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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Sep 4

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Aug 18

NEW -

Austerity and Social Spending: Estimating the Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Adjustment - cup.org/4oAi3MF

"Ageing populations and slower growth have compelled governments in mature welfare states to implement fiscal adjustments" ‬

- @nilsblossey.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of aging populations and slower growth on fiscal adjustments in mature welfare states. It evaluates the impact on public spending, particularly social spending, and suggests that adjustments have been more effective than previously recognized. The text references studies and data interpretations from 1978 to 2018, focusing on fiscal sustainability within developed nations.

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · Aug 9

The current state of AI for sustained work: exponential progress continues with no unexpected leaps but also no walls.

(The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect)

metr.org/blog/2025-03...

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · Jul 30

Irritating Discourse Cliche - "The Public Are Frustrated With Mainstream Politics" - up there with vague references to "the dangers of populism".

Look at the last century of democratic politics -

* Pre WW2
* Post-War
* Post-Post-War

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

WIRED @wired.com · Jul 29

New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. www.wired.com/story/big-te...

Big Tech Asked for Looser Clean Water Act Permitting. Trump Wants to Give It to Them

New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services.

www.wired.com

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · Jul 1

New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.

osf.io/preprints/os...

1/9

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Apr 28

It was great having you!

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Apr 18

Cool paper showing that unemployment risks causally increase demand for welfare state insurance (in Denmark): doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

doi.org

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Apr 8

@mbusemeyer.bsky.social, @slstutzmann.bsky.social, and I have a new article in the special issue "Greening the Economy: Toward a New Political Economy" in @reggovjournal.bsky.social, now out in print.

The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...

Digitalization and the green transition: Different challenges, same policy responses?

How do citizens perceive labor market risks related to digitalization and the green transition, and how do these risk perceptions translate into preferences for social policies? We address these ques...

dx.doi.org

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Apr 6

I've been a huge fan of Mr. Hussman's monthly market comments for years. Always informative and thought-provoking, he goes well beyond market analysis, weaving in broader social and economic themes. Just brilliant. Highly recommend!

John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp.bsky.social · Apr 5

The April comment includes a fresh signal from our Recession Warning Composite (which tipped on Tuesday - Wednesday just made it worse), and detailed analysis, charts, and data on markets, debt, deficits, profits, and even "waste, fraud, and abuse."
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed - Hussman Funds

In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third gre...

www.hussmanfunds.com

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Christian Breunig @breunig.bsky.social · Mar 31

Terrific lineup for our Comparative Politics & Political Economy series this summer,incl @clandwehr.bsky.social @finseraas.bsky.social @eunjikim.bsky.social @ccavaille.bsky.social @anewq.bsky.social & @valentimvicente.bsky.social . Thanks for organizing @tobiastober.bsky.social @na-wehl.bsky.social

Comparative Politics and Political Economy speaker series at the University of Konstanz

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 18

We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!

Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · Mar 18

📢Special issue and workshop on "The Politics of AI: Citizen Perceptions, Preferences, and Priorities" 📢

We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 18

@dweisstanner.bsky.social, @dschiff.bsky.social

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 18

FYI: @cfbalcazar.bsky.social, @gonzalezrostani.bsky.social, @sborwein.bsky.social, @beamagistro.bsky.social, @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social, @carloknotz.bsky.social, @julianachueri.bsky.social, @retobuergisser.bsky.social, @ndurazzi.bsky.social, @leonkuestermann.bsky.social, @kaylynjschiff.bsky.social

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 18

This initiative comes from my ZENiT project at @zukunftskolleg.bsky.social, together with @ainagallego.bsky.social, @nicolewu.bsky.social, @shirraviv.bsky.social, @mhaslberger.bsky.social, @thmskrr.bsky.social, and Sigi Manschein.

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 18

We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!

Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · Mar 18

📢Special issue and workshop on "The Politics of AI: Citizen Perceptions, Preferences, and Priorities" 📢

We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Dimiter Toshkov @dtoshkov.bsky.social · Mar 14

How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences?

A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries

Average support for further European integration of citizens (blue line, based on GAM with cubic regression splines) and positive orientation towards European integration of political parties (black dots and red line, based on a local polynomial regression) as functions of left-right self-placement of the citizens and general left-right party positions as estimated by experts. Originally, party positions on European integration are scored on a 1-to-7 scale, which has been rescaled from 0 to 10 to match the public opinion data. Data: ESS Wave 11 (2023), CHES (2024).

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 12

I'm not a China expert, just an interested observer. But if you compare how China regularly celebrates the return of successful scientists with the way science is being treated in the US under Trump, the contrast could hardly be greater.

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · Mar 10

“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?”

by John Konicki

Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Mar 11

"It would be a great mistake for U.S. policymakers to ignore DeepSeek or to suggest that its accomplishments are merely a combination of [IP] theft and misleading Chinese propaganda...DeepSeek has also demonstrated genuine technological breakthroughs" www.csis.org/analysis/dee...

DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race

In Gregory C. Allen’s latest report, he examines DeepSeek’s origins, achievements, and geopolitical impact, highlighting its implications for AI and semiconductor export controls. The report explores ...

www.csis.org

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Caroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · Mar 4

Important: Commission plan ‘Rearm Europe’ will not require unanimity. Hungary and Slovakia cannot block it on their own

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

Press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package

We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face. Or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those

ec.europa.eu

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 4

Yeah, we’ve played that game for way too long. It’s time to let others bark and do our job.

Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · Mar 4

IMHO, what really matters is that our own strategy in Europe doesn't hinge on any specific outcome. We need to focus on what we can actually do to secure our peace and prosperity, not waste energy trying to 'time the market,' whether economically or politically.

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Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · Mar 4

Trade with less developed countries reduces unionization in rich democracies. Global value chains lead to union decline even in countries with the most union-friendly institutions journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Global Value Chains and Union Decline in Rich Democracies - Matthew C. Mahutga, Manjing Gao, Roshan K. Pandian, 2025

This article reassesses the classic thesis linking the globalization of production to union decline. Our argument is three-fold. First, prior literature does no...

journals.sagepub.com

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · Feb 28

Well, the next Boris Johnson column is going to be a doozy

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Reposted by Tobias Tober

Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · Feb 27

Big tech has a tremendous impact on democracy

🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI

Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏

Details⬇️

www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...

Claes de Vreese on LinkedIn: Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We…

Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We presented our new report at a public hearing in The Danish Parliament - Folketinget. The…

www.linkedin.com

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