Magnus Ross
@magnusar.bsky.social
58 followers 240 following 21 posts
Postdoc at UCL AI Center. Currently work on: forecasting, uncertainty quantification, antimicrobial resistance. Previously: Gaussian processes, physics informed ML, trading power. https://magnusross.github.io
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
magnusar.bsky.social
The seminar will happen at the UCL AI Centre in the 90 High Holborn building
magnusar.bsky.social
Come to our seminar with @wessel.ai on "Foundation Models for the Earth System", it's going to be a cracker! It's open to non-UCL people also.
A promotional poster for a seminar about foundation models for the Earth system. The image contains a QR code with a link for more details
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/ucl-ai-centre-seminar-wessel-bruinsma-microsoft-research-amsterdam-tickets-1399791095849?aff=oddtdtcreator
magnusar.bsky.social
it's the dream blogging crossover!
magnusar.bsky.social
Good to get some recognition for my incessant posting of Ben's blogs in the Alphaville comments section!
beenwrekt.bsky.social
Testing the waters of finance blogging, I wrote about deep learning memes, random features, and the glory of kernel smoothing.
You keep using that word
Can you use deep learning memes to pick meme stocks?
www.argmin.net
Reposted by Magnus Ross
londonregioncnd.bsky.social
Take note of the legal advice from Amnesty International and more detailed information from @netpol.org below. CND supporters should be aware that point 4 could impact on how supporters refer to non-violent direct action.
magnusar.bsky.social
great post, please do more like it :)
Reposted by Magnus Ross
themerl.bsky.social
ChatGPT is down but The Museum of English Rural Life still stands, proving once again that Silicon Valley cannot compete with the history of rural England and its people.
Reposted by Magnus Ross
jim.londoncentric.media
What news editors and politicians think people want: "Just tell them they'll get a tram somewhere in their city if they're nice."

What people really want: "SHOW ME THE FULL GPS ROUTE PLAN COMPLETE WITH LINKS TO THE WIKIPEDIA PAGES OF THE DISUSED RAILWAY LINES THAT COULD COME BACK INTO USE."
Reposted by Magnus Ross
kityates.bsky.social
Cancer Research UK today published a report which highlights changes in cancer survival rates over the last 50 years.

Many headlines (like this one from the Guardian) have chosen to report the ‘doubling of cancer survival rates’ since the 1970s.

But that's misleading...

1/18
Reposted by Magnus Ross
michaelcaley.bsky.social
the inexplicable core of Starmerism, as a truly new formation in world politics, is seeing governance as wholly an extension of general election campaign messaging
peark.es
this is a very strange message from Starmer. First, you're boosting the far right which is, uh, risky. Second, your government was elected LAST YEAR why are you talking like the election campaign is under way?!?!!

*STARMER: TORIES SLIDING INTO ABYSS, CHOICE IS LABOUR OR REFORM
Reposted by Magnus Ross
Reposted by Magnus Ross
olihawkins.com
This is a key chart from the story, which shows more than 16 million $MELANIA tokens were purchased in the two and a half minutes before the memecoin was announced in a post on Truth Social. In contrast, the first $TRUMP token was purchased 42 seconds after launch.
A line chart showing the total number of $MELANIA tokens available for sale in the main liquidity pool immediately before and after the memecoin was announced. At the time Melania Coin was publicly revealed, 16.7 million tokens had already been purchased.
Reposted by Magnus Ross
michaelcaley.bsky.social
it's very odd watching the election news in the UK when Labour still has *years* left on their massive governing majority

they can just ignore this stuff and create prosperity and get popular

and what's particularly weird is that it's not just commentators it's Labour themselves that don't get it
magnusar.bsky.social
You know you're in for a banger paper when the this is the first line of the abstract...
A screenshot of a paper on infectious diseases with the first line of the abstract highlighted. It reads "Like all fields of medicine, Infectious Diseases is rife with dogma that underpins much clinical practice."
Reposted by Magnus Ross
quantian.bsky.social
Stealing from X for clout, but someone bought a staggering 25% of the *entire* open interest of a semiconductor ETF (which is 20% NVDA) in a single OTM put option yesterday and today. $3.7 billion of underlying stock, 8ish delta, $23 mil of premium, so levered 15:1 betting on the NVDA embargo news.
magnusar.bsky.social
one for the debtors!
oc-econ.bsky.social
I recently reviewed The Paradox of Debt by Richard Vague for the Society of Professional Economists.

Check it out at the links below ⤵️
Reposted by Magnus Ross
robjhyndman.com
A new Python edition of "Forecasting: Principles and Practice" is now available online at otexts.com/fpppy/. Thanks to @azulgarza.bsky.social, Cristian Challu, Max Mergenthaler, Kin Olivares & Nixtla for making this happen. #forecasting #python
Forecasting: Principles and Practice, the Pythonic Way
otexts.com
magnusar.bsky.social
It's frustrating that this stuff isn't picked up by reviewers, and that the Exchange dataset is still being used when it's known to be a flawed benchmark. The fact this model beats the others is irrelevant, because all the models give bad results.
magnusar.bsky.social
It makes no sense of the uncertainty to be constant over the forecast horizon here (or in most time series models); the series is extremely unlikely to drop to half of its value in 1 time step, but this model suggests that has a ~5% chance of happening.
magnusar.bsky.social
I just came across this paper from ICLR 2024 which proposes an intricate combination of transformers and diffusion models to generate forecasts with these uncertainty bounds (red box), which are clearly inappropriate and could likely be outperformed by modelling the data as a random walk...
A grid of plots of time series forecasts, the proposed model's forecasts are highlighted by a red box. The uncertainty estimates for the proposed model are constant over the forecast horizon and are poorly calibrated.