Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · May 12

Do allies and adversaries shape U.S. views on cyber attribution? In a new paper at @intlinteractions.bsky.social, I show that allies’ endorsements boost Americans' trust in attribution and support for retribution, while adversary denials produce limited and inconsistent effects.

Blame Games in Cyberspace: How Foreign Cues Shape Public Opinion on Cyber Attribution and Retribution

Conflicting narratives about who is responsible for a cyberattack are often thought to create uncertainty about the aggressor’s identity, which in turn could lead to greater restraint in state resp...

www.tandfonline.com

1 2

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Dov H. Levin @dovlevin.bsky.social · Apr 7

Are you a graduate student planning to present a paper at the 2025 APSA conference on an IR/Foreign Policy topic? Need some funds to cover costs of attending? APSA's Foreign Policy section travel grant is there just for you- Apply Now!

1 9 9

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · Mar 20

I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :(

So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/

Screenshot of the linked Quarto website, with input checkboxes to change different conditions for a regression model that predicts economic performance based on US political party, with a reported p-value

58 440 1.5K

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Mar 9

Great essay on why we should be paying more attention to attention in our information-rich era.

Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · Mar 9

The attention economy is devouring politics. Social scientists need to understand how. As do we all. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-attent...

The attention economy is devouring politics

Social scientists need to understand how. As do we all.

www.programmablemutter.com

2

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Mar 3

Highly recommended! Well-deserved!

NPR @npr.org · Mar 3

The film is based on a true story set in 1970s Rio de Janeiro, when Brazil was living under a military dictatorship.

Brazil's 'I'm Still Here' wins best international feature at the Oscars

The film is based on a true story set in 1970s Rio de Janeiro, when Brazil was living under a military dictatorship.

www.npr.org

2

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Mar 3

É do Brasil 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷

Folha de S.Paulo @folha.com · Mar 3

Ainda Estou Aqui vence Oscar de melhor filme internacional

'Ainda Estou Aqui' vence o Oscar de melhor filme internacional, o 1º do Brasil

Longa faz espécie de reparação histórica ao conquistar prêmio depois de 'Central do Brasil', também de Walter Salles, perder

www1.folha.uol.com.br

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Feb 9

Last week in my Cyber Policy & National Security class, students mentioned DOGE's access to federal systems, which led us to discuss some cyber vulnerabilities. This week, I’m referring them to @profsaunders.bsky.social & @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social article in @foreignaffairs.com. It's a must-read!

Does DOGE Pose a National Security Risk?

Uncertainty about access and authority will worry allies and tempt adversaries.

www.foreignaffairs.com

1 3 6

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Jan 29

This! Since moving back to the U.S., I've gained a few pounds. Same diet (we cook almost everything from scratch), but now I drive everywhere. In Rio, I walked and took public transit all the time. Big difference!

William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · Jan 29

Americans will go on vacation to a place that isn’t a car sewer, walk and take public transit for 8-12 hrs. a day, notice a change in their health, and attribute it to “they must not have the Illuminati chemicals here”

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Jan 29

Ainsley Earhardt makes a case for RFK Jr: "When you go to Europe, the food is delicious. It's so fresh. And you don't gain weight if you eat a big bowl of pasta. So we want that to come here to America."

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · Jan 7

We're getting the social media crisis wrong
The bigger problem isn't disinformation. It's degraded democratic publics. On Zuckerberg today and Musk over the last few weeks. www.programmablemutter.com/p/were-getti...

We're getting the social media crisis wrong

The bigger problem isn't disinformation. It's degraded democratic publics

www.programmablemutter.com

51 260 670

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Letterboxd @letterboxd.social · Jan 6

Fernanda Torres wins Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama for I'm Still Here 🎥

#GoldenGlobes boxd.it/BPEO

27 510 1.9K

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Nov 3

This piece that came out a week ago at @goodauth.bsky.social might be what you are looking for

Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers?

Likely voters, past voters, demographics and more – how pollsters weight 2024 election poll data matters a great deal.

goodauthority.org

1 1

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · Oct 20

📚🚨 I posted 11 new chapters of my upcoming book!

Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Results with #marginaleffects for #RStats and Python.

These are early drafts and I really need your feedback! Errors, content requests, improvements, etc.

marginaleffects.com

3 54 140

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Siv Cheruvu @sivcheruvu.bsky.social · Sep 19

UT-Dallas is hiring for an open rank faculty position in IR! We're particularly interested in scholars studying IPE and/or Conflict. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions! polisky psjminfo

jobs.utdallas.edu/postings/27562

Open Rank Faculty Positions in International Relations

Position Description The School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences (EPPS) at The University of Texas at Dallas is seeking applications for two open-rank positions specializing in international...

jobs.utdallas.edu

5 6

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Elizabeth Sacha Baroness Cohen @alixabeth.bsky.social · Sep 11

Me, to students asking for my syllabus in August: “I have concepts of a plan”

2 12 150

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · Sep 4

Did you know we are now on Substack?

We're publishing articles there daily, so if that's your preferred source, make sure you're subscribed.

goodauthority.substack.com

2 5

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Aug 14

I’m excited to share that I'm starting a new position as an Assistant Professor of Cyber Security, Technology, and Policy at The University of Texas at Dallas! I’ve been holding onto this news for a while and can’t wait for what’s ahead. A huge thank you to everyone who helped me get here.

1 2

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Jun 11

I am thrilled to share that I have successfully defended my dissertation. Huge thanks to everyone who has played a part in making this journey worth celebrating! I’m particularly grateful to Jane Fountain, @profmusgrave.bsky.social, and Alasdair Roberts for their guidance and support.

1 23

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · May 13

I don't know if this has registered so much outside Brazil, but speaking as someone who knows the region well, and still has lots of family there: this has been unimaginably horrible and devastating. The climate dystopia has arrived, and it's really, really awful... www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Persistent Brazil floods raise specter of climate migration

Devastating and ongoing flooding in southern Brazil is forcing some of the half million displaced residents to consider uprooting their lives from inundated towns to rebuild on higher ground.

www.reuters.com

24 580 1.1K

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Oct 31

The UK's AI Safety Summit is almost upon us and @slehuede.bsky.social has a great commentary on it. A must-read particularly after the Biden-Harris administration singled out the summit in the fact sheet of its executive order on AI yesterday.

skynet

AI is global, but the UK government’s summit is insular

As the UK prepares to host its AI Safety Summit, Sebastián Lehuedé, a researcher at the University of Cambridge’s Centre of Governance and Human Rights, argues that far from being a ‘global’ e...

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Oct 30

The White House just released an Executive Order on AI. It requires the most powerful AI systems to share safety test results, orders NIST to develop standards and tests to ensure that AI systems are safe and secure, and calls on Congress to pass bipartisan data privacy legislation.

skynet

FACT SHEET: President Biden Issues Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intel...

Today, President Biden issued a landmark Executive Order to ensure that America leads the way in seizing the promise and managing the risks of artificial intelligence (AI). The Executive Order establi...

www.whitehouse.gov

8 26

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

kim yi dionne (she/her) @dadakim.bsky.social · Oct 16

We at @goodauth.bsky.social are excited to share this call for the Good Authority fellows program. Deadline is January 15. Application is brief. Please share!

(And yes, in my mind, I'm calling it goodfellas.)

goodauthority.org/news/good-au...

Announcing the Good Authority fellows program

Apply by Jan. 15, 2024 for the Good Authority fellowship and be a regular contributor to our blog on politics and political science.

goodauthority.org

2 41 48

Reposted by Marcelo M. Leal

John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Sep 22

New from me @goodauth.bsky.social: I show how a change in the Cooperative Election Study from select-all-that-apply to forced-choice produce a big "shift" in immigration attitudes. Maybe only 40 people will care about this, but here's the graph!

goodauthority.org/news/the-pro...

2 32 74

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Sep 20

Hi @profmusgrave.bsky.social, could you add me to the polisky list?

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Aug 23

A hill I'm willing to die on: answering yes to survey questions that ask if I'm Latino.

Marcelo M. Leal @mleal.bsky.social · Aug 23

I'm always amazed that the whole American continent has issues with the term "American," yet most U.S. persons do not know that this is an issue at all. @profmusgrave.bsky.social is an exception to this pattern and has just published a great piece reflecting on this.

1 1 7