Dylan Murphy
@cotangent.space
Transplant to the Sonoran desert. Perpetually underbiked. he/they.
Resident Stan whisperer for the Tampa Bay Rays. Formerly: U of A Mathematics and iSchool.
Resident Stan whisperer for the Tampa Bay Rays. Formerly: U of A Mathematics and iSchool.
The #1 movie when you were 10 years old is how your 2026 is going to go.
This is fine
This is fine
December 19, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The #1 movie when you were 10 years old is how your 2026 is going to go.
This is fine
This is fine
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
alas, I have been afflicted with a Curse (getting a muppets song stuck in my head whenever I hear the word "phenomena")
December 8, 2025 at 1:24 PM
alas, I have been afflicted with a Curse (getting a muppets song stuck in my head whenever I hear the word "phenomena")
Bird knowers of Bluesky, anyone have thoughts on an ID for this? Maybe Gray Vireo or Plumbeous Vireo? I'm mostly guessing, though. I saw it in the Catalina foothills north of Tucson.
🪶
🪶
December 7, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Bird knowers of Bluesky, anyone have thoughts on an ID for this? Maybe Gray Vireo or Plumbeous Vireo? I'm mostly guessing, though. I saw it in the Catalina foothills north of Tucson.
🪶
🪶
Got to be the Sonoran hot dog. I miss Mr. Antojo.
November 18, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Got to be the Sonoran hot dog. I miss Mr. Antojo.
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide.
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
November 18, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide.
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Starbucks workers are still on strike so we're still posting #birds. Post a bird to remind your followers to buy from a local coffee shop for the duration of the strike. This broad-billed hummingbird supports Presta Coffee.
November 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Starbucks workers are still on strike so we're still posting #birds. Post a bird to remind your followers to buy from a local coffee shop for the duration of the strike. This broad-billed hummingbird supports Presta Coffee.
Apparently Starbucks workers are still on strike, so here's another bird to remind you to buy from a different coffee shop for the duration of the strike. This Gila woodpecker supports Yellow Brick Coffee. 🪶
November 15, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Apparently Starbucks workers are still on strike, so here's another bird to remind you to buy from a different coffee shop for the duration of the strike. This Gila woodpecker supports Yellow Brick Coffee. 🪶
They say that wherever four are gathered together, there's a fifth; this would be an exciting new interpretation
Pope Leo XIV Will Have Lunch With 4 Trans Women in "Unprecedented" Meeting
https://www.them.us/story/pope-leo-xiv-lunch-trans-activists-alesia-nobile
https://www.them.us/story/pope-leo-xiv-lunch-trans-activists-alesia-nobile
November 15, 2025 at 2:09 AM
They say that wherever four are gathered together, there's a fifth; this would be an exciting new interpretation
Post a bird to support @sbworkersunited.org and remind your followers not to buy Starbucks during the strike 🪶
(If you live in medium sized town, or anywhere with a college or university, there's probably a great independent coffee shop near you. This phainopepla supports Exo Roast Co.)
(If you live in medium sized town, or anywhere with a college or university, there's probably a great independent coffee shop near you. This phainopepla supports Exo Roast Co.)
November 14, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Post a bird to support @sbworkersunited.org and remind your followers not to buy Starbucks during the strike 🪶
(If you live in medium sized town, or anywhere with a college or university, there's probably a great independent coffee shop near you. This phainopepla supports Exo Roast Co.)
(If you live in medium sized town, or anywhere with a college or university, there's probably a great independent coffee shop near you. This phainopepla supports Exo Roast Co.)
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
I’d never really experienced it much before but holy shit now I know what people mean when they say MS-13 has a helicopter parenting problem
November 11, 2025 at 9:35 PM
I’d never really experienced it much before but holy shit now I know what people mean when they say MS-13 has a helicopter parenting problem
The look on my face really doesn't indicate how smoked I was here. Haven't done this ride in a few years and forgot how tough the switchbacks are. Beautiful day for a ride, though.
(Doing this 18 hours after donating blood probably didn't help either, oops)
(Doing this 18 hours after donating blood probably didn't help either, oops)
November 11, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The look on my face really doesn't indicate how smoked I was here. Haven't done this ride in a few years and forgot how tough the switchbacks are. Beautiful day for a ride, though.
(Doing this 18 hours after donating blood probably didn't help either, oops)
(Doing this 18 hours after donating blood probably didn't help either, oops)
Wondering what I did to start getting 3-5 new follows per day from accounts with strong bot vibes
November 10, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Wondering what I did to start getting 3-5 new follows per day from accounts with strong bot vibes
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
Breaking: Both #TucsonCouncil Democratic candidates are well ahead in early results. (Selina Barajas is unopposed and is having a great night.)
All four propositions on the ballot (depending on where you live it should be two props) are likely to pass, at least according to early results.
All four propositions on the ballot (depending on where you live it should be two props) are likely to pass, at least according to early results.
November 5, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Breaking: Both #TucsonCouncil Democratic candidates are well ahead in early results. (Selina Barajas is unopposed and is having a great night.)
All four propositions on the ballot (depending on where you live it should be two props) are likely to pass, at least according to early results.
All four propositions on the ballot (depending on where you live it should be two props) are likely to pass, at least according to early results.
Black shirt guy had an omoplata *right there* if he just took a wrist grip, smh
A huge brawl broke out at the Bass Pro Shop grand opening in Odessa, TX. From the looks of it, no one was seriously injured...
November 3, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Black shirt guy had an omoplata *right there* if he just took a wrist grip, smh
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
I'm begging for atheists to add an ounce of maritime law to their politics.
November 3, 2025 at 2:40 AM
I'm begging for atheists to add an ounce of maritime law to their politics.
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
Okay, here’s a prompt: what’s your favorite short story by someone primarily known for their novels
October 21, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Okay, here’s a prompt: what’s your favorite short story by someone primarily known for their novels
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
#nokings Tucson showed up to patriotically support our constitutional rights and protest against the authoritarian actions of Trump and his Republican cronies, also for our new congresswoman @adelitaforcongress.bsky.social #swearherin
October 18, 2025 at 9:28 PM
#nokings Tucson showed up to patriotically support our constitutional rights and protest against the authoritarian actions of Trump and his Republican cronies, also for our new congresswoman @adelitaforcongress.bsky.social #swearherin
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
We couldn't not rate this classic early DAG by our beloved collective granddagy, Sewall Wright.
14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node.
From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"
14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node.
From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"
October 17, 2025 at 1:36 PM
We couldn't not rate this classic early DAG by our beloved collective granddagy, Sewall Wright.
14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node.
From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"
14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node.
From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
My top suggestions of books to read this World Bread Day...
- The Focaccia in the Rye
- Yeast of Eden
- Flours for Algernon
- The Lion, the Witch and the Warburtons
- Pannetonement
- The Naan in the High Castle
- Leaven Las Vegas
- Pitta Rabbit
- The Focaccia in the Rye
- Yeast of Eden
- Flours for Algernon
- The Lion, the Witch and the Warburtons
- Pannetonement
- The Naan in the High Castle
- Leaven Las Vegas
- Pitta Rabbit
October 16, 2025 at 4:29 PM
My top suggestions of books to read this World Bread Day...
- The Focaccia in the Rye
- Yeast of Eden
- Flours for Algernon
- The Lion, the Witch and the Warburtons
- Pannetonement
- The Naan in the High Castle
- Leaven Las Vegas
- Pitta Rabbit
- The Focaccia in the Rye
- Yeast of Eden
- Flours for Algernon
- The Lion, the Witch and the Warburtons
- Pannetonement
- The Naan in the High Castle
- Leaven Las Vegas
- Pitta Rabbit
Reposted by Dylan Murphy
We (me + @alexip718.com) will be running a crowdsourced total crowd estimator for this weekend's No Kings protests, very similar to the one we did for June (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...). Look for a spreadsheet or entry form from us by Saturday, and a preliminary estimate Sunday morning
"No Kings Day" protests turn out millions, rebuking Trump
Our unofficial estimate is that around 4-6 million people attended a protest event yesterday. Anti-Trump resistance is outpacing 2017.
www.gelliottmorris.com
October 16, 2025 at 2:10 PM
We (me + @alexip718.com) will be running a crowdsourced total crowd estimator for this weekend's No Kings protests, very similar to the one we did for June (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...). Look for a spreadsheet or entry form from us by Saturday, and a preliminary estimate Sunday morning
seems to me this is a proof that causation does not imply correlation. there is a clear mechanism for a causal relationship, but the quantity of thing-doing I perform has no empirical association with the quantity of things still to be done
has anyone actually proved a causal relationship between doing things and the things being done
October 13, 2025 at 3:30 PM
seems to me this is a proof that causation does not imply correlation. there is a clear mechanism for a causal relationship, but the quantity of thing-doing I perform has no empirical association with the quantity of things still to be done
Rams and Ravens currently trying really hard to out-fail one another
October 12, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Rams and Ravens currently trying really hard to out-fail one another
This feels like a *lot* of drops by the Rams receiving corps this game
October 12, 2025 at 6:11 PM
This feels like a *lot* of drops by the Rams receiving corps this game