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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · Aug 5

I hope the Commission made it clear that the €600 billion figure of course refers to current prices - and that most of it will be mobilised through EIB loans, with a leverage ratio of approximately 1:19.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Aug 5

Trump on his EU trade deal: "The details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want. Anything. I can do anything I want with it."

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Aug 5

I think they promised him a new bank.

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · Aug 1

Just a few weeks to go before the EU dives into what will likely be a bruising battle over its next budget.

@romyha.bsky.social, @eulaliarubio.bsky.social, @lindnerjs.bsky.social l and I took a closer look at the Commission’s proposal.

We think successful negotiations now hinge on four things:

Ripe for Reform – What’s in the EU Budget Proposal and What Should Come Next

On 16 July 2025, the European Commission unveiled its proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028-35, kicking off what promises to be a highly fraught and marathon set of nego...

www.delorscentre.eu

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Wessel van Rensburg @wildebees.bsky.social · Jul 30

"A divided EU can still accept a bad deal that is better than no deal. But only a united EU with a clearly mandated Commission can engage in a sustained trade war and weather the short-term domestic costs."

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 29

Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:

No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal

As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...

bst-europe.eu

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Diego Velazquez @diegoinbxl.bsky.social · Jul 30

This is good.

You can't expect the Jeunesse d'Esch to play like Real Madrid.

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 29

Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:

No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal

As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...

bst-europe.eu

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · Jul 29

15% tariffs, breaches of WTO rules, more tech dependency – the US deal is a far cry from what the EU wanted. This was not a one-off accident, but exposes longstanding structural weaknesses in EU trade policy that will affect any future negotiation. My analysis🧵 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal

As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...

bst-europe.eu

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 29

Many seem surprised about the EU-US trade deal. But this was not an accident and it would likely happen the same way if we did it all over again. Read my colleague Etienne Höra (@etiennehoera.d-64.social)'s latest on the structural drivers of EU trade policy that have led to a bad deal:

No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal

As details on Sunday’s EU-US trade deal emerge, Europeans are split in two camps. Some believe the 15 percent tariff ceiling on most products is the best the EU could get from President Donald Trump’s...

bst-europe.eu

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

János Allenbach-Ammann @janosallamm.bsky.social · Jul 29

Well, « shadow of plausible deniability » is a much nicer way of saying the above. bsky.app/profile/luca...

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Jul 28

Well, it is mainly France hitting out - Merz supports the deal but points out it hurts EU exporters.

Be that as it may, this is very disingenous: the contours of the deal we were headed for was clear for weeks. The two most powerful EU member-states could've stopped it.

www.ft.com/content/00ec...

Germany and France hit out at EU-US deal

Euro slides as investors bet that long-awaited trade agreement will hurt Eurozone economy

www.ft.com

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · Jul 28

I don't want to blow anyone's mind with insight behind the curtain of international relations here, but in multi-billion dollar deals between gigantic economies, it's pretty useful to have agreed clarity on what the fuck's actually been agreed.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

What's the realo version without optimism?

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

My informed sense, also reflecting the reporting on the negotiations. But of course these negotiations are confidential, so we don't know for sure.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

I don't think that is correct. My sense is that member states were very much involved, albeit behind closed doors (which makes sense, given that this was a negotiation situation).

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

Might or might not be true, but my point is that the chicken resides in Berlin, Paris or Rome rather than in Brussels.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

Excellent and honestly shameful example of the shadow of plausible deniability: Member states (and of course France among them) gave the Commission clear directions and are now running away from the results, blaming the Commission instead. At least own it collectively, it makes us look less stupid.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

I am all for the COM to take independent stances. But the reality is that in a matter that is perceived as core economic interest by big member states, the COM is not free to do what it likes. It needs said member states ten times a day in other dossiers. In that sense it is very much not the ECB.

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

That was my point: I think saying the Commission had the choice of doing nothing ignores the political reality that it did not have the necessary backing for that option to be viable. The fact that it is formally in charge does not mean it can do what it wants. It's not the ECB.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

EU trade policy has the Commission operating largely on its own with member states giving guidance but staying in the shadow of plausible deniability. That might be the right setup for day-to-day trade technocracy. It's definitely not the setup for a full-scale hyperpolitical trade war with the US.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

I don't think that is how it would have played out. The COM would have gotten under massive fire the moment the new tariffs would have hit from interest groups and from the big exporting member states, and especially the big ones. That is not something the Commission can handle for very long.

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · Jul 28

Important takeaway for the next round of this: by itself, COM isn’t equipped to manage the domestic politics of this, it needs stronger backing from capitals. Convenient for member states to hide behind it and then blame it for the outcome (sometimes more than they blame the US I feel).

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

I agree, but COM was also caught between a rock and a hard place: I am not sure member state governments, and in particular the one in Berlin, would have had the polical stamina for a full-scale trade war. And of course they would have blamed the COM for all the collateral damage it would have had.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Jul 28

I think European leaders - both national and in the EU - are underestimating what it will do to their publics to be humilated by Trump.

Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 28

I agree, but COM was also caught between a rock and a hard place: I am not sure member state governments, and in particular the one in Berlin, would have had the polical stamina for a full-scale trade war. And of course they would have blamed the COM for all the collateral damage it would have had.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Jul 28

I think European leaders - both national and in the EU - are underestimating what it will do to their publics to be humilated by Trump.

Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.

Simon Nixon @nixonsimon.bsky.social · Jul 28

My latest on the spectacularly one-sided EU-US trade deal.

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Jul 24

Stimmt. Ich glaube, manche sehen die Risiken durchaus – sind aber defaitistisch.

Warum glauben so viele in Berlin, Deutschland könne Chinas Industriepolitik nichts entgegensetzen?

Dabei haben wir riesige fiskalische Spielräume und eine starke industrielle Basis.

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 24

Der Kollege Tordoir macht sich gerade sehr verdient damit, immer wieder auf die Gefahren des zweiten China-Schocks für Deutschland hinzuweisen. Mein Gefühl ist allerdings, dass er damit nicht ausreichend gehört wird...

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Jul 24

Deutsche Exporte nach China stürzen ab. Ein transatlantisches Handelsabkommen könnte Europas Industrie zusätzlich schwächen. Der zweite China-Schock trifft – aber ist kein Naturgesetz. Was das für Deutschland bedeutet und wie eine Antwort aussehen kann, schreibe ich hier:
www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...

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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · Jul 24

Der Kollege Tordoir macht sich gerade sehr verdient damit, immer wieder auf die Gefahren des zweiten China-Schocks für Deutschland hinzuweisen. Mein Gefühl ist allerdings, dass er damit nicht ausreichend gehört wird...

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Jul 24

Deutsche Exporte nach China stürzen ab. Ein transatlantisches Handelsabkommen könnte Europas Industrie zusätzlich schwächen. Der zweite China-Schock trifft – aber ist kein Naturgesetz. Was das für Deutschland bedeutet und wie eine Antwort aussehen kann, schreibe ich hier:
www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...

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Reposted by Lucas Guttenberg

BSt Europe @bst-europe.bsky.social · Jul 23

Ahead of tomorrow’s EU-China summit, the EU faces a tough balancing act between economic interests and geopolitical concerns.

What should Brussels do and what should it avoid?

This new piece by @corajungbluth.bsky.social lays out the dos and don’ts:
bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

Dos and Don’ts for the EU-China Summit

EU-China relations are experiencing a period of rising tensions. There is no reason for optimism that this will change any time soon. European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen emphasised in ...

bst-europe.eu

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