Tariffs raise manufacturing employment, but with a large drop in the short run, and more reallocation across manufacturing sectors in the long run than overall growth, from Joseph B. Steinberg https://www.nber.org/papers/w34236

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Will a return to risk-taking rouse animal spirits? https://on.ft.com/3IyLxKx

Is AI liberating human programmers—or programming them right out of their jobs?

At @wired.com we kept hearing conflicting accounts, so we surveyed 730 coders and developers at every career stage about how (and how often) they use AI chatbots on the job:

www.wired.com/story/how-so...

🚨 New paper alert, with @johnjhorton.bsky.social! Using an experiment run on a large online labor market, we provide evidence that providing employers access to an AI-written first draft of a job post harms the efficiency of the market.

emmawiles.github.io/storage/jobo...

Graph of intense pain and suffering

China's exports to the US fell sharply under the weight of US tariffs in April 2025, but China's exports to everywhere else exploded the same month. Tariffs are a huge deflationary shock for China. Lots and lots of goods are fighting to get to the US and are now heading there via third countries...

The federal government is on track to collect a record $23 billion in tariff revenue in May. That would be roughly 3x last year's figure for May.
For some context, the tax bill passed by Congress last week would reduce federal revenue by ~$468 billion in 2026 (per CBO).

Global temperature rise to reach near 2C in next five years, WMO says

https://www.ft.com/content/1bf97b4f-786a-4277-8901-df84a6971488

Sweeping tariffs are expected to raise the cost of cars, electronics, metals, lumber, pharmaceuticals and other products from overseas. But President Trump and his advisers are betting that it can sell an inflation-weary public on a provocative idea: Cheap stuff is not the American dream.

Understanding causality vs. correlation is genuinely hard especially on complex topics like inflation. Our research finds that 60% of Americans think high interest rates cause high inflation & support rate cuts to fight it. But high rates usually respond to inflation,not cause it

Revised metro area jobs data came out today, giving the best look yet at post-2020 growth!

Fastest: Austin (19.4%), Raleigh (15.1%), Orlando (12.6%), Dallas (12.1%), Nashville (11.9%)

Slowest: SF (-3%), Cleveland (-1.9%), Milwaukee (-1.4%), Boston (-1.1%), Pittsburgh (-0.8%)

Whatever the cause of the US trade deficit, tariffs in the range Trump has floated will not affect it decisively. Tariffs could affect saving & investment, but it's unlikely they would greatly change the saving-investment balance or push it in one direction or the other, Maurice Obstfeld writes.