Only about a third of German AfD and French National Rally supporters view Trump positively, according to a new @politico.eu survey. Proof that the Vance/Musk dream of a like-minded far-right transatlantic front is just that: a dream

www.politico.eu/article/poli...

GS 2035 FX Forecasts

Spicy for JPY and CNH

China moving away from the presale system is highly positive from a macroeconomic risk perspective and makes it more likely that income taxes go up in the future

www.caixinglobal.com/2025-06-25/i...

Everyone sooner or later cames to the same realization: deep risk in the global hegemon cannot be hedged

I've been thinking more about the underlying tenets of investing in equity indices as a savings mechanism and how they may be breaking down in the U.S.

There are a few underlying premises around 'owning the market'

- the existence of a positive equity risk premium
- strong corporate governance

Very excited to announce this discussion with some amazing people about the interactions of the dollar, US foreign and fiscal policy, RoW responses, and a great many other things next week! (also, see pinned post). jainfamilyinstitute.org/monetizing-p...

FT: "“We should not only focus on how much GDP has grown and how many major projects have been built, but also on how much debt is owed,” Xi Jinping told the Central Urban Work Conference."
www.ft.com/content/9c19...

The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” passed by the House has important implications for US technology investment, manufacturing, and innovation. We unpack three key implications in new analysis 🧵: rhg.com/research/thr...

Run trade surpluses; have lots of FDI in & very little out except minerals/energy; keep everyone one step behind in tech & not trading with China or doing FDI in or out with them; the $ at the center of the IMFS; low interest rates; others defending themselves but only with our weapons. And a pony.

Hello, would you like to choose between access to the world’s largest buyer of consumer goods, but only provided you make most of the stuff here, and the world’s largest producer of cheap, high-quality capital goods, and the largest importer of commodities?

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Note that the increase in defense spending specifically takes the form —buy our stuff. The only good thing though is that it comes in 57 pages shorter than the original.

New statement from CEA Chair Stephen Miran, whose work people used to drum up the "Mar-A-Lago Accord" idea.

This is deeply unhinged stuff. Of the ideas presented, one (1) is helpful to rebalance the global economy (more defense spending by other countries).

www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

Wow. "Chinese authorities are investigating the financier son of Liu He, a former vice-premier and confidant of Xi Jinping who negotiated a trade deal with the first Trump administration.

Buried in the the reports from the “two sessions” earlier this month was an astonishing data point: China’s anticipated full-year fiscal revenue growth in 2025 was only 0.1% compared to 2024.

In other words, even if China's GDP grows at 5%, Beijing is expecting fiscal revenue to remain the same:

The long-term always arrives sooner than one expects

I would argue as of today there are many, many EMs with greater rule of law than the United States

I continue to think it is going to be a huge challenge to prevent Western consumers from buying an orders of magnitude cheaper and (potentially) technologically superior alternative to the 2nd largest purchase most people make in their lives

1/4
Interesting SCMP article about China's northeast. For years I've been telling clients that for all the promises of convergence, China is becoming two increasingly different regions.

www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Two months in and this is basically 100% on the money so far?

Our new note looks at how Berlin's policy towards China could evolve under a Chancellor Friedrich Merz. We expect de-risking to be pushed to the back burner in the short-term. But a "China shock" could force Germany to change its approach over time. And then there's Trump...

rhg.com/research/win...