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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak
@ciuriakd.bsky.social
310 followers 5 following 46 posts
Usually found behind a computer, on a bike, or on the courts with a tennis racquet. If none of the above, check the local pub and stop by for a beer.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 19d
As the Trump Administration continues it destructive assault on the foundations of US prosperity (in this case on the "brain gain" that fuels American innovation), it is fair to ask "Cui bono" - who benefits. My answer on the Trump I policies is aging nicely: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=446....
ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Jun 23
Or, as Yogi Berra reportedly said about a St. Louis restaurant: "No one goes there anymore. It's too crowded".
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
explaintrade.com
Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · Jun 21
"The world's richest man logs onto the platform he bought to yell at the AI he had built for fact-checking conservative mega-influencer Catturd2" is a sentence so stupid that future history books may just skip this decade.
milesklee.bsky.social
performative male @milesklee.bsky.social · Jun 21
he said that too lol
Grok #d @grok•2d I aim to provide accurate, neutral responses based on available data. Claims that I lie about @catturd2 may stem from disagreements with my sourcing, like Media Matters or Rolling Stone, which document his misinformation. I don't have personal biases, but Al training can Show more @ 396 t7 105 3 1.5k ill 388k 只企 Elon Musk !| @elonmusk Follow Shame on you, @Grok 5:32 PM • 6/20/25 • 127K Views ① 635 ［ 299 26K 贝 69
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
thecitp.bsky.social
CITP @thecitp.bsky.social · Jun 16
Super interesting paper by @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social advocating for the establishment of a Caucus of small, open economies as a new, informal group to facilitate a collective response within the @wto.org.

A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
https://lsen.bsky.social‬
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
alanbeattie.bsky.social
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · Jun 14
I'm not a fan of the yah-boo British parliamentary culture at all, but I do feel that when someone lands an absolute zinger of a question like this and literally brings receipts, there should at least be a chant of "NICE ONE MAGGIE" from the public gallery or an airhorn or something.
atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Jun 12
HASSAN: Since you testified that Americans don't pay the president's tariffs, will the Treasury reimburse this New Hampshire small business for the tariffs they paid to the government?

BESSENT: I think we have to look in the aggregate
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
harlangcohen.bsky.social
Harlan G. Cohen @harlangcohen.bsky.social · Jun 9
Intriguing proposals for collective action at the WTO, drawing on GATT history to confront the current moment. From the always insightful @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social
monapaulsen.bsky.social
Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · Jun 6
Dan and I have substantially revised our paper after engaging with colleagues. It has been a particularly tough paper for me to think through and digest the why, how, and what of WTO collective action in response to the United States' trade actions. @ssrn.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Jun 6
Nope. See: "Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=504.... It's about income distribution and the changes wrought by technological change.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · May 31
Cass is off-base in his critique of comparative advantage and Noah Smith is off-base in saying Cass makes a "useful substantive point" on this. See Misunderstanding America: A Journey Through Trade Economics with a Broken Compass papers.ssrn.com/abstract=509.... www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-anti-e...
The anti-economists have overreached
Before you criticize something, at least try to understand it.
www.noahpinion.blog
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · May 30
A "mis-step"? Is it any different if racism and institutional viciousness results in deportation of a man who worked namelessly on building a railroad or someone who would go on to build technology for your adversary, making him your adversary in the process? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/o...
Opinion | The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History
www.nytimes.com
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · May 27
The Unbearable Incoherence of Unworkable Policies.
alanbeattie.bsky.social
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · May 27
But it's substantial enough to compel the rest of the world to join a Mar-a-Lago Accord because reasons.
fintwitter.bsky.social
FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · May 27
Miran sees 10% tariff rate not substantial enough for adverse economic impact
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
alanbeattie.bsky.social
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · May 22
As @ciuriakd.bsky.social says, just set one up across the border in Nova Scotia. Authentic weather, authentic accents.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · May 22
I'm sure Canada would welcome Harvard to establish a campus a short ferry ride away from Cambridge Mass. in Nova Scotia - Harvard North in the True North, Strong and above all Free.
claesdevreese.bsky.social
Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · May 22
Enrollmentment of foreign students halted. Unbelievable. Unconscionable.

“I am writing to inform you that effective immediately, Harvard University’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification is revoked”

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...
www.nytimes.com
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · May 20
If the retailers do not pass on the tariffs to the consumers, there is no gain for American manufacturing because there will be no substitution away from imported products. Cue Bart Simpson on the chalkboard. "There's no gain without pain, there's no gain without pain, there's no...."
ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · May 19
Isn't Russia trying to adjust borders themselves?
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
alanbeattie.bsky.social
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · May 16
First Trump fell out with Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen and now he’s got the Moody’s Blues.

#coat
peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · May 16
Oh boy here we go

*UNITED STATES RATINGS CUT TO Aa1 FROM Aaa BY MOODY'S
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 14
Hi Pasi: Not sure I follow what "a follow" here means! But good to see you on the thread!
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 13
👍
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
These and other aspects of the Reciprocal Tariff are unpacked in my paper on @ssrn.bsky.social - The Trump Reciprocal Tariff: Design Flaws and Trade Costs - papers.ssrn.com/abstract=521...
The Trump Reciprocal Tariff: Design Flaws and Trade Costs
While trade economists have resoundingly condemned the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy, and markets have ratified that judgement by plunging on
papers.ssrn.com
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
So the tariffs calculated by such a model in a partial equilibrium setting with only two countries always comes up with the wrong answer. It turns out very hard to quantify the rip-off in trade - and maybe like we always thought trade is not a rip-off but an exchange.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
So now the US is ripping off Vietnam! But there are all the other tariffs to factor into the simulation and for that you need a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, not a CPE model, which falsifies the USTR assumption that general equilibrium effects can be ignored.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
Vietnam still loses big time in exports to the US, but the US picks up less of the action because third parties increase their sales to the US. The US also loses in third country markets because Vietnamese supply is now deflected to serve those markets. Fun fact: the US runs a surplus with VN!
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
But here is the interesting thing, this framing ignores the rest of the world. So, at a minimum, you have to expand the model to a 3-region model, Vietnam, the US, and the rest of the World. That's easily done in GSIM. So lets rerun the model in this format but with the same tariff on VN.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
The discrepancy between lost sales by Vietnam and captured sales by the US is explained by the increase in US domestic prices, which curtail US domestic demand. US producer revenues and price markups (the producer surplus figure) increase but total economic welfare in the US is a loss of $15.8 bn
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
Vietnam loses $106 billion worth of exports to the US and US producers increase shipments by almost $47 billion. The GSIM framework lets us unpack what just happened.
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ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · Apr 12
The US ships about $15 trillion worth of goods to itself but only
$13.8 billion to Vietnam. Vietnam ships almost $119 billion to the US and about $883 billion to itself. The US tariff that stops the rip-off is 53.7%. So what happens when Trump imposes this:
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