Matthew Arp
@izzarp.bsky.social
Reposted by Matthew Arp
-- WEEK 16 #NFL 🏈 Seeding Probabilities --
For many teams, it is practically certain that they will play in the playoffs. This makes the question of possible seeds more interesting.
The following table shows seed probabilities based on 50k simulations of the remaining season.
For many teams, it is practically certain that they will play in the playoffs. This makes the question of possible seeds more interesting.
The following table shows seed probabilities based on 50k simulations of the remaining season.
December 16, 2025 at 3:29 PM
-- WEEK 16 #NFL 🏈 Seeding Probabilities --
For many teams, it is practically certain that they will play in the playoffs. This makes the question of possible seeds more interesting.
The following table shows seed probabilities based on 50k simulations of the remaining season.
For many teams, it is practically certain that they will play in the playoffs. This makes the question of possible seeds more interesting.
The following table shows seed probabilities based on 50k simulations of the remaining season.
$26,000 dollars for SIDES?
RIP Rob Reiner! incredible work in every decade of his life. Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street (Mad Max scene) youtu.be/rC9uDbq6WWE?... via @YouTube
The Wolf of Wall Street (Mad Max scene)
YouTube video by Joey S
youtu.be
December 16, 2025 at 4:29 AM
$26,000 dollars for SIDES?
I found my spirit animal.
Raccoon gets drunk at a Virginia liquor store and passes out in bathroom
Raccoon gets drunk at Ashland ABC store and passes out in bathroom
Talk about a trashed panda.
www.axios.com
December 4, 2025 at 3:28 AM
I found my spirit animal.
How long before Thielen's agent asks for a release so he can go to a contender?
December 3, 2025 at 6:06 AM
How long before Thielen's agent asks for a release so he can go to a contender?
Natural selection is a mouse deciding to wander into the cat's room at 6 am.
a man standing in front of a window with the words man you picked the wrong house below him
ALT: a man standing in front of a window with the words man you picked the wrong house below him
media.tenor.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Natural selection is a mouse deciding to wander into the cat's room at 6 am.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
To all the weirdos defending Megyn Kelly: 15 year olds are underage, and that is statutory rape.
Pretty simple
Pretty simple
November 14, 2025 at 3:27 AM
To all the weirdos defending Megyn Kelly: 15 year olds are underage, and that is statutory rape.
Pretty simple
Pretty simple
Reposted by Matthew Arp
"Americans—people in general—should not be subject to the whims of those who despise them. We deserve better than to be governed by those who disdain what we believe and how we live."
Americans shouldn't be governed by people who hate half of us
Political hostility is intensifying and most partisans believe the other side is made up of bullies.
reason.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:20 PM
"Americans—people in general—should not be subject to the whims of those who despise them. We deserve better than to be governed by those who disdain what we believe and how we live."
How tf did I miss this banger getting released a year ago.
youtu.be/0ZPt2nTCtrw?...
youtu.be/0ZPt2nTCtrw?...
Brooks & Dunn - Hillbilly Deluxe (with HARDY) (Official Audio)
YouTube video by BrooksandDunnVEVO
youtu.be
November 4, 2025 at 5:15 PM
How tf did I miss this banger getting released a year ago.
youtu.be/0ZPt2nTCtrw?...
youtu.be/0ZPt2nTCtrw?...
Reposted by Matthew Arp
Spoiler for an upcoming piece. I often hear people dismissing Canada's housing crisis by saying, "Mike, home prices skyrocketed everywhere, it's not just a Canada thing".
Turns out... nope. It really is a Canada thing.
Turns out... nope. It really is a Canada thing.
November 2, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Spoiler for an upcoming piece. I often hear people dismissing Canada's housing crisis by saying, "Mike, home prices skyrocketed everywhere, it's not just a Canada thing".
Turns out... nope. It really is a Canada thing.
Turns out... nope. It really is a Canada thing.
Toronto sports since 1968:
Blue Jays won 2 World Series (and another appearance)
Toronto FC won MLS Cup (and another appearance)
Raptors won a NBA Championship
Maple Leafs
Blue Jays won 2 World Series (and another appearance)
Toronto FC won MLS Cup (and another appearance)
Raptors won a NBA Championship
Maple Leafs
November 2, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Toronto sports since 1968:
Blue Jays won 2 World Series (and another appearance)
Toronto FC won MLS Cup (and another appearance)
Raptors won a NBA Championship
Maple Leafs
Blue Jays won 2 World Series (and another appearance)
Toronto FC won MLS Cup (and another appearance)
Raptors won a NBA Championship
Maple Leafs
Football 🤝Math
Really enjoyed this video exploring the question of "If passing is better than running, why do teams run so much?"
Let's talk about game theory!!!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPXZ...
Let's talk about game theory!!!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPXZ...
Passing is better…so, why run?
YouTube video by Michael MacKelvie
www.youtube.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Football 🤝Math
Feel free to disregard any mock draft that doesn't have the Browns drafting at least one offensive lineman with one of their 3 first and second round picks (all currently projected in the top 38).
October 28, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Feel free to disregard any mock draft that doesn't have the Browns drafting at least one offensive lineman with one of their 3 first and second round picks (all currently projected in the top 38).
Reposted by Matthew Arp
We break down the latest Trump approval numbers compared to other contemporary presidents from @gelliottmorris.com in the context of the 2026 midterm elections. lispop.ca/nexus/trump-...
In sum, we find that this is exceptionally informative and gives us pause to evaluate the current situation. /1
In sum, we find that this is exceptionally informative and gives us pause to evaluate the current situation. /1
Trump In the Midterm Elections: Public Opinion as a Thermostat – LISPOP
lispop.ca
October 27, 2025 at 7:24 PM
We break down the latest Trump approval numbers compared to other contemporary presidents from @gelliottmorris.com in the context of the 2026 midterm elections. lispop.ca/nexus/trump-...
In sum, we find that this is exceptionally informative and gives us pause to evaluate the current situation. /1
In sum, we find that this is exceptionally informative and gives us pause to evaluate the current situation. /1
I can't wait for the Saudi-funded Netflix stream of this populist heavyweight cage match.
The premier of Canada’s most powerful province — and arguably the country’s most successful politician today — has gotten under Donald Trump’s skin again.
Trump’s No. 1 Canadian Enemy: Doug Ford Relishes Antagonist Role
The premier of Canada’s most powerful province — and arguably the country’s most successful politician today — has gotten under Donald Trump’s skin again.
bloom.bg
October 24, 2025 at 7:12 PM
I can't wait for the Saudi-funded Netflix stream of this populist heavyweight cage match.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
If the Voting Rights Act is deemed unconstitutional, it won't be long until these malicious cartoon villains come for the Civil Rights Act. The biggest trick the Devil ever played was the "both sides are the same" nonsense.
October 16, 2025 at 2:35 AM
If the Voting Rights Act is deemed unconstitutional, it won't be long until these malicious cartoon villains come for the Civil Rights Act. The biggest trick the Devil ever played was the "both sides are the same" nonsense.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
Toronto simply does not want to solve the housing crisis.
After TO Council passed a motion indicating the City was open to Alternative Solution Proposals for a single stair in apts up to 4 storeys, I applied for a single stair in a 3 storey Part 9 6plex.
I’m told it’s the first one, so it’s a test case. Here’s how it’s going.
#singlestair #sixplex
I’m told it’s the first one, so it’s a test case. Here’s how it’s going.
#singlestair #sixplex
October 16, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Toronto simply does not want to solve the housing crisis.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
History won’t praise Democrats for playing by the rules if it’s the reason we lose our country.
October 7, 2025 at 8:30 PM
History won’t praise Democrats for playing by the rules if it’s the reason we lose our country.
Super thrilled to be back.
A new report from Bright Line Watch finds experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy. The rating is dragged down by Trump's attacks on institutions, a weak legislature, political violence, and partisan gerrymandering www.gelliottmorris.com/p/experts-no...
Experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy
Experts say political violence, Trump's attacks against non-partisan agencies and institutions, and partisan gerrymandering are their top concerns
www.gelliottmorris.com
October 1, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Super thrilled to be back.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
Normalize just posting a recipe with no backstory at all.
September 29, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Normalize just posting a recipe with no backstory at all.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
always kind of mystified by people who say stuff like “I don’t want to vote when it feels like a choice between stubbing your toe and getting shot” as though that’s a challenging dilemma
The flattening of political conflict into "people I like" vs "everybody else" elides that the far-right option ("authoritarian nihilism") is actually materially worse for a lot of people than neoliberalism
September 22, 2025 at 7:46 PM
always kind of mystified by people who say stuff like “I don’t want to vote when it feels like a choice between stubbing your toe and getting shot” as though that’s a challenging dilemma
Reposted by Matthew Arp
Republicans have long cast themselves as defenders of free speech against cancel culture and the censorial impulses of the political left.
But now conservatives apparently see no problem policing speech, at least when they're the ones who are offended. reason.pub/46fkP2Z
But now conservatives apparently see no problem policing speech, at least when they're the ones who are offended. reason.pub/46fkP2Z
Republicans support free speech, unless it offends them
Vice President J.D. Vance and Sen. Cynthia Lummis are among the latest conservatives to turn their backs on free speech when it comes to their ideological opponents.
reason.com
September 19, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Republicans have long cast themselves as defenders of free speech against cancel culture and the censorial impulses of the political left.
But now conservatives apparently see no problem policing speech, at least when they're the ones who are offended. reason.pub/46fkP2Z
But now conservatives apparently see no problem policing speech, at least when they're the ones who are offended. reason.pub/46fkP2Z
Reposted by Matthew Arp
Finland avoided full subjugation to Moscow thanks to a combination of the broader geopolitical context and its own defense preparedness—not by being friendly toward the Soviets.
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
foreignpolicy.com
September 16, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Finland avoided full subjugation to Moscow thanks to a combination of the broader geopolitical context and its own defense preparedness—not by being friendly toward the Soviets.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
That is too late defector.com/sports-shoul...
Sports Should Not Start At 1 A.M. Eastern | Defector
Last night or early this morning, depending on your timezone, we had ourselves a big boxing match. On Netflix, of all places. Canelo Alvarez vs Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, a splashy marquee boxing matchup...
defector.com
September 14, 2025 at 5:59 PM
That is too late defector.com/sports-shoul...
Spot on.
This is who Charlie Kirk was: defector.com/this-is-who-...
This Is Who Charlie Kirk Was | Defector
Certainly the dead tend to be thought of more fondly than they were in life. Still, it’s quite disorienting to watch American institutions obediently line up to display the utmost solemnity for a…
defector.com
September 12, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Spot on.
Reposted by Matthew Arp
"Young Canadians are stuck in a holding pattern. They’re not less ambitious. They’re not unwilling to work. They’re just facing a system that no longer rewards effort the way it once did." #cdnpoli #GenZ #Canada thehub.ca/2025/08/26/n...
Need to Know: Adulthood is increasingly on hold for young Canadians—and it’s not their fault
thehub.ca
August 29, 2025 at 11:13 PM
"Young Canadians are stuck in a holding pattern. They’re not less ambitious. They’re not unwilling to work. They’re just facing a system that no longer rewards effort the way it once did." #cdnpoli #GenZ #Canada thehub.ca/2025/08/26/n...