Jon Shepherd
@grizzah.bsky.social
I used to write for ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, others. Founded the now defunct Camden Depot. Am really a toxicologist/epidemiologist.
Shane Baz would be exciting. What he does fits the approach the Orioles have, but he isnt what I would call as having a track record of dependability.
December 19, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Shane Baz would be exciting. What he does fits the approach the Orioles have, but he isnt what I would call as having a track record of dependability.
King went to the Padres.
As I noted a few days ago, Orioles didn't seem so keen on him as they are really focusing on arms seen as dependable.
As I noted a few days ago, Orioles didn't seem so keen on him as they are really focusing on arms seen as dependable.
December 19, 2025 at 12:27 PM
King went to the Padres.
As I noted a few days ago, Orioles didn't seem so keen on him as they are really focusing on arms seen as dependable.
As I noted a few days ago, Orioles didn't seem so keen on him as they are really focusing on arms seen as dependable.
It is stunning to me to see so many rec baseball leagues in this state struggling to stay afloat, meanwhile the one I am on in thr past 13 years went from 350 kids to a few thousand. I am not quite sure why we are so different.
But yeah, baseball at large is struggling.
But yeah, baseball at large is struggling.
December 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
It is stunning to me to see so many rec baseball leagues in this state struggling to stay afloat, meanwhile the one I am on in thr past 13 years went from 350 kids to a few thousand. I am not quite sure why we are so different.
But yeah, baseball at large is struggling.
But yeah, baseball at large is struggling.
Hearing that Orioles are interested in durable starters ... so Framber Valdez, Chris Bissitt, and Zac Gallen.
It would be a pretty sudden change of value, but would fit with who else they have acquired.
It would be a pretty sudden change of value, but would fit with who else they have acquired.
December 16, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Hearing that Orioles are interested in durable starters ... so Framber Valdez, Chris Bissitt, and Zac Gallen.
It would be a pretty sudden change of value, but would fit with who else they have acquired.
It would be a pretty sudden change of value, but would fit with who else they have acquired.
Remember how the Scouting Bureau eliminated every team's scouting department?
Baseball will now centralize all in-game data & tech at minor league level as they have with Statcast at the major league level. This will bring the bottom up, but critics say it's anti-spending, anti-innovation, and punitive to the teams that have invested in the future of the game. t.co/0UuQei8EtW
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6879487/2025/12/15/mlb-technology-change-minor-leagues/
t.co
December 15, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Remember how the Scouting Bureau eliminated every team's scouting department?
I do use AI to come up with takes on topics I am writing about or discussing...and about 90% of the time I think oh AI is not using the best data and 10% convinces me to frame things a different way. So far, it has not really made me change my position probably because it doesnt know enough.
December 15, 2025 at 5:18 PM
I do use AI to come up with takes on topics I am writing about or discussing...and about 90% of the time I think oh AI is not using the best data and 10% convinces me to frame things a different way. So far, it has not really made me change my position probably because it doesnt know enough.
Gemini, create for me the most dull and generic mascot possible that I can find for sale at the local flea market.
December 15, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Gemini, create for me the most dull and generic mascot possible that I can find for sale at the local flea market.
As a grad student at clemson some freshman asked me to QB their flag football team. I figured it would be simple as I was a great D3 intramural quarterback. Heck, that league was filled with guys who just missed making the Clemson team. I was overwhelmed. The game was so fast and I felt old.
December 14, 2025 at 10:58 PM
As a grad student at clemson some freshman asked me to QB their flag football team. I figured it would be simple as I was a great D3 intramural quarterback. Heck, that league was filled with guys who just missed making the Clemson team. I was overwhelmed. The game was so fast and I felt old.
Orioles are about 30 million below what they spent on payroll last year. I think the big difference so far is that last year was a big spend with risk spread around, which didn't work. This year looks like it might be a big, directed spend with a different risk profile.
What's most likely?
- Elias wanted to continue his strategy of efficiency/sustainability but is being forced by ownership to spend
- He's willingly pivoting because what he was doing before isn't working anymore
- He only operated that way in the first place because of past ownership constraints
- Elias wanted to continue his strategy of efficiency/sustainability but is being forced by ownership to spend
- He's willingly pivoting because what he was doing before isn't working anymore
- He only operated that way in the first place because of past ownership constraints
December 11, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Orioles are about 30 million below what they spent on payroll last year. I think the big difference so far is that last year was a big spend with risk spread around, which didn't work. This year looks like it might be a big, directed spend with a different risk profile.
If you want a defining difference between Chris Davis and Pete Alonso, it is that Davis sold out his swing for extreme pull power. Alonso shows more power to all fields.
Maybe that is a more sustainable approach.
Maybe that is a more sustainable approach.
December 11, 2025 at 12:32 AM
If you want a defining difference between Chris Davis and Pete Alonso, it is that Davis sold out his swing for extreme pull power. Alonso shows more power to all fields.
Maybe that is a more sustainable approach.
Maybe that is a more sustainable approach.
Long Live, Chris Davis!
December 10, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Long Live, Chris Davis!
I may be remembering things poorly, but being labeled as the "best pure hitter in the draft" has been a bit of a mark against the eventual outcome of a player.
It tends to mean...the swing is pretty. He barrels up on the ball. And then the ball kind of does nothing.
It tends to mean...the swing is pretty. He barrels up on the ball. And then the ball kind of does nothing.
December 10, 2025 at 1:01 PM
I may be remembering things poorly, but being labeled as the "best pure hitter in the draft" has been a bit of a mark against the eventual outcome of a player.
It tends to mean...the swing is pretty. He barrels up on the ball. And then the ball kind of does nothing.
It tends to mean...the swing is pretty. He barrels up on the ball. And then the ball kind of does nothing.
A draft lottery is exciting if anyone cares. When people do not care, it is just stupidity wrapped in an arbitrary outcome.
December 9, 2025 at 10:57 PM
A draft lottery is exciting if anyone cares. When people do not care, it is just stupidity wrapped in an arbitrary outcome.
I mean if your argument is who is really the 15th best team, that seems to be a good piece of evidence that this playoff system works.
December 7, 2025 at 10:47 PM
I mean if your argument is who is really the 15th best team, that seems to be a good piece of evidence that this playoff system works.
This feels like a slight overpay, but it may simply be where the market is. Going an extra 2 or 3 million per year isnt the end of the world.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
BREAKING: The New York Post has learned Dylan Cease to Blue Jays. $210M, 7 years
November 27, 2025 at 12:00 AM
This feels like a slight overpay, but it may simply be where the market is. Going an extra 2 or 3 million per year isnt the end of the world.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
Not sure where this leaves the Orioles.
Kenta Maeda's MLB journey looks complete. For some reason, he has always struck me as undervalued. When he signed, I pegged him for 16.8 WAR based on my conversion CRAP model...he landed on 15.0. Although I think his ability was somewhat questioned, the health angle was a bit louder.
November 26, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Kenta Maeda's MLB journey looks complete. For some reason, he has always struck me as undervalued. When he signed, I pegged him for 16.8 WAR based on my conversion CRAP model...he landed on 15.0. Although I think his ability was somewhat questioned, the health angle was a bit louder.
Being a youth coach can be a repeated lesson in the whole ridiculousness of it all.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Being a youth coach can be a repeated lesson in the whole ridiculousness of it all.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
So I am coaching a 12yo who is raw, but has it as a pitcher. Mid 60s, good not great control, one of the better guys in the area. Who knows what the teen years will do.
He made a decision to go all in on soccer.
When Suzuki made his way through Baltimore, Brady was a jack of all trades. He loved dressing up and throwing to hitters in the cage, helping as a hitting consultant.
It was somewhat controversial.
It was somewhat controversial.
The Angels hired Brady Anderson as hitting coach AND John Mabry as assistant hitting coach.
Great day to @remembersomeguys.bsky.social
Great day to @remembersomeguys.bsky.social
November 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
When Suzuki made his way through Baltimore, Brady was a jack of all trades. He loved dressing up and throwing to hitters in the cage, helping as a hitting consultant.
It was somewhat controversial.
It was somewhat controversial.
Also, if Grayson throws 25 starts this year with a sub 4.50 ERA, that will be baseball malpractice by the Orioles.
November 19, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Also, if Grayson throws 25 starts this year with a sub 4.50 ERA, that will be baseball malpractice by the Orioles.
So one thing to keep in mind, I think there is a good chance that the total value GRod has is greater than what Ward has. However, I am sadly aware that the average value per year is not greater and is probably able to be acquired somewhat easily in the future market.
November 19, 2025 at 7:04 PM
So one thing to keep in mind, I think there is a good chance that the total value GRod has is greater than what Ward has. However, I am sadly aware that the average value per year is not greater and is probably able to be acquired somewhat easily in the future market.
In the weeds thought today. MLB free agency should be at 25yo for HS draftees, 26yo for sophomore or freshman draftees, and 27 yo for college draftees. For 4 years after being drafted, they should be immune from 40 man roster placement.
November 19, 2025 at 5:08 PM
In the weeds thought today. MLB free agency should be at 25yo for HS draftees, 26yo for sophomore or freshman draftees, and 27 yo for college draftees. For 4 years after being drafted, they should be immune from 40 man roster placement.
One of the issues creeping up last year was that we had a Wizard of Os situation where maybe what looked intimidating and powerful appears less so once the curtain is drawn back.
November 19, 2025 at 1:31 PM
One of the issues creeping up last year was that we had a Wizard of Os situation where maybe what looked intimidating and powerful appears less so once the curtain is drawn back.
Perhaps a bit blunt, but this is a succinct way to put it.
This front office, which is full of value maximizing nerds, gave up four years of control of Rodriguez for one year of control of Ward. Think about what that says about what they think of Rodriguez's health.
November 19, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Perhaps a bit blunt, but this is a succinct way to put it.
Waking up to the Ward-GRod deal...looks like the Orioles are prioritizing the 2026 season and have free agency confidence.
November 19, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Waking up to the Ward-GRod deal...looks like the Orioles are prioritizing the 2026 season and have free agency confidence.