Designing Better Artefacts
@pmholling.bsky.social
Senior Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, expert on uncertain decision making- Retweets are things I find interesting, but do not, always reflect my opinions.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
Open up this picture fully.
Then look at the surface of Mars.
Then look up to the top right.
Spot Mars' moon Phobos high in the sky.
Then notice the bright spot beside Phobos.
That's Earth.
Then look at the surface of Mars.
Then look up to the top right.
Spot Mars' moon Phobos high in the sky.
Then notice the bright spot beside Phobos.
That's Earth.
December 30, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Open up this picture fully.
Then look at the surface of Mars.
Then look up to the top right.
Spot Mars' moon Phobos high in the sky.
Then notice the bright spot beside Phobos.
That's Earth.
Then look at the surface of Mars.
Then look up to the top right.
Spot Mars' moon Phobos high in the sky.
Then notice the bright spot beside Phobos.
That's Earth.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
I was just internal examiner for a passing PhD viva; it's one of the bits of my job I absolutely love. Someone's put a few years into really achieving at the high end of what humans do, and the viva works to get them to demonstrate mastery of that work over a few hours.
November 18, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I was just internal examiner for a passing PhD viva; it's one of the bits of my job I absolutely love. Someone's put a few years into really achieving at the high end of what humans do, and the viva works to get them to demonstrate mastery of that work over a few hours.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
November 10, 2025 at 1:38 PM
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
recently discovered that wikipedia volunteers have a hilariously high bar for what constitutes "unusual death"
October 27, 2025 at 12:38 PM
recently discovered that wikipedia volunteers have a hilariously high bar for what constitutes "unusual death"
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
This is a good example of the "very clear" rule of political interviews.
When a politician says "I've been very clear" it always means they're wildly obfuscating. Never fails.
When a politician says "I've been very clear" it always means they're wildly obfuscating. Never fails.
Lewis Goodall pressing Chris Philp on the difference between what Sarah Pochin said and what Robert Jenrick said about 'white faces'.
October 26, 2025 at 4:50 PM
This is a good example of the "very clear" rule of political interviews.
When a politician says "I've been very clear" it always means they're wildly obfuscating. Never fails.
When a politician says "I've been very clear" it always means they're wildly obfuscating. Never fails.
The thread this is part of is worth a read, and generally everything said in it is correct. However, if the UK wants an explicitly codified constitution, and one that truly binds actions, then our current concept of parliamentary sovereignty likely has to change.
How would a new constitution be entrenched?
There is no mechanism by which one parliament can bind its successors.
A constitution with the weight of history behind it, or overwhelming public support, would exert a potent moral constraint.
But this constitution would have neither of those benefits
There is no mechanism by which one parliament can bind its successors.
A constitution with the weight of history behind it, or overwhelming public support, would exert a potent moral constraint.
But this constitution would have neither of those benefits
October 26, 2025 at 5:44 PM
The thread this is part of is worth a read, and generally everything said in it is correct. However, if the UK wants an explicitly codified constitution, and one that truly binds actions, then our current concept of parliamentary sovereignty likely has to change.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
There is a serious, principled case for a codified constitution, for some of the reasons George sets out.
But botching together a constitution to stop Farage - a constitution that could not command widespread support and that was widely seen as rigged - would deepen our problems, not resolve them.🧵
But botching together a constitution to stop Farage - a constitution that could not command widespread support and that was widely seen as rigged - would deepen our problems, not resolve them.🧵
We're facing a political emergency: a high likelihood of an shamelessly authoritarian government in 2029. So we urgently need this basic safeguard: a codified constitution.
This week's column explains what we're missing and why it's so important.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
This week's column explains what we're missing and why it's so important.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
We must act now: without a written constitution, Reform UK will have carte blanche to toxify our nation | Goerge Monbiot
It means breaking with hundreds of years of tradition, but it can’t wait. As hard-right figures spread division and laud autocrats, a fail-safe is vital, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 10:42 PM
There is a serious, principled case for a codified constitution, for some of the reasons George sets out.
But botching together a constitution to stop Farage - a constitution that could not command widespread support and that was widely seen as rigged - would deepen our problems, not resolve them.🧵
But botching together a constitution to stop Farage - a constitution that could not command widespread support and that was widely seen as rigged - would deepen our problems, not resolve them.🧵
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
Quite possibly the nerdiest Lunch with the FT we've ever run, featuring the inelastic markets hypothesis, 'econophysics', the Black-Scholes model's weaknesses and several drive-by shootings of economists. www.ft.com/content/6f54...
Investor Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: ‘The whole bull run is because of an influx of money’
The physicist and hedge fund manager on why the efficient markets theory is ‘all wrong’, economists with ‘mathematics envy’ — and what Camus can teach us about compromise
www.ft.com
September 19, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Quite possibly the nerdiest Lunch with the FT we've ever run, featuring the inelastic markets hypothesis, 'econophysics', the Black-Scholes model's weaknesses and several drive-by shootings of economists. www.ft.com/content/6f54...
I
Clegg coming around is hilarious but we have to welcome it even if it strains credulity
August 25, 2025 at 1:08 PM
I
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
Everyone is different but here are some things I think are good general advice. >
August 15, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Everyone is different but here are some things I think are good general advice. >
A great thread on why LLMs are really interesting, but much less than many claim they are.
So, so much of the problem with "AI" discourse comes from viewing the new consumer products as anything like intelligences. Large Language Models is a completely fair and descriptive term - most important is the last term. These are *models* of natural language, with parameters that are >
August 9, 2025 at 12:21 PM
A great thread on why LLMs are really interesting, but much less than many claim they are.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
This box contains a tiny grain that was never destined to be on Earth.
Until we intervened.
Until we intervened.
August 9, 2025 at 10:26 AM
This box contains a tiny grain that was never destined to be on Earth.
Until we intervened.
Until we intervened.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
After a lengthy review the UK government recently decided not to pursue locational pricing reforms to the electricity wholesale markets. I figured I’d offer a retelling of this saga and a few thoughts of my own. Energy nerds were out in force for this debate too so other takes are welcome. (1/n)
UK abandons zonal pricing plan for electricity
Ministers will instead explore less radical reforms such as how generators pay to access transmission network
www.ft.com
July 23, 2025 at 8:03 AM
After a lengthy review the UK government recently decided not to pursue locational pricing reforms to the electricity wholesale markets. I figured I’d offer a retelling of this saga and a few thoughts of my own. Energy nerds were out in force for this debate too so other takes are welcome. (1/n)
On this if the flight was at an airspeed of 175 knots, and the pilots inadvertently retracted the flaps from a higher setting, say Flaps 20, to Flaps 5 you would definitely get a transient downward acceleration, but you would be unlikely to stall the aircraft just doing that.
likely FLAPS 1 or 5 as you can see the slats, but not much trailing edge deflection. The flight would have had to have a tailwind of 20+ knots to be approaching stall. The wind at the time, on the ground was nearly an 8 knot tailwind. That would be a lot of wind shear, 28 knots in less than 100 m.
June 13, 2025 at 12:16 PM
On this if the flight was at an airspeed of 175 knots, and the pilots inadvertently retracted the flaps from a higher setting, say Flaps 20, to Flaps 5 you would definitely get a transient downward acceleration, but you would be unlikely to stall the aircraft just doing that.
I have refrained from posting much about #AI171 as we really don't know much about what the actual sequence of events was. I also haven't been asked directly.
June 13, 2025 at 12:12 PM
I have refrained from posting much about #AI171 as we really don't know much about what the actual sequence of events was. I also haven't been asked directly.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
The Right Stuff
Robert “Ed” Smylie, the NASA official who saved the Apollo 13 crew in 1970, has died at 95. He cobbled together an apparatus made of cardboard, plastic bags and duct tape after an explosion crippled the spacecraft as it sped toward the moon.
Ed Smylie, Who Saved the Apollo 13 Crew With Duct Tape, Dies at 95
www.nytimes.com
May 16, 2025 at 9:34 PM
The Right Stuff
12 irrelevant alternatives, and 6 votes away from ‘dictatorship’ in the electorate. While the former is fairly common in FPTP races, it isn’t that often you get this close to actually having the dictatorship principle demonstrated.
Runcorn and Helsby by-election result
Reform win by 6 votes over Labour
Reform 12,645
Labour 12,639
Cons 2341
Green: 2314
LibDem: 942
Liberal 454
Ind 363
Ind 269
Workers 164
Rejoin 129
Loony: 128
Eng Dems/Deport: 95
SDP 68
Europe 54
Eng Const 50
Reform win by 6 votes over Labour
Reform 12,645
Labour 12,639
Cons 2341
Green: 2314
LibDem: 942
Liberal 454
Ind 363
Ind 269
Workers 164
Rejoin 129
Loony: 128
Eng Dems/Deport: 95
SDP 68
Europe 54
Eng Const 50
May 2, 2025 at 6:04 AM
12 irrelevant alternatives, and 6 votes away from ‘dictatorship’ in the electorate. While the former is fairly common in FPTP races, it isn’t that often you get this close to actually having the dictatorship principle demonstrated.
The beauty of FPTP electoral systems with somewhat fragmented parties. No better illustration of Arrow’s principle to be found. Plus not many better ways to demonstrate that most people don’t understand Arrow.
May 2, 2025 at 5:55 AM
The beauty of FPTP electoral systems with somewhat fragmented parties. No better illustration of Arrow’s principle to be found. Plus not many better ways to demonstrate that most people don’t understand Arrow.
This bit is important. Much of the storage drawdown this winter was likely to minimise further losses on gas purchased way back in summer and autumn 2022. When the FR nuclear uncertainty, added to the Russian Ukraine issues to create massively high prices.
Uniper's results have a little nugget in there.
It's the basis of all the Bloomberg et al scare stories that storage was emptying rather quickly in Europe.
An admission that this was the last moment to get gas out of storage and to *contain* losses.
Crisis, what crisis?
It's the basis of all the Bloomberg et al scare stories that storage was emptying rather quickly in Europe.
An admission that this was the last moment to get gas out of storage and to *contain* losses.
Crisis, what crisis?
April 24, 2025 at 7:08 PM
This bit is important. Much of the storage drawdown this winter was likely to minimise further losses on gas purchased way back in summer and autumn 2022. When the FR nuclear uncertainty, added to the Russian Ukraine issues to create massively high prices.
The result of zero trade balance is zero direct investment. The loss of which is the loss of significant power by the US. Someone else is likely to fill that vacuum, leaving Americans much worse off.
And this, my friends, is the logic behind the new tariff policy of the United States of America.
Zero trade balance with *each* trading partner.
Zero trade balance with *each* trading partner.
April 3, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The result of zero trade balance is zero direct investment. The loss of which is the loss of significant power by the US. Someone else is likely to fill that vacuum, leaving Americans much worse off.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
It’s 9am TFT time here, and citizens are already gathering to protest Tariffs by the United States. Our plain clothes Officer Penguins are attempting to maintain calm, but unfortunately we keep losing them in the crowd.
April 3, 2025 at 4:13 AM
It’s 9am TFT time here, and citizens are already gathering to protest Tariffs by the United States. Our plain clothes Officer Penguins are attempting to maintain calm, but unfortunately we keep losing them in the crowd.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
The lowest UK system demand* over the last while was recorded at 1pm on a Sunday (19GW).
Winter. Done.
*Doesn't necessarily mean *actual* demand was that low, but embedded renewables (e.g. behind the meter/some distribution connected) broadly makes demand disappear when viewed at the system level.
Winter. Done.
*Doesn't necessarily mean *actual* demand was that low, but embedded renewables (e.g. behind the meter/some distribution connected) broadly makes demand disappear when viewed at the system level.
April 1, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The lowest UK system demand* over the last while was recorded at 1pm on a Sunday (19GW).
Winter. Done.
*Doesn't necessarily mean *actual* demand was that low, but embedded renewables (e.g. behind the meter/some distribution connected) broadly makes demand disappear when viewed at the system level.
Winter. Done.
*Doesn't necessarily mean *actual* demand was that low, but embedded renewables (e.g. behind the meter/some distribution connected) broadly makes demand disappear when viewed at the system level.
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
Show me a wilder chart. I’ll wait. on.ft.com/420Xbnx
March 25, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Show me a wilder chart. I’ll wait. on.ft.com/420Xbnx
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
An academic colleague just sent an email in pseudocode with IF and ELSE statements and honestly it was about a billion times easier to take appropriate action than every email I get from non-academic colleagues (on whom no shade is cast, I'm the problem here).
A colleague has just messaged me saying,
“I like how you understand Bayesian statistics but as soon as you have to complete more than one form you fall apart”
I feel very seen
“I like how you understand Bayesian statistics but as soon as you have to complete more than one form you fall apart”
I feel very seen
March 11, 2025 at 8:47 PM
An academic colleague just sent an email in pseudocode with IF and ELSE statements and honestly it was about a billion times easier to take appropriate action than every email I get from non-academic colleagues (on whom no shade is cast, I'm the problem here).
Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts
This will never cease to amuse and infuriate me. Minumum parking requirements being calculated on basis of sample sizes of less than 10, samples so small you can't even calculate basic statistics. "Caution" indeed. Donald Shoup was such a necessary intellectual wrecking ball.
February 8, 2025 at 10:33 PM
This will never cease to amuse and infuriate me. Minumum parking requirements being calculated on basis of sample sizes of less than 10, samples so small you can't even calculate basic statistics. "Caution" indeed. Donald Shoup was such a necessary intellectual wrecking ball.