Robert Manning
@ramfutures.bsky.social
Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center, Global Foresight & China programs. Former State, EAP &policy planning, former NIC.
Thanks, Captain Obvious. Now what?
“Trump's Venezuela Attack: It’s All About the Oil, Stupid!”
Here are five times Donald Trump himself admitted that illegally attacking Venezuela and toppling Nicolás Maduro was aimed at seizing the country’s massive oil reserves.
My latest for Zeteo:
Here are five times Donald Trump himself admitted that illegally attacking Venezuela and toppling Nicolás Maduro was aimed at seizing the country’s massive oil reserves.
My latest for Zeteo:
Trump's Venezuela Attack: It’s All About the Oil, Stupid!
Here are five times Donald Trump himself admitted that illegally attacking Venezuela and toppling Nicolás Maduro was aimed at seizing the country’s massive oil reserves.
zeteo.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Thanks, Captain Obvious. Now what?
What to worry about in 2026?
Our annual Top Ten Global Risks for 2026 is out!
Venezuela just the start of a wild ride ahead.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/02/t...
Our annual Top Ten Global Risks for 2026 is out!
Venezuela just the start of a wild ride ahead.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/02/t...
Welcome to the Age of Chaos
The top global risks of 2026 show an ever more unstable world.
foreignpolicy.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:33 PM
What to worry about in 2026?
Our annual Top Ten Global Risks for 2026 is out!
Venezuela just the start of a wild ride ahead.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/02/t...
Our annual Top Ten Global Risks for 2026 is out!
Venezuela just the start of a wild ride ahead.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/02/t...
Indeed
Great pice from @msobel.bsky.social & Brad on 🇨🇳's continued commitment to macroeconomic policies that are the exact opposite of what they must do if they, or anyone else, really wants the RMB to challenge the dollar's dominance in global finance:
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
November 19, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Indeed
Who needs intelligence agencies when you have the very stable genius?
BREAKING: Hegseth fires head of Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Hegseth fires head of Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has fired Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the latest national security senior officer to be purged.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 22, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Who needs intelligence agencies when you have the very stable genius?
I’d settle for plain, English, Harry Truman-like.
People looking for authenticity.
People looking for authenticity.
August 22, 2025 at 7:34 PM
I’d settle for plain, English, Harry Truman-like.
People looking for authenticity.
People looking for authenticity.
The promise & perils of the Techno-utopians.
Are the modern version of the 17th century British East India Company, creating a tech empire ahead of the state?
nationalinterest.org/blog/techlan...
Are the modern version of the 17th century British East India Company, creating a tech empire ahead of the state?
nationalinterest.org/blog/techlan...
AI: The Road to Utopia or Dystopia?
The development of artificial intelligence cannot be stopped. Yet, that doesn't mean it cannot be realigned with human-centered priorities.
nationalinterest.org
August 14, 2025 at 7:46 PM
The promise & perils of the Techno-utopians.
Are the modern version of the 17th century British East India Company, creating a tech empire ahead of the state?
nationalinterest.org/blog/techlan...
Are the modern version of the 17th century British East India Company, creating a tech empire ahead of the state?
nationalinterest.org/blog/techlan...
Pretty much. But gradually moving from Orwell — ban books, etc to Huxley— no need to ban, as nobody wants to read books, just live in the Netaverse.
July 21, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Pretty much. But gradually moving from Orwell — ban books, etc to Huxley— no need to ban, as nobody wants to read books, just live in the Netaverse.
New Red Cell
Why repairing the damage of Trump destruction of US state capacity, US global standing and retreat from multilateralism will be extremely difficult.
Can't put Humpty Dumpty back together.
nationalinterest.org/feature/the-...
Why repairing the damage of Trump destruction of US state capacity, US global standing and retreat from multilateralism will be extremely difficult.
Can't put Humpty Dumpty back together.
nationalinterest.org/feature/the-...
The End of American Internationalism?
Donald Trump’s successor, whomever it may be, will find it difficult to restore US global leadership in 2029.
nationalinterest.org
June 5, 2025 at 6:22 PM
New Red Cell
Why repairing the damage of Trump destruction of US state capacity, US global standing and retreat from multilateralism will be extremely difficult.
Can't put Humpty Dumpty back together.
nationalinterest.org/feature/the-...
Why repairing the damage of Trump destruction of US state capacity, US global standing and retreat from multilateralism will be extremely difficult.
Can't put Humpty Dumpty back together.
nationalinterest.org/feature/the-...
NEW RED CELL
Trump: Costs & Consequences
How the world may be reordered.
nationalinterest.org/feature/pres...
Trump: Costs & Consequences
How the world may be reordered.
nationalinterest.org/feature/pres...
Present at the Destruction: A 2030 Damage Assessment
What hath Trump wrought? The revolution unleashed on January 20 has unsettled eighty years of economic, political, and security order in a few months.
nationalinterest.org
May 19, 2025 at 1:05 PM
NEW RED CELL
Trump: Costs & Consequences
How the world may be reordered.
nationalinterest.org/feature/pres...
Trump: Costs & Consequences
How the world may be reordered.
nationalinterest.org/feature/pres...
Exactly.
April 28, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Exactly.
Trump is undoing 45 years of carefully structured understandings and cooperation that resulted in stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific.
An incoherent policy is speeding Beijing’s rise. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/21/t...
An incoherent policy is speeding Beijing’s rise. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/21/t...
Trump Is Losing Asia
An incoherent policy is speeding Beijing’s rise.
foreignpolicy.com
April 21, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Trump is undoing 45 years of carefully structured understandings and cooperation that resulted in stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific.
An incoherent policy is speeding Beijing’s rise. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/21/t...
An incoherent policy is speeding Beijing’s rise. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/21/t...
👇
April 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
👇
Prescient.
They were careless people, Tom and Daisy- they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.
-FS Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby, published 4/10/1925.
-FS Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby, published 4/10/1925.
April 10, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Prescient.
👇sadly, a reality check.
“A trillion comments have been wasted accusing the wrong people of Trump derangement syndrome. The real TDS afflicts those who keep seeing a rational actor, or an economic chess game, where none exists.” Me on Trump’s wrecking ball. www.ft.com/content/9f51...
Trump has no idea what he has unleashed
There is no school of foreign policy realism or trade mercantilism that could explain the US president’s actions
www.ft.com
April 8, 2025 at 10:11 PM
👇sadly, a reality check.
Ending government waste, fraud and abuse, eh?
"His office leadership instructed appointees to act as servers for a multicourse meal. They dispatched a US Park Police helicopter for his personal transportation. On at least one occasion, a staffer was told to remake the cookies because the batch was subpar..."
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
The Cabinet Secretary Who Wants His Cookies Freshly Baked
The unusual requests made of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s staff are raising concerns all the way to the White House.
www.theatlantic.com
April 7, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Ending government waste, fraud and abuse, eh?
Why there will be few negotiated resolutions. Trump goals are 1) tariffs as extortion: free money to US Treasury, reasons don't matter-- any one will do.
and 2) decouple from China. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia got "China+1" FDI, to assemble China stuff exported to US. Electronics, shoes, clothes.
and 2) decouple from China. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia got "China+1" FDI, to assemble China stuff exported to US. Electronics, shoes, clothes.
White House: we want reciprocal tariffs
Vietnam: fine, let’s do zero percent
White House: fuck you
Absolute clown car administration
Vietnam: fine, let’s do zero percent
White House: fuck you
Absolute clown car administration
April 7, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Why there will be few negotiated resolutions. Trump goals are 1) tariffs as extortion: free money to US Treasury, reasons don't matter-- any one will do.
and 2) decouple from China. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia got "China+1" FDI, to assemble China stuff exported to US. Electronics, shoes, clothes.
and 2) decouple from China. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia got "China+1" FDI, to assemble China stuff exported to US. Electronics, shoes, clothes.
Impactful, big story buried under tariff headlines: ROK Poresident impeached. June elections, according to polls, likely to result in a DP, leftist government (already controls Parliament). I'm guessing tensions with Trump ahead.
April 4, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Impactful, big story buried under tariff headlines: ROK Poresident impeached. June elections, according to polls, likely to result in a DP, leftist government (already controls Parliament). I'm guessing tensions with Trump ahead.
Exactly
There are 33m companies in the USA. Only 21k employe 500 or more. And they only make up 23% of workers.
Trump and Elon are ignoring the more than 32m entrepreneurs that can't afford to build a new factory or pay tariffs or absorb cancelled contracts.
Trump and Elon are ignoring the more than 32m entrepreneurs that can't afford to build a new factory or pay tariffs or absorb cancelled contracts.
April 4, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Exactly
How is this acceptable?
My piece with Bruce Schneier on Tornado Cash back in the day. henryfarrell.net/tornado-cash... NB that the Fifth Circuit ruling had made this practically irrelevant w/o legislation, but the move is a sign that the crypto people are winning out over the natsec people in the internal fights.
March 22, 2025 at 2:42 PM
How is this acceptable?
This is exactly what it looks like. what rationale besides race?
March 20, 2025 at 5:58 PM
This is exactly what it looks like. what rationale besides race?
Cui Bono? Seems a form of Oligarchs waging class warfare by nihilism.
March 20, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Cui Bono? Seems a form of Oligarchs waging class warfare by nihilism.
This is not just a gift to Putin, but also morally repugnant and indefensible.
This is the story that Karoline Leavitt said probably wasn’t accurate when it was first reported by Reuters because she said they aren’t reliable.
March 20, 2025 at 5:55 PM
This is not just a gift to Putin, but also morally repugnant and indefensible.
Bingo
March 14, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Bingo
As long as Trump is in the realm of capricious madness, why not Canada invite California, Oregon and, Washington to secede from the US and become new Canadian provinnces.
Great overview on this from Frédéric 🇨🇦/🇪🇺. I’ve been asked about this by several students/faculty this week. Totally agree with the conclusion:
March 14, 2025 at 8:06 PM
As long as Trump is in the realm of capricious madness, why not Canada invite California, Oregon and, Washington to secede from the US and become new Canadian provinnces.