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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 16d

Wow! Marco Annunziata & I somewhat agree.

The Fed's econ & rate outlook may not add up. Is the Fed's quest for insurance vs labor market weakness underappreciating upside risks to inflation, accommodative fin conditions & the mystical neutral rate? 👇

www.omfif.org/2025/09/the-...

The Fed's economic and rate outlook might not add up - OMFIF

After the September Federal Reserve rate cut, investors anticipate further rapid and decisive monetary easing. However, the data give reason to doubt whether a series of rate cuts is – or indeed shoul...

www.omfif.org

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 21d

Interesting post!

Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.bsky.social · 21d

7️⃣ - The US Fed holds two-thirds of its foreign-exchange reserves in euro
• Euro-denominated assets are a popular investment for the US Fed
• Other major central banks hold at most ~40% of their foreign-exchange reserves in euro (and often much less)

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 21d

Bill Dudley joined me for a joint Bretton Woods Committee/OMFIF discussion on yest's FOMC outcome & monetary policy outlook.👇👇 Huge thanks to Bill, & two wonderful discussants: Ellen Meade (ex-Fed, now Duke U & James Egelhof (BNP Paribas/ex-FRBNY).

www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15

OMFIF Live - OMFIF

September FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy Live: Thursday 18 September 14:00 (London) William Dudley, chair of the Bretton Woods Committee and former president of the Federal Reserve B...

www.omfif.org

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 29d

The Fed has missed its 2% inflation target for years. Despite the assumption inflation will revert to 2%, short & long term forces abound, pushing up inflation.

Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇

www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...

Is the US creeping towards a 3% inflation regime? - OMFIF

The Federal Reserve aims for 2% inflation of personal consumption expenditures over the long term. Why 2%? The Fed argues ‘when households

www.omfif.org

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Sep 1

Absolutely right. Too much talk and not enough action!

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · Aug 31

We needed secondary sanctions three years ago 👇

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · Aug 31

Left chart shows direct EU exports to Russia (red) and indirect exports to Russia via Central Asia (blue). Right chart shows the same for the US. You have to wonder what the EU's endgame is. Export numbers are down a bit, but the EU still trades massively with the enemy. Are we really this greedy?

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Sep 1

A guest OMFIF commentary from my friend and colleague, Marco Annunziata.

He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO!

Huge thanks to Marco.

www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...

Is there any hope for Europe? - OMFIF

Is there any hope for Europe? No. Earlier this year we saw a burst of irrational exuberance about Europe.

www.omfif.org

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Sep 1

Spot on from Brad. Totally right that tariffs can be rewired. Two added points: 1) that Admin might need to pay back IEEPA tariffs is a big deal for Bessent et al; 2) I find odd that alleged trade deficit emergency isn't drawing more attention to our whopping fiscal deficits given S-I identity.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Sep 1

Important from Brad on the court ruling Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal. But if Europeans hoped this would sink US tariffs, they’ll be disappointed: the admin has other tools.

The other implication is lingering uncertainty — one reason Brussels is keen to seal a deal.

www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

How Court Rulings Could Affect Trump’s Aggressive Trade Policies

After another legal setback, the next high-stakes ruling on President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is expected to come from the Supreme Court. But the administration could…

www.cfr.org

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Reposted

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Aug 26

My thoughts in the NYT on where we stand now with the Fed. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...

Opinion | What the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court and Senate Need to Do After Lisa Cook’s Firing

Trump’s move to fire a Federal Reserve governor threatens the independence of the central bank. Its autonomy is not lost, but three institutions must act.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted

Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · Aug 26

Honorary Alphavillain Lee Buchheit on what is shaping up to be ANOTHER sovereign debt restructuring lawsuit of the century

Yes, it involves Argentina again. Obvs. on.ft.com/41jlTju

Disrupting the delicate sovereign debt equilibrium

Default leads to lawsuit; lawsuit leads to precedent; precedent leads to suffering.

on.ft.com

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Reposted

Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · Aug 22

A reminder: Dr. Cook's mortgages are not the real issue. The threat to US macro stability is the clear intention of the Trump Admin to influence the composition of the FOMC in defiance of the structures designed to insulate the institution from such influence. Thank you for coming to my TED talk

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 21

Major bond markets face deep pain & trouble. Many bond traders and holders are going to lose their shirts.
There is no easy way out of today's budget messes without enormous pain. Society is in denial & more populism/despair is on the way. 👇

www.omfif.org/2025/08/fisc...

www.omfif.org

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 18

A gaggle of European leaders rushing to see Trump to protect not only Ukraine but their own hides from being sold out to Putin shows how weak Europe unfortunately is on the global stage. And half-baked Alaska shows America has lost its way & marbles.👇
www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-...

The US and Russia are in charge of Europe - OMFIF

The spectacle of European leaders chaperoning Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, to the White House shows how, in post-post cold war Europe, the US and Russia are in charge – and Europe is ...

www.omfif.org

1

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 17

Thank you, Gov DeWine.

It's recognized in the DMV that Cleveland, for example, is a safe, crime-free, utopian panacea & veritable garden spot of the world.

Please have your troops help bring Cleveland to DC!

The Columbus Dispatch @dispatch.com · Aug 17

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has ordered 150 National Guard members to support the District of Columbia National Guard as states send troops.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine orders 150 National Guard members to DC as states send troops

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has ordered 150 National Guard members to support the District of Columbia National Guard as states send troops.

bit.ly

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 16

Beyond talk, Merz should join the Zelensky/Trump meetings and any future Summits.

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · Aug 16

Ukraine’s European allies will speak on Sunday, a day before Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with Donald Trump in Washington on Friday’s talks in Alaska with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s Allies Plan Talks Before Zelenskiy’s Washington Trip

Ukraine’s European allies will speak on Sunday, a day before President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with Donald Trump in Washington on Friday’s talks in Alaska with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, France said.

bloom.bg

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 16

This is a wonderful thought piece. Very relevant and sound conclusions.

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · Aug 8

Shitcoins or stablecoins?

Replacement for fiat currencies or rival?

How can we understand the political economy of cryptocurrencies & its implications for global finance, state sovereignty, & the international system?

🧵 & our new paper with @tompepinsky.com:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 15

Great piece by Mark Copelovitch!!

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · Aug 15

We're doing everything you'd do if you to give it away. But the reality is that no one actually wants the "exorbitant privilege" for themselves...at least not 🇪🇺 or 🇨🇳, the only viable alternatives. And that, like our own problems, is entirely about politics.

My new @wpr.bsky.social piece:

Dollar Dominance Is Here to Stay

If there’s going to be a major shift away from the U.S. dollar, someone needs to provide a viable alternative. That isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 8

Thanks for circulating this piece and the kind words.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Aug 8

A good place to start is @msobel.bsky.social excellent blog.
Mark is a veteran of the US Treasury and the IMF.

Europeans and Germans have not traditionally thought so much about China's currency undervaluation, but I think they should start to take note.

4/4

www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...

It’s time for China to allow large renminbi appreciation - OMFIF

The renminbi exchange rate is woefully undervalued – an impediment to overhauling China’s distorted growth model and a major contributor to global trade tensions. While it is no secret that the curren...

www.omfif.org

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Aug 6

It's high time for significant appreciation of a hyper-undervalued RMB. My thoughts on why China should move now to make it happen.👇

www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...

It’s time for China to allow large renminbi appreciation - OMFIF

The renminbi exchange rate is woefully undervalued – an impediment to overhauling China’s distorted growth model and a major contributor to global trade tensions. While it is no secret that the curren...

www.omfif.org

1

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Jul 25

Great article and a perspective that decidedly warrants close consideration and reflection!

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · Jul 25

This is one of those things where I'd very much like to be very wrong, but I very much fear that I am not.

A Banking Expert Says Trump's Latest Crypto Policy Could Put the Whole Economy at Risk

The Genius Act, which regulates stablecoins, could set the stage for financial panics and unsafe lending practices.

www.inc.com

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Jul 22

The IMF's External Sector Report falls short mainly b/c the Fund soft pedals its China work. It needs to take a stand on China's BOP data or multilaterally consistent #s won't add up. It should berate US more over misguided fiscal/trade policy. My thoughts👇

www.omfif.org/2025/07/flaw...

Flawed IMF external policy and exchange rate work - OMFIF

The International Monetary Fund just released its flagship 2025 External Sector Report. Despite much to praise, this report is a missed opportunity, highlighting major flaws in the Fund’s external and...

www.omfif.org

Reposted

Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · Jul 2

Ahead of the jobs report @bencasselman.bsky.social and I looked into how Trump's immigration policies make it hard for the Fed to know if the labor market is weakening, putting a divided central bank in a more fraught position as it debates rate cuts www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b... @nytimes.com

How Immigration Could Muddy the Jobs Numbers

www.nytimes.com

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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Jul 2

Official gold diversification & the feverish run-up in gold prices could be built on sand. It's largely b/c authorities keep massive stocks off market, ineptly managing national balance sheets. Time for authorities to sell gold stocks & use the proceeds.
www.omfif.org/2025/07/fina...