Political Gambler
@paulmotty.bsky.social
30 years+ semi or professional gambler. Political analyst for Betfair and bylines at GQ, Politico, Reuters, CityAM.
www.politicalgambler.com
Media enquires: [email protected]
www.politicalgambler.com
Media enquires: [email protected]
36% overall
31% economy
29% healthcare
This is, more or less, his floor. Lower would imply the Cult is disintegrating.
apnorc.org/projects/tru...
31% economy
29% healthcare
This is, more or less, his floor. Lower would imply the Cult is disintegrating.
apnorc.org/projects/tru...
Trump’s approval rating slips on the economy and immigration - AP-NORC
Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration are down about 10 points since March. Border security remains Trump’s best issue with 50% approval.
apnorc.org
December 11, 2025 at 7:39 PM
36% overall
31% economy
29% healthcare
This is, more or less, his floor. Lower would imply the Cult is disintegrating.
apnorc.org/projects/tru...
31% economy
29% healthcare
This is, more or less, his floor. Lower would imply the Cult is disintegrating.
apnorc.org/projects/tru...
Reposted by Political Gambler
MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?
NOEM: We haven't deported veterans
MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea
NOEM: We haven't deported veterans
MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea
December 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?
NOEM: We haven't deported veterans
MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea
NOEM: We haven't deported veterans
MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea
Reposted by Political Gambler
As it stands, Gavin Newsom and AOC are dominating the Democrat nominee betting for 2028. Swerve both in favour of these 5 alternatives.
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
Democratic Nominee Odds: 5 Alternatives To Gavin Newsom For 2028 US Election
Who are the challengers to the California Governor?...
www.gambling.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:52 PM
As it stands, Gavin Newsom and AOC are dominating the Democrat nominee betting for 2028. Swerve both in favour of these 5 alternatives.
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
Reposted by Political Gambler
3 years from the next US Election in 2028, we already have very strong favourites for both for the Democrat and Republican nominations. Can we trust short-odds at such an early stage of a presidential election?
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
Next US President Odds: Are Early Favourites Too Short In The Betting?
We look at the candidates to win the 2028 US presidential election....
www.gambling.com
December 4, 2025 at 7:31 PM
3 years from the next US Election in 2028, we already have very strong favourites for both for the Democrat and Republican nominations. Can we trust short-odds at such an early stage of a presidential election?
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
As it stands, Gavin Newsom and AOC are dominating the Democrat nominee betting for 2028. Swerve both in favour of these 5 alternatives.
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
Democratic Nominee Odds: 5 Alternatives To Gavin Newsom For 2028 US Election
Who are the challengers to the California Governor?...
www.gambling.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:52 PM
As it stands, Gavin Newsom and AOC are dominating the Democrat nominee betting for 2028. Swerve both in favour of these 5 alternatives.
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/demo...
I can't keep up. What is the Bee Cult?
December 10, 2025 at 10:08 AM
I can't keep up. What is the Bee Cult?
Reposted by Political Gambler
The PayPal Mafia and their backers, China and Russia, are the biggest threats to the future of humanity
December 6, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The PayPal Mafia and their backers, China and Russia, are the biggest threats to the future of humanity
Reposted by Political Gambler
Anyone remember when Keir Starmer got free tickets to the footy and everyone kicked off?
December 8, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Anyone remember when Keir Starmer got free tickets to the footy and everyone kicked off?
Beyond belief. Expect to hear nothing from Britain's self-appointed guardians of fiscal rectitude, who couldn't comment often enough about 'Biden's inflation'.
The Trump administration just announced they will refuse to release the October inflation report.
December 8, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Beyond belief. Expect to hear nothing from Britain's self-appointed guardians of fiscal rectitude, who couldn't comment often enough about 'Biden's inflation'.
Exactly
The calls from America this weekend to "abolish the EU" are for one simple reason: the EU is the only thing that can keep European nation-states from becoming Russian or American vassals.
The US has declared rhetorical war on the EU
The calls from America this weekend to destroy the EU are revealing. They hate the union because it's the only thing that can keep European countries from being Russian or American vassals.
davekeating.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Exactly
Essential reading. Putin's Global Crime Syndicate's USA branch has published its plans for Europe. It is predictably grim.
The US National Security Strategy released overnight has shocked Europeans.
In truth, its plans for Europe are just a reiteration of what the State Department already publicly posted back in May. But Europeans have not wanted to listen.
In truth, its plans for Europe are just a reiteration of what the State Department already publicly posted back in May. But Europeans have not wanted to listen.
New US security strategy lays bare European regime change plans
While the Trump administration claims they no longer want the US to "prop up the entire world order like Atlas", in the same document they dictate to Europe what it can and can't do.
davekeating.substack.com
December 7, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Essential reading. Putin's Global Crime Syndicate's USA branch has published its plans for Europe. It is predictably grim.
Reposted by Political Gambler
just as addendum : ive just read the new US foreign strategy paper and what youve outlined is more crucial than ever, its demonstrably now US stated policy to influence foreign democracies
December 5, 2025 at 12:49 PM
just as addendum : ive just read the new US foreign strategy paper and what youve outlined is more crucial than ever, its demonstrably now US stated policy to influence foreign democracies
Why would US *security* policy require them to interfere to change the politics of European countries who are allies, subordinates of USA?
Obviously, to change their opposition to the Russian mafia state.
Obviously, to change their opposition to the Russian mafia state.
December 5, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Why would US *security* policy require them to interfere to change the politics of European countries who are allies, subordinates of USA?
Obviously, to change their opposition to the Russian mafia state.
Obviously, to change their opposition to the Russian mafia state.
Reposted by Political Gambler
#Russia threatening Faroe Islands — population 55,000 — w retaliation after Faroese Parliament gave government the authority to bar Russian fishing companies from its waters
#Ukraine
#Ukraine
#UkraineWar, Day 1,380: #Macron to #Europe Leaders — “A Chance the US Will Betray #Ukraine”
#Russia #TrumpRussia
eaworldview.com/2025/12/ukra...
#Russia #TrumpRussia
eaworldview.com/2025/12/ukra...
Ukraine War, Day 1,380: Macron to Europe's Leaders - "A Chance the US Will Betray Ukraine" - EA WorldView
In a call about the Trump camp’s collusion with the Kremlin, European leaders agree on the risk of Washington selling out Ukraine and Europe.
eaworldview.com
December 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM
2 weeks ago, Farage and Reform looked vulnerable over Nathan Gill's prison sentence for shilling for Russia. Effectively treason.
It has taken a decade to get any focus on this massive, critically important scandal.
What do prominent Reform/Putin opponents do? Change the subject!
It has taken a decade to get any focus on this massive, critically important scandal.
What do prominent Reform/Putin opponents do? Change the subject!
Awful strategy is one reason we lose.
Failure to understand the audience. Is there a single voter who cares about historic childhood racism who would consider Farage?
Cluelessly flooding the zone with exactly what those who intend to fill it with shit want us to.
Failure to understand the audience. Is there a single voter who cares about historic childhood racism who would consider Farage?
Cluelessly flooding the zone with exactly what those who intend to fill it with shit want us to.
The attention paid, significance attached to the story about Farage's childhood racism is absurd.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
December 5, 2025 at 8:34 AM
2 weeks ago, Farage and Reform looked vulnerable over Nathan Gill's prison sentence for shilling for Russia. Effectively treason.
It has taken a decade to get any focus on this massive, critically important scandal.
What do prominent Reform/Putin opponents do? Change the subject!
It has taken a decade to get any focus on this massive, critically important scandal.
What do prominent Reform/Putin opponents do? Change the subject!
Awful strategy is one reason we lose.
Failure to understand the audience. Is there a single voter who cares about historic childhood racism who would consider Farage?
Cluelessly flooding the zone with exactly what those who intend to fill it with shit want us to.
Failure to understand the audience. Is there a single voter who cares about historic childhood racism who would consider Farage?
Cluelessly flooding the zone with exactly what those who intend to fill it with shit want us to.
The attention paid, significance attached to the story about Farage's childhood racism is absurd.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
December 5, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Awful strategy is one reason we lose.
Failure to understand the audience. Is there a single voter who cares about historic childhood racism who would consider Farage?
Cluelessly flooding the zone with exactly what those who intend to fill it with shit want us to.
Failure to understand the audience. Is there a single voter who cares about historic childhood racism who would consider Farage?
Cluelessly flooding the zone with exactly what those who intend to fill it with shit want us to.
The attention paid, significance attached to the story about Farage's childhood racism is absurd.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
December 5, 2025 at 8:27 AM
The attention paid, significance attached to the story about Farage's childhood racism is absurd.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
1: Weaponising views held as a child signals lack of a better argument.
2: Reform voters don't care. They will see it as evidence of 1.
3: It distracts from more effective lines of attack.
3 years from the next US Election in 2028, we already have very strong favourites for both for the Democrat and Republican nominations. Can we trust short-odds at such an early stage of a presidential election?
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
Next US President Odds: Are Early Favourites Too Short In The Betting?
We look at the candidates to win the 2028 US presidential election....
www.gambling.com
December 4, 2025 at 7:31 PM
3 years from the next US Election in 2028, we already have very strong favourites for both for the Democrat and Republican nominations. Can we trust short-odds at such an early stage of a presidential election?
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
My latest for gambling.com
www.gambling.com/uk/news/2028...
Reposted by Political Gambler
Jeff Bezos and the Washington Post are at it again.
December 3, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Jeff Bezos and the Washington Post are at it again.
Reposted by Political Gambler
PUNCHBOWL: “.. GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term. Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican:
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 3:37 PM
PUNCHBOWL: “.. GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term. Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican:
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
@punchbowlnews.bsky.social
Reposted by Political Gambler
Crazy shit: the connections. Two very excellent reads:
“Hiding In Plain Sight”, and “They Knew”, both by @sarahkendzior.bsky.social.
From *before* his media stardom days. And the interconnected lines between verifiable international criminals and the donor elite and their politicians. Clarifying.
“Hiding In Plain Sight”, and “They Knew”, both by @sarahkendzior.bsky.social.
From *before* his media stardom days. And the interconnected lines between verifiable international criminals and the donor elite and their politicians. Clarifying.
November 24, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Crazy shit: the connections. Two very excellent reads:
“Hiding In Plain Sight”, and “They Knew”, both by @sarahkendzior.bsky.social.
From *before* his media stardom days. And the interconnected lines between verifiable international criminals and the donor elite and their politicians. Clarifying.
“Hiding In Plain Sight”, and “They Knew”, both by @sarahkendzior.bsky.social.
From *before* his media stardom days. And the interconnected lines between verifiable international criminals and the donor elite and their politicians. Clarifying.
No question about it. The US Christian Right has been infiltrating our right wing politics for 30 years. It is now a global, kleptocratic alliance, including the Russian Orthodox church. See 'The Family' on Netflix.
Two key differences, I think, have so far saved the UK from full-on MAGA madness: our relationship to religion and our regulation of guns. We should be fully prepared for the far right to start prodding both. ~AA
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Why Tommy Robinson supporters are turning to Christianity
The Church of England is grappling with what to do about followers of the far-right figure embracing faith.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 10:54 AM
No question about it. The US Christian Right has been infiltrating our right wing politics for 30 years. It is now a global, kleptocratic alliance, including the Russian Orthodox church. See 'The Family' on Netflix.
Please tell me this is fake 😬
November 23, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Please tell me this is fake 😬
Reposted by Political Gambler
This is an actual Daily Express 'story' about Question Time.
Yes, really.
Yes, really.
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 PM
This is an actual Daily Express 'story' about Question Time.
Yes, really.
Yes, really.
My latest on the betting around Donald Trump's exit date for gambling.com
Does the Epstein scandal mark the beginning of the end?
www.gambling.com/uk/news/dona...
Does the Epstein scandal mark the beginning of the end?
www.gambling.com/uk/news/dona...
Donald Trump Exit Odds: Does Epstein Scandal Mark The Beginning Of The End?
Republican and Democrat lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on the latest funding bill....
www.gambling.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:29 PM
My latest on the betting around Donald Trump's exit date for gambling.com
Does the Epstein scandal mark the beginning of the end?
www.gambling.com/uk/news/dona...
Does the Epstein scandal mark the beginning of the end?
www.gambling.com/uk/news/dona...