DrLeoStrauss
@drleostrauss.bsky.social
Russia, Asia political, econ, military & intel focus. Applied transnational legal, commercial, policy & natsec experience. RTs = interesting.
По Русски 日本語
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That time of year to review graphics shared from the Gallery in 2025.
A few favorites. Very short thread. If one of yours omitted, let me know.
First, Trump’s threat of national military occupation of US Blue cities. Mercifully, they failed (so far). To last verse Dylan’s “Hard Rain”.
1/x
A few favorites. Very short thread. If one of yours omitted, let me know.
First, Trump’s threat of national military occupation of US Blue cities. Mercifully, they failed (so far). To last verse Dylan’s “Hard Rain”.
1/x
December 23, 2025 at 5:20 PM
That time of year to review graphics shared from the Gallery in 2025.
A few favorites. Very short thread. If one of yours omitted, let me know.
First, Trump’s threat of national military occupation of US Blue cities. Mercifully, they failed (so far). To last verse Dylan’s “Hard Rain”.
1/x
A few favorites. Very short thread. If one of yours omitted, let me know.
First, Trump’s threat of national military occupation of US Blue cities. Mercifully, they failed (so far). To last verse Dylan’s “Hard Rain”.
1/x
FBI arrested Zarubina in late Nov. 2025. She served as a spotter for FSB to identify journalists, academics and military personnel for follow up contact. A role similar to that famous Russian Maria Butina played previously.
DC based CSIS think tank said to have listed her as a Fellow, etc.
DC based CSIS think tank said to have listed her as a Fellow, etc.
December 20, 2025 at 12:29 PM
FBI arrested Zarubina in late Nov. 2025. She served as a spotter for FSB to identify journalists, academics and military personnel for follow up contact. A role similar to that famous Russian Maria Butina played previously.
DC based CSIS think tank said to have listed her as a Fellow, etc.
DC based CSIS think tank said to have listed her as a Fellow, etc.
Putin has no rational incentive to alter his public maximalist criteria for a peace agreement.
The US and West are negotiating with themselves over Ukraine.
🇪🇺 €90 billion loan unwelcome to 🇷🇺 but West/US have done nothing to reverse ground truth favoring Moscow.
The US and West are negotiating with themselves over Ukraine.
🇪🇺 €90 billion loan unwelcome to 🇷🇺 but West/US have done nothing to reverse ground truth favoring Moscow.
⚡️ Putin repeats maximalist demands for peace talks as he starts annual press conference.
"Nevertheless, we see, feel, and know about certain signals, including from (Ukraine), that they are ready to engage in some kind of dialogue," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
"Nevertheless, we see, feel, and know about certain signals, including from (Ukraine), that they are ready to engage in some kind of dialogue," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
Putin repeats maximalist demands for peace talks as he starts annual press conference
"Nevertheless, we see, feel, and know about certain signals, including from (Ukraine), that they are ready to engage in some kind of dialogue," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
kyivindependent.com
December 19, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Putin has no rational incentive to alter his public maximalist criteria for a peace agreement.
The US and West are negotiating with themselves over Ukraine.
🇪🇺 €90 billion loan unwelcome to 🇷🇺 but West/US have done nothing to reverse ground truth favoring Moscow.
The US and West are negotiating with themselves over Ukraine.
🇪🇺 €90 billion loan unwelcome to 🇷🇺 but West/US have done nothing to reverse ground truth favoring Moscow.
When I was in Moscow during Soviet collapse and Fall, Russian ‘patriots’ raged against Soviet Union in this exact phraseology.
Russia made Baltics and Ukraine rich w subsidies. “Russian money for Russians”etc. And same xenophobia against migrants. Many of those today rage against Soviet collapse.
Russia made Baltics and Ukraine rich w subsidies. “Russian money for Russians”etc. And same xenophobia against migrants. Many of those today rage against Soviet collapse.
December 18, 2025 at 5:25 AM
When I was in Moscow during Soviet collapse and Fall, Russian ‘patriots’ raged against Soviet Union in this exact phraseology.
Russia made Baltics and Ukraine rich w subsidies. “Russian money for Russians”etc. And same xenophobia against migrants. Many of those today rage against Soviet collapse.
Russia made Baltics and Ukraine rich w subsidies. “Russian money for Russians”etc. And same xenophobia against migrants. Many of those today rage against Soviet collapse.
Well yes. Since 2011 at latest.
The smug insularity of the Acela Corridor is authoritarianism’s hand maiden.
The smug insularity of the Acela Corridor is authoritarianism’s hand maiden.
So much has gone wrong in US press reporting on Trump because the White House reporters are people who have exclusively covered US politics.
They need people who have worked in Hungary, Turkey, etc. The relevant knowledge isn't Reagan factoids; it's the dynamics of competitive authoritarianism.
They need people who have worked in Hungary, Turkey, etc. The relevant knowledge isn't Reagan factoids; it's the dynamics of competitive authoritarianism.
December 13, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Well yes. Since 2011 at latest.
The smug insularity of the Acela Corridor is authoritarianism’s hand maiden.
The smug insularity of the Acela Corridor is authoritarianism’s hand maiden.
Reposted by DrLeoStrauss
Zelensky is manoeuvring smartly: elections? Yes, but security needs to be guaranteed by West. Neutral zones? Great, but US troops needed. Art V style security guarantees? Sure, so NATO can't be written out. Infuriating Putin and Witkoff
Ukraine delivered its response to the latest US-drafted peace proposal aimed at ending the war with Russia to the Trump administration, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN, as the contours of a potential deal take shape and the US president continues to make clear he wants the conflict resolved.
Ukraine presents response to US peace plan as Trump says European leaders want a meeting | CNN Politics
Ukraine delivered its response to the latest US-drafted peace proposal aimed at ending the war with Russia to the Trump administration on Wednesday, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN, as the contour...
www.cnn.com
December 11, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Zelensky is manoeuvring smartly: elections? Yes, but security needs to be guaranteed by West. Neutral zones? Great, but US troops needed. Art V style security guarantees? Sure, so NATO can't be written out. Infuriating Putin and Witkoff
Afghans let the Kabul govt fall.
Pompeo and Trump negotiated the US withdrawal date with the Taliban.
Biden simply refused to resurge into Afghanistan (wisely). And honored the Trump exit timeline.
The Neocon fantasy of nation building there was a mistake from start.
Pompeo and Trump negotiated the US withdrawal date with the Taliban.
Biden simply refused to resurge into Afghanistan (wisely). And honored the Trump exit timeline.
The Neocon fantasy of nation building there was a mistake from start.
"Mustafa served alongside the United States military in Afghanistan. Like so many other Afghans who helped American forces, he later came to the US for its promise of refuge. When I met him recently, though, he had only just left an ICE detention center after months behind bars."
The US Let Afghanistan Fall. Now It's Deporting Afghans.
As the Trump administration escalates deportations, tens of thousands of Afghans are in the US without permanent legal protections.
inkstickmedia.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Afghans let the Kabul govt fall.
Pompeo and Trump negotiated the US withdrawal date with the Taliban.
Biden simply refused to resurge into Afghanistan (wisely). And honored the Trump exit timeline.
The Neocon fantasy of nation building there was a mistake from start.
Pompeo and Trump negotiated the US withdrawal date with the Taliban.
Biden simply refused to resurge into Afghanistan (wisely). And honored the Trump exit timeline.
The Neocon fantasy of nation building there was a mistake from start.
💯. Trump-Russia coercion on Ukraine is not a Korea peace plan.
In Korea, the US has been holding that line wirh boots on the ground since 1953. No such Western presence facing the Russians along the front in Ukraine
Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine envisages a DMZ like the one that divides the Korean peninsula, Simon Shuster and Jonathan Lemire report.
“It’s like the world is shattering around us,” one diplomat told them after hearing the details.
“It’s like the world is shattering around us,” one diplomat told them after hearing the details.
November 22, 2025 at 7:23 AM
💯. Trump-Russia coercion on Ukraine is not a Korea peace plan.
Asking the white race and men more broadly to impose consequences for these criminal times is hope over experience.
No one really paid for Iraq. Or the Great Financial Crisis. Or Russian election interference. Or Trump I corruption, unnecessary COVID deaths, loan theft. January 6th. And so on.
No one really paid for Iraq. Or the Great Financial Crisis. Or Russian election interference. Or Trump I corruption, unnecessary COVID deaths, loan theft. January 6th. And so on.
I am looking forward to America's Nuremberg trials when sanity and democracy are restored. There simply can't be amnesty for the shit that is happening now.
October 27, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Asking the white race and men more broadly to impose consequences for these criminal times is hope over experience.
No one really paid for Iraq. Or the Great Financial Crisis. Or Russian election interference. Or Trump I corruption, unnecessary COVID deaths, loan theft. January 6th. And so on.
No one really paid for Iraq. Or the Great Financial Crisis. Or Russian election interference. Or Trump I corruption, unnecessary COVID deaths, loan theft. January 6th. And so on.
“About 70 percent of the weapons and defense-related technology made in Estonia is exported to foreign customers. Last year, the country’s military industry revenues amounted to 500 million euro ($580 million), about €350 million of which was materiel sold overseas.”
gift article from The New York Times. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/w...
A Tiny NATO Nation Is Cashing In on the Threat Next Door
www.nytimes.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:28 PM
“About 70 percent of the weapons and defense-related technology made in Estonia is exported to foreign customers. Last year, the country’s military industry revenues amounted to 500 million euro ($580 million), about €350 million of which was materiel sold overseas.”
White race and males broadly least affected by their rejecting liberal democracy as engine of Change: cultural, pol-econ, demographic.
Crisis is not considered ideology.
But revolt against US as symbol - progress thru linear time.
Whites and males least threatened, ambivalent crisis Narrators
Crisis is not considered ideology.
But revolt against US as symbol - progress thru linear time.
Whites and males least threatened, ambivalent crisis Narrators
Of course the U.S. is not the first country to sleepwalk into authoritarianism, but the speed with which it does, and with which most of both the elites and masses collaborate or simply accept it, is truly stunning.
October 24, 2025 at 3:37 PM
White race and males broadly least affected by their rejecting liberal democracy as engine of Change: cultural, pol-econ, demographic.
Crisis is not considered ideology.
But revolt against US as symbol - progress thru linear time.
Whites and males least threatened, ambivalent crisis Narrators
Crisis is not considered ideology.
But revolt against US as symbol - progress thru linear time.
Whites and males least threatened, ambivalent crisis Narrators
Reposted by DrLeoStrauss
Moscow will reject a ceasefire on current LOC.
What Trump proposes anathema to Putin's oft-repeated terms:
a) Full RF control of oblasts not currently occupied;
b) UA limits its armed forces;
c) UA NATO membership barred;
d) Moscow veto vote on UA security guarantees;
e) Ze/others out of gov etc
What Trump proposes anathema to Putin's oft-repeated terms:
a) Full RF control of oblasts not currently occupied;
b) UA limits its armed forces;
c) UA NATO membership barred;
d) Moscow veto vote on UA security guarantees;
e) Ze/others out of gov etc
October 17, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Moscow will reject a ceasefire on current LOC.
What Trump proposes anathema to Putin's oft-repeated terms:
a) Full RF control of oblasts not currently occupied;
b) UA limits its armed forces;
c) UA NATO membership barred;
d) Moscow veto vote on UA security guarantees;
e) Ze/others out of gov etc
What Trump proposes anathema to Putin's oft-repeated terms:
a) Full RF control of oblasts not currently occupied;
b) UA limits its armed forces;
c) UA NATO membership barred;
d) Moscow veto vote on UA security guarantees;
e) Ze/others out of gov etc
The White House press corps failure to match this level of integrity speaks volumes.
October 16, 2025 at 3:22 AM
The White House press corps failure to match this level of integrity speaks volumes.
Reposted by DrLeoStrauss
Do read @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social excellent analysis:
Moscow’s protracted war grinds on and its economy exhausts capacity.
Putin likely to escalate provocations against Europe to shake its unified aid to Kyiv.
Cuba sending combat troops to Ukraine a further sign of Russia’s limits.
Moscow’s protracted war grinds on and its economy exhausts capacity.
Putin likely to escalate provocations against Europe to shake its unified aid to Kyiv.
Cuba sending combat troops to Ukraine a further sign of Russia’s limits.
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org
October 8, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Do read @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social excellent analysis:
Moscow’s protracted war grinds on and its economy exhausts capacity.
Putin likely to escalate provocations against Europe to shake its unified aid to Kyiv.
Cuba sending combat troops to Ukraine a further sign of Russia’s limits.
Moscow’s protracted war grinds on and its economy exhausts capacity.
Putin likely to escalate provocations against Europe to shake its unified aid to Kyiv.
Cuba sending combat troops to Ukraine a further sign of Russia’s limits.
Yarvin’s vacant mediocrity isn’t worth bothering about. Laughable narcissism.
Thiel, Sacks, Musk, Andreesen, Vance otoh deserve quality time with a Peace and Reconciliation Commission.
Thiel, Sacks, Musk, Andreesen, Vance otoh deserve quality time with a Peace and Reconciliation Commission.
Peter Thiel’s favorite blogger “says he’s considering leaving the U.S. because the Trump administration is failing to kill democracy to his liking and he fears political retribution from Democrats if they regain power.” via @sfstandard.com
sfstandard.com/2025/10/07/c...
sfstandard.com/2025/10/07/c...
Citing fear of Democratic ‘vengeance,’ Curtis Yarvin says he may flee the U.S.
The far-right blogger doesn’t think the Trump administration has done enough to dismantle democratic institutions.
sfstandard.com
October 7, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Yarvin’s vacant mediocrity isn’t worth bothering about. Laughable narcissism.
Thiel, Sacks, Musk, Andreesen, Vance otoh deserve quality time with a Peace and Reconciliation Commission.
Thiel, Sacks, Musk, Andreesen, Vance otoh deserve quality time with a Peace and Reconciliation Commission.
The US military - as a whole - is culturally more predisposed to misogynistic white national authoritarianism than many would like to believe. Or claim.
Watch this space. Closely.
Watch this space. Closely.
Trump to the Navy: "We have to take care of this little gnat that's on our shoulder called the Democrats."
October 5, 2025 at 10:51 PM
The US military - as a whole - is culturally more predisposed to misogynistic white national authoritarianism than many would like to believe. Or claim.
Watch this space. Closely.
Watch this space. Closely.
The full import of Hegseth and Trump comments to US military flag rank sinking in.
From FBI to armed forces and IC, the Trump white nationalist regime is determined to use US Power Ministries against the non-Christian nationalists.
From FBI to armed forces and IC, the Trump white nationalist regime is determined to use US Power Ministries against the non-Christian nationalists.
October 4, 2025 at 3:43 AM
The full import of Hegseth and Trump comments to US military flag rank sinking in.
From FBI to armed forces and IC, the Trump white nationalist regime is determined to use US Power Ministries against the non-Christian nationalists.
From FBI to armed forces and IC, the Trump white nationalist regime is determined to use US Power Ministries against the non-Christian nationalists.
Note:
Storm Shadow and SCALP could always strike Russia even without US TERCOM data.
Storm Shadow and SCALP could always strike Russia even without US TERCOM data.
🇺🇦🇺🇸👀 Zelensky: Until today, we have only used "our" long-range weapons to strike Russia.
After my meeting with Trump, perhaps we will have something else.
After my meeting with Trump, perhaps we will have something else.
October 2, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Note:
Storm Shadow and SCALP could always strike Russia even without US TERCOM data.
Storm Shadow and SCALP could always strike Russia even without US TERCOM data.
Yes. What makes this CR different is earlier, Schumer made a rational gamble.
That SCOTUS ultimately would back the almost unified lower courts rejecting Trump ultra vires acts.
By August clear Roberts et al. failed to defend the Constitution.
Schumer has many flaws. His bet (prayer?) made sense
That SCOTUS ultimately would back the almost unified lower courts rejecting Trump ultra vires acts.
By August clear Roberts et al. failed to defend the Constitution.
Schumer has many flaws. His bet (prayer?) made sense
It will not give Trump more power. Has everyone been asleep for the past six months? The government has been open and Trump has been cutting jobs and stealing power. He doesn’t need a government shutdown to do it.
October 1, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Yes. What makes this CR different is earlier, Schumer made a rational gamble.
That SCOTUS ultimately would back the almost unified lower courts rejecting Trump ultra vires acts.
By August clear Roberts et al. failed to defend the Constitution.
Schumer has many flaws. His bet (prayer?) made sense
That SCOTUS ultimately would back the almost unified lower courts rejecting Trump ultra vires acts.
By August clear Roberts et al. failed to defend the Constitution.
Schumer has many flaws. His bet (prayer?) made sense
Reposted by DrLeoStrauss
The new State Department head of the Bureau of International Organization Affairs:
newrepublic.com/post/200965/...
newrepublic.com/post/200965/...
Trump Nominee Quietly Deletes Post Calling for Liberal’s Execution
Bookmark this for the next time Republicans say the left is to blame for all political violence in this country.
newrepublic.com
September 29, 2025 at 5:24 AM
The new State Department head of the Bureau of International Organization Affairs:
newrepublic.com/post/200965/...
newrepublic.com/post/200965/...
*Not* referring to JF, of course.
My fear-America may not survive whites, white males in particular. To recognize - and accept - reality.
Ironically the most dangerous laggards may not be the Stephen Millers, Homans and MAGA mass.
Our challenge isn’t ideological. How do you tell a fish it’s wet?
My fear-America may not survive whites, white males in particular. To recognize - and accept - reality.
Ironically the most dangerous laggards may not be the Stephen Millers, Homans and MAGA mass.
Our challenge isn’t ideological. How do you tell a fish it’s wet?
September 28, 2025 at 10:19 PM
*Not* referring to JF, of course.
My fear-America may not survive whites, white males in particular. To recognize - and accept - reality.
Ironically the most dangerous laggards may not be the Stephen Millers, Homans and MAGA mass.
Our challenge isn’t ideological. How do you tell a fish it’s wet?
My fear-America may not survive whites, white males in particular. To recognize - and accept - reality.
Ironically the most dangerous laggards may not be the Stephen Millers, Homans and MAGA mass.
Our challenge isn’t ideological. How do you tell a fish it’s wet?
People underestimate how difficult it is to get others to stop hitting "reply all" to an email.
Hegseth better have a damn good reason for taking the historic and unprecedented step of summoning the most senior military officers from around the globe to a meeting. That reason better have nothing to do determining with their personal loyalty to Trump or Hegseth.
September 26, 2025 at 3:20 AM
People underestimate how difficult it is to get others to stop hitting "reply all" to an email.
In a nutshell, yes.
Except Tim Alberta and Peter Baker et al. will make sure to let everyone know privately and anonymously, they blame Schumer for not resisting Trump.
Except Tim Alberta and Peter Baker et al. will make sure to let everyone know privately and anonymously, they blame Schumer for not resisting Trump.
Opinion | I'm a Republican Senator. If I don't let Donald Trump use the Department of Justice to frivolously prosecute his personal enemies, I'll be primaried by someone who will let Donald Trump use the Department of Justice to frivolously prosecute his personal enemies.
September 26, 2025 at 2:13 AM
In a nutshell, yes.
Except Tim Alberta and Peter Baker et al. will make sure to let everyone know privately and anonymously, they blame Schumer for not resisting Trump.
Except Tim Alberta and Peter Baker et al. will make sure to let everyone know privately and anonymously, they blame Schumer for not resisting Trump.