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Reposted by James McCaw

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Jun 13

Australian friends!

I'm going to be visiting Sydney in just over a week. I'll be at UNSW on June 23-25th and Macquarie on June 26-27th.

I'd love to catch up with people in person, and also will be giving (at least) two talks at UNSW.

The first is science-of-science modeling talk, on June 23:

UNSW School of BABS Special Seminar

Peer review meltdown
Carl T. Bergstrom, University of Washington

Host/Chair Prof Mark Tanaka

Monday 23 June 2025

1pm-2pm

Mathews Theatre C

You’ve seen it yourself. Peer review is coming apart at the seams. Editors face a mighty struggle to recruit reviewers. Researchers are overwhelmed with review requests. Authors wait months or longer for low-quality reviews of their work. In this talk, I present a series of simple mathematical models to illustrate what is happening and why. (1) An elite journal relies on peer review to identify the top papers; knowing the quality of the peer review process, authors self-screen and send only their best work to this journal. But when the reward from publishing in the elite journal increases, submission volume increases. (2) When submission volume increases, review quality drops as the most qualified reviews are no longer available — but we prove that when review quality drops, submission volume necessarily increases as more authors try to sneak in undeservedly. This feedback process swamps the journals with submissions and erodes the quality of review. (3) We next consider what happens as elite journals proliferate and show that, paradoxically, as the number of elite journals increases, researchers self-screen more assiduously, but the review load continues to increase. To illustrate the consequences, we consider welfare measures for authors, reviewers, and readers. (4) Finally, we explore the way in which aggressive desk rejection policies can partially check this peer review meltdown.

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James McCaw @jmccaw.bsky.social · Jun 6

As was I (same conference)

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Reposted by James McCaw

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Jun 4

Possibly the best thing I've read about ChatGPT yet.

h/t @melaniemitchell.bsky.social

amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...

Diabolus Ex Machina

This Is Not An Essay

amandaguinzburg.substack.com

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Mar 26

For example, explaining that smoking causes lung cancer "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."

Helping people understand that vaccines prevent diseases and do not cause autism "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."

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Reposted by James McCaw

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Mar 26

A core element of public health involves working with the public to help them understand how they can protect themselves and their neighbors from disease.

This memo (see the next post) equates this vital aspect of public communication with censorship.

Max Kozlov @maxkozlov.bsky.social · Mar 26

Search terms that NIH staff should use include:

Media literacy (!!!)
Disinformation
Social media
Misinformation
Social distancing
Lockdown
Masks

The guidance instructs staff that "it is most important to identify studies that would appear to be attempts to manipulate public opinion".

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · Mar 26

Here NIH officials target contracts that "may be related to any form of censorship at all or *directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes*."

Directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes IS public health. It's also education.

Max Kozlov @maxkozlov.bsky.social · Mar 26

Here's the internal e-mail that outlines all this.

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Adam Rogers @jetjocko.bsky.social · Mar 26

A science agency wants to stop knowing which ideas are true and which ones aren’t.

Max Kozlov @maxkozlov.bsky.social · Mar 26

🚨 NIH sent out another data call, this time for projects "related to any form of censorship at all or directing people to believe one idea over another related to health outcomes… e,g., any contracts to promote COVID vaccine uptake," I'm told.

These data calls have recently preceded terminations.

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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · Mar 26

Nailed it

Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · Mar 26

Profit motives absolutely generate a great deal of societal value. However, the societal value of a university is completely rooted in the fact that they *aren't* profit driven. This is what allows universities to pursue new knowledge for the public good....

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ARC Tracker @arc-tracker.bsky.social · Mar 25

I would very much like the researchers we already have in Australia to be properly funded, before we consider new money for poaching people from other countries. But one cannot help but contrast this ERC announcement with the narrow thinking here in Australia.

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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · Mar 24

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2

Author summary Influenza A H3N2 causes yearly epidemics in temperate regions causing substantial mortality and morbidity, particularly in older individuals. Infection with influenza elicits an immune ...

doi.org

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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · Mar 20

Very important paper that avoids saying ANZ had some easily followable approach to COVID, while at the same time drawing out genuinely general principles for pandemic response - not least that it requires but is not receiving adequate resources.

Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · Mar 19

Preparing for the next pandemic: insights from Aotearoa New Zealand’s Covid-19 response

(with a better link in case the original one doesn't work)
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · Mar 13

Latest post on measles vaccines and the fallacy of ‘one more study to settle things’: kucharski.substack.com/p/a-wild-vac...

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BK. Titanji @boghuma.bsky.social · Mar 11

In one week:
- An unnecessary study to investigate a debunked vaccine conspiracy has been authorized.
- Federal grants to study vaccine hesitancy have been rescinded.
- False conspiracies regarding measles are been pushed by health leadership.
The scale of damage this is causing will last decades.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft @firefoxx66.bsky.social · Feb 28

I don't know how else to say this except for bluntly:

It is not normal to have outbreaks of preventable diseases in wealthy countries.
It is not normal to have children dying from preventable diseases in wealthy countries.

This is the first US measles death in 10 years. There should be none.

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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · Feb 28

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia)
Developing an integrated modelling and health economics approach to understand Strep A transmission and control.
with Rebecca Chisholm, Angela Devine
at La Trobe University
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2281

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Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · Feb 21

this is how it's done

PLOS Biology @plosbiology.org · Feb 21

PLOS has issued a statement on recent US Executive Orders and scientific integrity.

We are determined to stand firmly behind our mission, our values and our principles, and against any attempt at censorship or undermining of the core principles of scientific inquiry.

plos.io/3D4O8cH

PLOS statement on recent US Executive Orders and scientific integrity - The Official PLOS Blog

Since its founding over twenty five years ago PLOS has been dedicated to advancing open science, ensuring that knowledge is accessible to…

plos.io

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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · Feb 19

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia)
Mathematical modelling of antivirals against influenza virus infection
with @ada-w-yan.bsky.social @jmccaw.bsky.social
at University of Melbourne
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2268

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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · Dec 15

The quadratic formula is one of the great achievements of human civilisation; artists of all people should realise that we should provide support to and education in all such endeavours regardless of immediate utility or variability in subjective enjoyment.

Richard D. Morey @richarddmorey.bsky.social · Dec 15

Teachers don't have time machines to tell what every student will find useful in the future - as though life is some process that ends in a fixed, easily-determined outcome and a teacher's goal is merely to teach things that lead up to that future for every child

A comic showing a teacher presenting the quadratic formula, with the caption '"To prepare you for how much of adult life is wasted on needless tasks, you're going to memorize this, use it a lot over the next four years, and then never see it again for the rest of your life.' [sic, missing the close quotation]. It was shared within a post by the artist, who said "My cartoon in this week's issue of The New Yorker. Huge thanks to all my middle school and high school math teachers for inspiring this cartoon by wasting years of my life."

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Juliet Gerrard @julietgerrard.bsky.social · Dec 16

www.royalsociety.org.nz/news/open-le...

Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities

Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities Tēnā koe Prime Minister, The role of the Royal Society Te Apārangi, as set out in the Royal Society of New Zealand Act,...

www.royalsociety.org.nz

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casey briggs @caseybriggs.com · Dec 13

“in seeking to conflate and confuse on its centrepiece policy, the Coalition is doing little more than treating voters like mugs, assuming they'll be more interested in style over substance.”

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12...

Coalition's nuclear costs effectively comparing apples and elephants

In the world of comparing apples and oranges, the Coalition's claim that its nuclear plan would be hundreds of billions cheaper than Labor's looks to have come from comparing apples and elephants.

www.abc.net.au

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Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · Dec 6

Struck today looking at the {EpiNow2} contributors page how much work it takes to maintain a package over the long term.

Below link is filtered to just the maintenance period in which there has been no "output" (in the traditional academic sense).

github.com/epiforecasts...

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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · Dec 4

This is so backward
1. Science is more than just commercialisable widgetry
2. Making progress on our biggest problems (climate change, infectious diseases, misinfo to name a few) will need more collaboration between STEM and hum/social sci not less.

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ARC Tracker @arc-tracker.bsky.social · Dec 4

Make no mistake, colleagues: the exclusion of humanities & social science research from national competitive funding could easily happen here in Australia. The signs & actors are already clear. We let it happen at our collective peril.

Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · Dec 4

This is so backward
1. Science is more than just commercialisable widgetry
2. Making progress on our biggest problems (climate change, infectious diseases, misinfo to name a few) will need more collaboration between STEM and hum/social sci not less.

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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · Dec 2

Historical revisionism on Covid threatens NZ's pandemic preparedness, by @marcdaalder.bsky.social

newsroom.co.nz/2024/12/03/h...

Historical revisionism on Covid threatens NZ's pandemic preparedness

Comment: The Royal Commission report fundamentally validates the strategic and tactical choices made during the acute phase of the pandemic

newsroom.co.nz

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James McCaw @jmccaw.bsky.social · Nov 25

Inspired by @michaelplanknz.bsky.social 's pictures, and that hiking is one of my go-to pastimes, I thought I'd post a few photos of my favourite places in Victoria, Australia - Mt Buffalo (in colour) and near Mt Magdala (in b&w). These are from summer 2023, both covered in snow during the winter.

Near Mt Magdala, Victoria Australia, looking towards Mt Buller.

Looking west from the Horn, Mt Buffalo, Victoria Australia

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