Phillies Forecaster
@phillsforecast.bsky.social
Forecasting Phillies Win Totals and Playoff Chances
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During the past few seasons, I built a model to project total Phillies wins and playoff chances.
I created this account to share my projections. I plan to publish updates periodically.
I plan to release my projections on March 23, 2025
I created this account to share my projections. I plan to publish updates periodically.
I plan to release my projections on March 23, 2025
Seeing some concern that JT being unsigned means he’s not coming back.
Two things: (1) this is likely JT’s last chance at a significant payday day. I see his desire to get the most money possible.
(2) Phillies have made it obvious they’ll match whatever market offers.
Two things: (1) this is likely JT’s last chance at a significant payday day. I see his desire to get the most money possible.
(2) Phillies have made it obvious they’ll match whatever market offers.
December 22, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Seeing some concern that JT being unsigned means he’s not coming back.
Two things: (1) this is likely JT’s last chance at a significant payday day. I see his desire to get the most money possible.
(2) Phillies have made it obvious they’ll match whatever market offers.
Two things: (1) this is likely JT’s last chance at a significant payday day. I see his desire to get the most money possible.
(2) Phillies have made it obvious they’ll match whatever market offers.
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
So with all the moves, plus the Phillies getting an extra year on Seth Johnson, the bullpen is pretty set.
High Leverage: Duran, Keller, Alvarado, Banks
Mid Leverage: Kerkering, Bowlan
Low Leverage: McCambley, Backhus
You aren't committed to the low leverage guys, but they have a spot.
High Leverage: Duran, Keller, Alvarado, Banks
Mid Leverage: Kerkering, Bowlan
Low Leverage: McCambley, Backhus
You aren't committed to the low leverage guys, but they have a spot.
December 19, 2025 at 5:59 PM
So with all the moves, plus the Phillies getting an extra year on Seth Johnson, the bullpen is pretty set.
High Leverage: Duran, Keller, Alvarado, Banks
Mid Leverage: Kerkering, Bowlan
Low Leverage: McCambley, Backhus
You aren't committed to the low leverage guys, but they have a spot.
High Leverage: Duran, Keller, Alvarado, Banks
Mid Leverage: Kerkering, Bowlan
Low Leverage: McCambley, Backhus
You aren't committed to the low leverage guys, but they have a spot.
I guess 7.5 for an aging lefty specialist who was on the downslope was reason enough to trade him.
The thing about Matt Strahm is he is 34, and lost a mph off his fastball last year, his K% dropped from 33.3% to 27.3%, his walk rate was up, and his fly ball rate (and consequently his home run rate) was up. There were strong indicators that he was trending in the wrong direction.
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I guess 7.5 for an aging lefty specialist who was on the downslope was reason enough to trade him.
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
If you accept that there isn’t a massive offensive overhaul coming, giving Brad Keller slight overpay to go all in on Starting/Bullpen pitching is pound for pound probably the most effective use of resources available to the Phillies
December 17, 2025 at 5:17 PM
If you accept that there isn’t a massive offensive overhaul coming, giving Brad Keller slight overpay to go all in on Starting/Bullpen pitching is pound for pound probably the most effective use of resources available to the Phillies
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
Phillies plan to move forward with this current outfield group, Dave Dombrowski said:
Brandon Marsh/A RHB in LF
Justin Crawford in CF
Adolis García in RF
Brandon Marsh/A RHB in LF
Justin Crawford in CF
Adolis García in RF
December 16, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Phillies plan to move forward with this current outfield group, Dave Dombrowski said:
Brandon Marsh/A RHB in LF
Justin Crawford in CF
Adolis García in RF
Brandon Marsh/A RHB in LF
Justin Crawford in CF
Adolis García in RF
Rational take on Adolis Garcia signing. Wouldn’t expect anything less from @mattwinkelman.bsky.social
I think there is some thinking of "we can fix him", but also it is a real acknowledgement that the OF market is bad, and the RH outfield market is just completely awful. He would not be my choice, but I am also not convinced my choice actually exists on the market.
I just see this as another in the Whitt Merrifield/ Max Kepler series of moves based on some magical thinking that “we can turn him around.”
December 16, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Rational take on Adolis Garcia signing. Wouldn’t expect anything less from @mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
Curet is a big arm who is an obvious bullpen conversion. McCollum has some interesting characteristics, but has been inconsistent in AA/AAA and profiled as a middle reliever.
Phillies are acquiring righty Yoniel Curet from the Rays for minor-league reliever Tommy McCollum, sources said. Curet, 23, had been DFAd by Tampa Bay. Plus fastball, but control issues. Could be reliever. Goes on 40-man roster. Has a minor-league option.
December 10, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Curet is a big arm who is an obvious bullpen conversion. McCollum has some interesting characteristics, but has been inconsistent in AA/AAA and profiled as a middle reliever.
Couple interesting tidbits from @mattgelb.bsky.social and @ken-rosenthal.bsky.social reporting:
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
December 8, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Couple interesting tidbits from @mattgelb.bsky.social and @ken-rosenthal.bsky.social reporting:
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (12/2 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
December 3, 2025 at 2:23 AM
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (12/2 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
Didn’t realize how great of a season Sanchez had until I read this post. Still amazed at how great he’s become.
Sanchez threw 14.1 more innings in the same number of starts, which had him .1 behind in fWAR, .3 ahead in bWAR, and 1.2 ahead by WARP. Sanchez also pitched in high leverage down the stretch. By advanced metrics, Sanchez was the deserving winner, but that wasn’t the narrative
November 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Didn’t realize how great of a season Sanchez had until I read this post. Still amazed at how great he’s become.
Bader coming back seems to be a real possibility and I’d say the most likely.
Dave Dombrowski on Harrison Bader: "They know we have interest. They know that we'd like to bring him back. They also had expressed that they want to see what's out there because this was the best year he's had, I think, in quite a while."
More on OF: www.nytimes.com/athletic/679...
More on OF: www.nytimes.com/athletic/679...
Phillies’ outfield revamp: Justin Crawford, no Nick Castellanos, and a lot of questions
The Phillies are actively shopping Nick Castellanos at this week's GM meetings, multiple major-league sources told The Athletic.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Bader coming back seems to be a real possibility and I’d say the most likely.
Ranger’s story is a great one. Very happy to see this guy get paid.
With Ranger Suarez now a FA, the current longest tenured under contract player on the Phillies is either Aaron Nola (June 10, 2014) or Rafael Marchan (July 3, 2015) depending on how you want to handle Nola actually becoming a free agent. After those two it jumps all the way to Johan Rojas (1/18/18)
November 9, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Ranger’s story is a great one. Very happy to see this guy get paid.
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (11/7 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
November 7, 2025 at 2:43 PM
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (11/7 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
Listened to and read some of the offseason previews for the Phillies. It seems that this is the base case for the offseason:
November 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Listened to and read some of the offseason previews for the Phillies. It seems that this is the base case for the offseason:
Listened to Dombrowski’s presser. Overall, agree with what he said and the direction they appear to be going.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
October 17, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Listened to Dombrowski’s presser. Overall, agree with what he said and the direction they appear to be going.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
Well, here we are at game 162. The Phillies have exceeded the model’s expectations by many games. It projected about ~86 at the start the season.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
September 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Well, here we are at game 162. The Phillies have exceeded the model’s expectations by many games. It projected about ~86 at the start the season.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
Clinch Bye % per Fangraphs (9/15 update):
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
September 15, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Clinch Bye % per Fangraphs (9/15 update):
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
September 15, 2025 update (post Mets/Brewers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
September 15, 2025 at 12:54 AM
September 15, 2025 update (post Mets/Brewers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
Pretty remarkable the Phillies can clinch the NL East today.
September 14, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Pretty remarkable the Phillies can clinch the NL East today.
September 10, 2025 update (post Brewers/Marlins series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
September 10, 2025 at 12:56 PM
September 10, 2025 update (post Brewers/Marlins series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
At this rate, Nola doesn’t make the playoffs roster.
September 3, 2025 at 11:58 PM
At this rate, Nola doesn’t make the playoffs roster.
September 1, 2025 update (post Mets/Braves series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
September 2, 2025 at 1:14 AM
September 1, 2025 update (post Mets/Braves series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
From a fan perspective, the Phillies being swept by the Mets was a gut punch.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
August 28, 2025 at 12:49 PM
From a fan perspective, the Phillies being swept by the Mets was a gut punch.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
August 25, 2025 update (post Mariners/Nats series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
August 25, 2025 at 5:31 PM
August 25, 2025 update (post Mariners/Nats series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
Everyone has said what they need to say about Aaron Nola, a man who has spent 11 years under the watchful scrutiny of this city. It can be paralyzing.
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
Phillies need more of vintage Aaron Nola: ‘I just need to step up’
Philadelphia needs a righty for its hypothetical postseason rotation, which as of now would feature three lefties.
www.nytimes.com
August 24, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Everyone has said what they need to say about Aaron Nola, a man who has spent 11 years under the watchful scrutiny of this city. It can be paralyzing.
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...