bulgaria (3.5%), Croatia (3.4%), & Poland (3.2%)
Slowest: Luxembourg (-.4%), Finland (-.3%), Germany (-.2%), Austria (-.1%), & Hungary (.1%)
Fastest: Ireland (17.1%, artifact of US pharma activity), Cyprus (3.6%), Bulgaria (3.5%), Croatia (3.4%), & Poland (3.2%)
Slowest: Luxembourg (-.4%), Finland (-.3%), Germany (-.2%), Austria (-.1%), & Hungary (.1%)
September 9, 2025 at 12:46 PM
EU GDP is up 1.4% since last year, but growth is spread unevenly
Fastest: Ireland (17.1%, artifact of US pharma activity), Cyprus (3.6%), Bulgaria (3.5%), Croatia (3.4%), & Poland (3.2%)
Slowest: Luxembourg (-.4%), Finland (-.3%), Germany (-.2%), Austria (-.1%), & Hungary (.1%)
Fastest: Ireland (17.1%, artifact of US pharma activity), Cyprus (3.6%), Bulgaria (3.5%), Croatia (3.4%), & Poland (3.2%)
Slowest: Luxembourg (-.4%), Finland (-.3%), Germany (-.2%), Austria (-.1%), & Hungary (.1%)
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
💡A new paper by Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko underscores the intractability of ignorability assumptions commonly invoked in the potential outcomes framework, explains why structural causal models—explicitly grounded in well-defined causal mechanisms—are far easier to interpret. 1/2
August 24, 2025 at 1:19 PM
💡A new paper by Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko underscores the intractability of ignorability assumptions commonly invoked in the potential outcomes framework, explains why structural causal models—explicitly grounded in well-defined causal mechanisms—are far easier to interpret. 1/2
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Stretching DuckDB w/ Common Crawl, ~1.7B rows, ~300 parquet files. ~2-3s for single-column aggregations, ~2-3 mins to SUMMARIZE the data, peaking at ~12-14GB memory usage. Not exactly real-time, but the fact you can do this on a laptop with no server setups or Spark pipelines is still amazing.
August 15, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Stretching DuckDB w/ Common Crawl, ~1.7B rows, ~300 parquet files. ~2-3s for single-column aggregations, ~2-3 mins to SUMMARIZE the data, peaking at ~12-14GB memory usage. Not exactly real-time, but the fact you can do this on a laptop with no server setups or Spark pipelines is still amazing.
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Xi Jinping masters the dark arts of the trade war
How scared should you be of “the China squeeze”?
Xi Jinping masters the dark arts of the trade war
econ.st
August 12, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Xi Jinping masters the dark arts of the trade war
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Donald Trump’s trade policy will be hard to dislodge. Its beneficiaries will be well-organised; its victims may not even realise why they are poorer than they could have been
Donald Trump thinks he’s winning on trade, but America will lose
The harm from tariffs will be lasting and deep
econ.st
August 8, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Donald Trump’s trade policy will be hard to dislodge. Its beneficiaries will be well-organised; its victims may not even realise why they are poorer than they could have been
@lshtm.bsky.social and colleagues:
Any reports of Ascaris exhibiting self-replicating behavior within host— adult worms residing in sites like throat, nasal cavity, or tear ducts, and depositing eggs in these warm, humid microenvironments?
#Ascariasis #Parasitology #Helminths #TropicalMedicine
Any reports of Ascaris exhibiting self-replicating behavior within host— adult worms residing in sites like throat, nasal cavity, or tear ducts, and depositing eggs in these warm, humid microenvironments?
#Ascariasis #Parasitology #Helminths #TropicalMedicine
August 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
@lshtm.bsky.social and colleagues:
Any reports of Ascaris exhibiting self-replicating behavior within host— adult worms residing in sites like throat, nasal cavity, or tear ducts, and depositing eggs in these warm, humid microenvironments?
#Ascariasis #Parasitology #Helminths #TropicalMedicine
Any reports of Ascaris exhibiting self-replicating behavior within host— adult worms residing in sites like throat, nasal cavity, or tear ducts, and depositing eggs in these warm, humid microenvironments?
#Ascariasis #Parasitology #Helminths #TropicalMedicine
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Sorry guys, I know you don't like it, but every time you talk to a statistician, you realize how useless traditional stats is at conveying any idea about causal inference.
July 31, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Sorry guys, I know you don't like it, but every time you talk to a statistician, you realize how useless traditional stats is at conveying any idea about causal inference.
Reposted by Chris. Bart.
Ok so this Pinheiro and Bates book - physical copy on my shelf having survived multiple international moves and downsizings - has been my bible on mixed effects models. But it's 25 years old, is there a modern (#rstats) equivalent i should upgrade to?
July 26, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Ok so this Pinheiro and Bates book - physical copy on my shelf having survived multiple international moves and downsizings - has been my bible on mixed effects models. But it's 25 years old, is there a modern (#rstats) equivalent i should upgrade to?