Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 7h

A thing of beauty:

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 8h

Huuge gap between Mouth and Trousers, with the gap between mouth and trousers varying by trading partner.

4

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Disco Central Banker @centralbanker.bsky.social · 1d

I’m thrilled to announce my new ECB working paper on singleness of money and fungibility of stablecoins with other payment instruments! 🍾

Some BIS colleagues argued that stablecoins fail the singleness of money test… and the FT had this amazing quote…

But I disagree!

2 4 12

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘Food price rises have exceeded core price rises in every country except the Czech Republic and China since 2019.’ www.ft.com/content/de31...

15 30

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

George Pearkes @peark.es · 1d

The only out you get for weak labor markets if this is true would be a sudden, sharp drop in the neutral rate. Boy, I wonder if financial markets are indicating policy is super tight?

*MIRAN: I THINK A LOT OF THAT UNCERTAINTY HAS RESOLVED

10y real yield for the past year (it's low, indicating falling restrictiveness in terms of real rates)

S&P 500 for the past year (it's soared, inconsistent with interest rates being restrictive to say the least)

High yield spreads over Treasuries for the past year (they're low, which indicates low risk premiums for risky corporate bonds and...not restrictive policy)

2s10s yield curve for the past year (it's steepened, which is...the opposite of what happens when policy is running too tight for current conditions which results in a flattening/inversion)

1 2 16

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 2d

Government shutdowns are actually good for the markets because now we only have OpenAI announcements to react to rather than the pesky data.

4 28

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

If politics are going crazy in several European countries one after the other, I think it is time to go past blaming the failures of individual political actors (and there are quite a few, both in the UK and France) to looking at the systemic pressures our political systems are failing to deal with.

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 2d

If you are overly focused on the admittedly increasingly batsh*t character of British politics, don‘t neglect the batsh*t character of French politics.

Emma Jacobs @emmavj.bsky.social · 2d

Ah, the famous French work-life balance

on.ft.com/4mTFYVb French prime minister resigns less than a month after appointment

23 100 390

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 2d

French bond spreads are making Italy and Spain look good:

3

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 2d

Next in line for the French prime ministership:

a man in a suit and tie is making a silly face

ALT: a man in a suit and tie is making a silly face

media.tenor.com

4

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Jack Schickler @jackschickler.bsky.social · 2d

Sébastien Lecornu 🇫🇷 has resigned after serving 0.55 Liz Trusses in office

5 24 100

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Roger Cormier @yayroger.bsky.social · 2d

Two dudes whom despite their best efforts have no power in Canada.

Razzball @razzball.bsky.social · 26d

19 340 1.5K

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 2d

To wit: here's that obligatory tumble in the yen. Note that last week's Koizumi-driven gains have been wiped, but that selling pressure seems to be abating.

5

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Mark Rendell @markrendell.bsky.social · 3d

Trump's America First economic vision is pushing Canada to follow suit, reviving a kind of economic nationalism not seen since the 1980s. I unpack the risks, trade-offs and opportunities of #Carney's new 'comprehensive industrial strategy' #cdnpoli #cdnecon
www.theglobeandmail.com/business/eco...

Pushed by Trump, Canada enters a new era of economic nationalism

The U.S. President’s ‘America First’ economic vision is pushing Ottawa to reach for a Canada First toolkit – one that would have been inconceivable a year ago

www.theglobeandmail.com

3 9

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 3d

Agree, structural impediments mean the yen will remain a carry funder for some time yet, but public hostility to rising prices is likely to constrain deficit-funded government largesse and limit Takaichi’s sway over the central bank. Could be a reversal after the obligatory tumble at the Asia open.

1 2

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 3d

The obvious thing for Democrats to do now is to insist publicly (and by sponsoring legislation to such effect) that it is indeed the case that the apparatus of the Federal Government can be funded solely by tariffs alone.

2 1 10

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 4d

Citi: “On our definition, US equities are in a bubble. Historically, markets display strong forward returns after entering a bubble, and being bearish is only beneficial once you exit bubble territory.” www.businessinsider.com/stock-market...

7 4 18

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 4d

Gonna sound weird, but be careful on the cobblestones when it rains. So many bad tourist injuries on them!

1 3

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

Yes, in my limited efforts in presenting on the history of money, it’s taken literally months of work to establish anything resembling a linear narrative. Looking forward to seeing your final product!

1

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

Random question for you: have you found any evidence for the claim that the Maria Theresa is still in use in parts of Africa? Looked into it a few years back and didn’t find anything conclusive…

1

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Brendan Greeley @bhgreeley.bsky.social · 5d

What could be more American than a silver dollar with a portrait of the President? Well, like a lot of things we enjoy here, the American silver dollar came from somewhere else. It didn't begin its life as a symbol of American pride, but of American dependence. /1 www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

Treasury Department considers minting a $1 Trump coin

The draft design of the coin, which was overseen by the Office of the U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach, features Trump’s profile on one side of the coin.

www.politico.com

4 11 18

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

Unironically speedrunning Reagan's comment: "Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it"

1

Reposted by Karl Schamotta

Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 5d

The entertaining part of this is that he keeps wanting to do things that are 180 degrees out of phase with Republican free market orthodoxy. “Let’s impose tariffs so we can give everybody $1000.” Lol, lmao.

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 6d

TRUMP SAYS HE IS CONSIDERING TAXPAYER REBATES OF $1,000 TO $2,000 USING TARIFF MONEY

1 2 6

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

Prediction markets think the shutdown will last more than a week but less than a month:

4

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

This administration is certainly trying its damndest to derail it, but no. The dollar's share of global currency turnover has risen from the early nineties, and none of the data I see are showing any dramatic reversal.

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

Inspired by the work done by the geniuses at the BIS in the past, here's a network map of global currency markets in 2025, illustrating the dominance of the four major trading hubs:

1 1 3

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d

In a reflection of the broader community’s apathy toward the issues that afflict financial professionals, there are no pubs open during non-farm payrolls release time in Toronto this morning.

a woman in a green sweater is holding a cup of food

ALT: a woman in a green sweater is holding a cup of food

media.tenor.com

1 6