A political/media guide to the "truth" about net-zero… 1) Add up costs to install & run a net-zero energy system 2) Pretend fossil-fuelled alternatives wld be free 3) Do say "eco zealots are bankrupting us" 4) Don't say "free cars if we scrap net-zero" cos it sounds ridiculous 5) That's it! I realise this probably sounds like I'm making things up or being flippant. The Times covered this "£4.5tn cost of net-zero" story too, surely there's more to it…? But honestly, please read on and I'll walk you through it. Let's start by looking at the source of the Mail's "£4.5 trillion". It took me a while to work it out, but it's actually quite simple. Table EA.06 (pic) from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) shows the cost of installing & running a net-zero UK energy system 2025-2050. If we take CAPEX only (My A + B in the table) we get = £4.5tn (I'll explain "CAPEX" in a sec) For bonus points, if you want to make this sound even scarier, why not try… CAPEX + OPEX (My A+B+C+D) = £7.6tn Apparently this was too tempting and will be making an appearance later today… To be clear, this is the total cost to install and run the UK energy system: CAPEX = buying energy-related equipment (an electric car, a windfarm, a heat pump for your home) OPEX = paying to keep it running (electricity, staff, servicing etc) (see NESO table EA.A.03) You could call this the "cost of net-zero" – as long as you think the fossil alternatives are free: (CAPEX) Free petrol cars! (CAPEX) Free gas-fired power stations! (OPEX) Free petrol! (OPEX) Free electricity from coal and gas! Wouldn't that be nice. But petrol cars do cost money – and there's been massive cost inflation for gas turbines. NESO looked at the cost of "carrying on with fossil fuels" too, in a scenario called "Falling Behind" – and it was only £0.36tn cheaper in cash terms than “Holistic Transition”. So now we have gone from "staggering £4.5 / £7.6 TRILLION cost of net-zero"…to something that is 10-20x cheaper. But there's more! As I wrote when these NESO figures came out last year, NESO said net-zero "Holistic Transition" was the "cheapest option", once you take account of the economic damages from CO2 adding to climate change. It said a fossil energy system is only “cheaper” if we “ignore” carbon costs: https://lnkd.in/ees3RDYM If you want to check out the NESO data tables for yourself… It’s this link: https://lnkd.in/eZCfUAFD On this page: https://lnkd.in/euzc5XkJ /ENDS | 38 comments on LinkedIn

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