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Better Markets @bettermarkets.bsky.social · 19d

Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 22d

seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 22d

the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 27d

Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.

Charts of NSA jobless claims for Texas since 2022 and national ex Texas jobless claims (also NSA)

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 29d

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence.

Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more...

www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

Treasury Default, A Weak Dollar Policy, and Mass Fed Firings? What The Miran Hearing Missed

The confirmation hearing for Miran aired some key issues, but hardly all of them, and not the most important ones. It would be unwise to make an exception for seemingly “short-term” appointments; shor...

www.employamerica.org

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Tim Bartik @timbartik.bsky.social · Sep 2

My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates.

It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

Point 1: The role of "broad-based and inclusive." RR argue that the Fed pursued an “overly optimistic interpretation of maximum employment" in order to "increase job opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups" because of this.

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

In a paper last year, Romer and Romer (2024) critique these additions to the framework, arguing that this language contributed to delaying the Fed's rate hikes in response to inflation in 2021-2022. I disagree with three key points in their paper.

eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...

eml.berkeley.edu

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

The Fed is currently undergoing a review of its framework, which will codify monetary policy strategy over the next few years.

In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social

In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment

www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment

The 2020 Fed Framework changes around full employment were appropriate and an important part of achieving the full employment recovery seen after the pandemic. Blaming it for historically unique deman...

www.employamerica.org

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · Aug 14

For another take on what the Fed should do with its framework review, check out @skandaamarnath.bsky.social's piece on specific language changes the Fed can make to better deal with supply shocks.

www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 5: Revising The Consensus Statement For Supply-Aware Monetary Policy

This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part ...

www.employamerica.org

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · Aug 16

The trade component of this is the most underrated and most compelling.

Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition.

Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · Aug 14

He repealed much of the IRA. They tried to explicitly tax wind and solar build out. They’re taxing imported products that are vital for electricity connection. Just blame Trump.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · Aug 4

Also for all the talk of consumer spending weakness, auto sales volumes accelerated late last year and if you look through swings driven by front-running of tariffs and the unwind, they're very much holding those gains.

Chart showing auto sales monthly for the past 10 years per Ward's Automotive

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George Pearkes @peark.es · Aug 4

"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!

Chart showing the net number of guidance raises (guidance raise - guidance lowered) for US stocks since 2001

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Tim Latimer @timlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 30

A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point.

There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.

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Seaver Wang @wang-seaver.bsky.social · Jul 22

Partly it's mineral-specific strategy. But mostly the US needs not piles of minerals but knowhow + operating projects, for which price volatility + market illiquidity dissuade investment.

This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.

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Seaver Wang @wang-seaver.bsky.social · Jul 22

Should a US national critical minerals reserve program act more like the National Defense Stockpile or more like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Major new report by my team deep dives into this question, looking at 15 minerals relevant to energy.

My thoughts🧵:

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...

Taking Inventory of Critical Mineral Stockpiling

The Breakthrough Institute is an environmental research center based in Berkeley, California. Our research focuses on identifying and promoting…

thebreakthrough.org

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · Jul 18

The affirmative xG case is never going to sway everyone, especially when there's some ugly eye test involved. But if you're saying "he plays the same position as Saka" you learned nothing from last season, and if you're saying "Chelsea transfers never work" you shouldn't be allowed to drive a car

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · Jul 18

I'm convinced Noni Madueke is going to be a great Arsenal player, mostly because the arguments against him have been (and I say this advisedly) based on some of the stupidest takes I've seen in any sport in the past decade.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · Jul 18

US oil rig counts (proxy for drilling activity) down 13% YTD.

Chart of weekly Baker-Hughes US rig counts

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Tim Latimer @timlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 18

Seems like something happened in April that really shifted the prospects of the US oil and gas industry. 🤔

George Pearkes @peark.es · Jul 18

US oil rig counts (proxy for drilling activity) down 13% YTD.

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BOO-nlighting @goonlighting.bsky.social · Jul 10

Oh he's such a skillful politician, is he? Someone ask Zohran about Madueke and let's see how he handles that hot potato.

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Employ America @employamerica.bsky.social · Jul 11

Employ America’s deep understanding of the macroeconomic picture and innovative legal thinking positions us uniquely well to meet this moment. We’re eager to dive into a new era as an organization, and craft the policies needed to unleash the full potential of the US economy! /end

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