But because the world that made them sensible no longer exists.
This is hindsight bias disguised as rigor.
A better question isn’t “Why did we choose this?”
It’s “What conditions made this survivable at the time?”
This is hindsight bias disguised as rigor.
A better question isn’t “Why did we choose this?”
It’s “What conditions made this survivable at the time?”
January 13, 2026 at 8:33 PM
But because the world that made them sensible no longer exists.
This is hindsight bias disguised as rigor.
A better question isn’t “Why did we choose this?”
It’s “What conditions made this survivable at the time?”
This is hindsight bias disguised as rigor.
A better question isn’t “Why did we choose this?”
It’s “What conditions made this survivable at the time?”
I recommend writing down how you think all of this chaos is going to impact asset pricing.
Get ahead of that hindsight bias, because I guarantee in 18 months you're going to say "duh, it was so obvious."
Get ahead of that hindsight bias, because I guarantee in 18 months you're going to say "duh, it was so obvious."
January 12, 2026 at 2:14 PM
I recommend writing down how you think all of this chaos is going to impact asset pricing.
Get ahead of that hindsight bias, because I guarantee in 18 months you're going to say "duh, it was so obvious."
Get ahead of that hindsight bias, because I guarantee in 18 months you're going to say "duh, it was so obvious."
I’m not gonna relitigate 2024 but everything I said here at the time is true so it wasn’t hindsight bias bsky.app/profile/qeda...
We literally saw this with Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Biden decided he wanted to one up her. These people are an embarrassment
January 11, 2026 at 6:12 AM
I’m not gonna relitigate 2024 but everything I said here at the time is true so it wasn’t hindsight bias bsky.app/profile/qeda...
The hindsight bias is going strong atm.
January 9, 2026 at 1:19 PM
The hindsight bias is going strong atm.
15/ Indeed in hindsight, the deeper Transformer model produces less elegant geometries than node2vec.
In more general (nastier) graphs, we suspect that memory may be a mix of associative/geometric. So, what notion of graph "complexity" & training dictates this bias?
In more general (nastier) graphs, we suspect that memory may be a mix of associative/geometric. So, what notion of graph "complexity" & training dictates this bias?
January 8, 2026 at 8:31 PM
15/ Indeed in hindsight, the deeper Transformer model produces less elegant geometries than node2vec.
In more general (nastier) graphs, we suspect that memory may be a mix of associative/geometric. So, what notion of graph "complexity" & training dictates this bias?
In more general (nastier) graphs, we suspect that memory may be a mix of associative/geometric. So, what notion of graph "complexity" & training dictates this bias?
Once again, I wonder a few years from now what history books will be like…
I can imagine many of them will be filled with hindsight bias instead of taking action In the moment.
I can imagine many of them will be filled with hindsight bias instead of taking action In the moment.
January 7, 2026 at 10:50 PM
Once again, I wonder a few years from now what history books will be like…
I can imagine many of them will be filled with hindsight bias instead of taking action In the moment.
I can imagine many of them will be filled with hindsight bias instead of taking action In the moment.
regarding the past of NATO: my nostalgia is bounded by No Good Men Among The Living
www.amazon.com/No-Good-Men-...
with dramatic bias of hindsight, maybe no soldier from anywhere should have been sent to Afghanistan after 9/11
and our allies should have abandoned that boondoggle too
www.amazon.com/No-Good-Men-...
with dramatic bias of hindsight, maybe no soldier from anywhere should have been sent to Afghanistan after 9/11
and our allies should have abandoned that boondoggle too
No Good Men Among the Living: America, the Taliban, and the War Through Afghan Eyes
Amazon.com: No Good Men Among the Living: America, the Taliban, and the War Through Afghan Eyes (Audible Audio Edition): Anand Gopal, Assaf Cohen, HighBridge, a Division of Recorded Books: Books
www.amazon.com
January 7, 2026 at 12:58 AM
regarding the past of NATO: my nostalgia is bounded by No Good Men Among The Living
www.amazon.com/No-Good-Men-...
with dramatic bias of hindsight, maybe no soldier from anywhere should have been sent to Afghanistan after 9/11
and our allies should have abandoned that boondoggle too
www.amazon.com/No-Good-Men-...
with dramatic bias of hindsight, maybe no soldier from anywhere should have been sent to Afghanistan after 9/11
and our allies should have abandoned that boondoggle too
I see a lot of people jumping in here to say it’s obviously written by AI, but don’t remember seeing anyone call it out as it spread
1) Hindsight: 20/20, etc
2) The average internet user isn’t paying enough attention to overcome the confirmation bias they are approaching these with
1) Hindsight: 20/20, etc
2) The average internet user isn’t paying enough attention to overcome the confirmation bias they are approaching these with
January 5, 2026 at 9:27 PM
I see a lot of people jumping in here to say it’s obviously written by AI, but don’t remember seeing anyone call it out as it spread
1) Hindsight: 20/20, etc
2) The average internet user isn’t paying enough attention to overcome the confirmation bias they are approaching these with
1) Hindsight: 20/20, etc
2) The average internet user isn’t paying enough attention to overcome the confirmation bias they are approaching these with
This is something that seems obvious in hindsight, but I never really thought of due to my colonizer bias.
I owe my education to a land grant university. I probably couldn't have afforded college otherwise.
I think that means I have a moral duty to advocate for reparations.
I owe my education to a land grant university. I probably couldn't have afforded college otherwise.
I think that means I have a moral duty to advocate for reparations.
I’m teaching this on week 5 this semester (among other academic things) and boy it’s gonna be an wild class, let me tell you.
www.hcn.org/issues/52-4/...
www.hcn.org/issues/52-4/...
Land-grab universities - High Country News
Expropriated Indigenous land is the foundation of the land-grant university system.
www.hcn.org
January 5, 2026 at 2:42 PM
This is something that seems obvious in hindsight, but I never really thought of due to my colonizer bias.
I owe my education to a land grant university. I probably couldn't have afforded college otherwise.
I think that means I have a moral duty to advocate for reparations.
I owe my education to a land grant university. I probably couldn't have afforded college otherwise.
I think that means I have a moral duty to advocate for reparations.
It's not hindsight bias if you're playing to optimize your chances to win. Moving closer improves the chances of hitting it. The steelers kicker had just missed his first extra point of the year.
January 5, 2026 at 4:55 AM
It's not hindsight bias if you're playing to optimize your chances to win. Moving closer improves the chances of hitting it. The steelers kicker had just missed his first extra point of the year.
i get the hindsight bias but loop hasn't missed under 50 all year
January 5, 2026 at 4:44 AM
i get the hindsight bias but loop hasn't missed under 50 all year
there were MILLIONS of posts on 4chan. Hindsight investigations have inherent tracks and bias. It uses the info from the act to trace one user.
January 4, 2026 at 2:52 AM
there were MILLIONS of posts on 4chan. Hindsight investigations have inherent tracks and bias. It uses the info from the act to trace one user.
No one knew the outcome by the time he would have had to start arranging the new job. That is hindsight bias.
January 4, 2026 at 1:59 AM
No one knew the outcome by the time he would have had to start arranging the new job. That is hindsight bias.
...
The idea that history is by nature subject to hindsight and survivorship bias is something I'd considered, but never really thought too deeply about.
I really enjoyed the discussion of Tolstoy's view of this and how he juxtaposed the great man's view of history with the lived experience.
...
The idea that history is by nature subject to hindsight and survivorship bias is something I'd considered, but never really thought too deeply about.
I really enjoyed the discussion of Tolstoy's view of this and how he juxtaposed the great man's view of history with the lived experience.
...
January 1, 2026 at 3:08 AM
...
The idea that history is by nature subject to hindsight and survivorship bias is something I'd considered, but never really thought too deeply about.
I really enjoyed the discussion of Tolstoy's view of this and how he juxtaposed the great man's view of history with the lived experience.
...
The idea that history is by nature subject to hindsight and survivorship bias is something I'd considered, but never really thought too deeply about.
I really enjoyed the discussion of Tolstoy's view of this and how he juxtaposed the great man's view of history with the lived experience.
...
So im Nachhinein betrachtet ist das natürlich völlig richtig
January 1, 2026 at 1:33 AM
So im Nachhinein betrachtet ist das natürlich völlig richtig
Sounds like “prototype matching” applied with “hindsight bias,” resulting in “apophenia”
Prototype matching—a cognitive pattern-recognition type, doesn’t require exact fit
Apophenia—perceiving nonexistent patterns
Hindsight bias—often: retroactive memory reconstruction to fit existing prototypes
Prototype matching—a cognitive pattern-recognition type, doesn’t require exact fit
Apophenia—perceiving nonexistent patterns
Hindsight bias—often: retroactive memory reconstruction to fit existing prototypes
December 31, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Sounds like “prototype matching” applied with “hindsight bias,” resulting in “apophenia”
Prototype matching—a cognitive pattern-recognition type, doesn’t require exact fit
Apophenia—perceiving nonexistent patterns
Hindsight bias—often: retroactive memory reconstruction to fit existing prototypes
Prototype matching—a cognitive pattern-recognition type, doesn’t require exact fit
Apophenia—perceiving nonexistent patterns
Hindsight bias—often: retroactive memory reconstruction to fit existing prototypes
I think the main point is that written history is an imperfect, detached and unscientific record of change AND this makes it impossible to be considered a science. But, this excerpt also feels like it's akin to hindsight and/or survivorship bias.
🤔
🤔
December 31, 2025 at 11:57 AM
I think the main point is that written history is an imperfect, detached and unscientific record of change AND this makes it impossible to be considered a science. But, this excerpt also feels like it's akin to hindsight and/or survivorship bias.
🤔
🤔
No that’s hindsight bias I think. There was much discussion of possible bubbles ahead of 2000 and 2008 crashes, perhaps less than now, but now as then there are plenty of boosters also, and I think system is biased towards boosterism
December 30, 2025 at 10:36 AM
No that’s hindsight bias I think. There was much discussion of possible bubbles ahead of 2000 and 2008 crashes, perhaps less than now, but now as then there are plenty of boosters also, and I think system is biased towards boosterism
Yeah, I certainly don’t mean to say everything was done perfectly (though some hindsight bias is happening among many, I think); only to make clear that lots of people are speaking super loosely as though Dems had the power to force a senate vote in the wee hours of 1/7, and no.
December 29, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Yeah, I certainly don’t mean to say everything was done perfectly (though some hindsight bias is happening among many, I think); only to make clear that lots of people are speaking super loosely as though Dems had the power to force a senate vote in the wee hours of 1/7, and no.
As we roll into 2026, this thread should offer a nice antidote to hindsight bias by illustrating how often the ex ante consensus has been wrong-footed by the ex post reality. As Kahneman put it, “The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future”.
2025 IN MARKETS* 📈📉📈🧵
1. People came into the year pretty bullish on US stocks and $ (because Trump)
US stocks soar more than 20% for second year in a row
www.ft.com/content/b413...
Dollar surges against euro and sterling
www.ft.com/content/e572...
*focusing on big markets in US and Europe
1. People came into the year pretty bullish on US stocks and $ (because Trump)
US stocks soar more than 20% for second year in a row
www.ft.com/content/b413...
Dollar surges against euro and sterling
www.ft.com/content/e572...
*focusing on big markets in US and Europe
US stocks soar more than 20% for second year in a row
Investor excitement over AI helps Big Tech once again drive gains in blue-chip S&P 500
www.ft.com
December 29, 2025 at 2:46 PM
As we roll into 2026, this thread should offer a nice antidote to hindsight bias by illustrating how often the ex ante consensus has been wrong-footed by the ex post reality. As Kahneman put it, “The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future”.
What's it called when you notice a pattern, and then, in hindsight, find all the things that fit that pattern to justify the pattern?
I guess "confirmation bias" of sorts, but there's gotta be a more specific term for numerology type stuff (golden ratio, pi, 23, 42, etc., etc.)
I guess "confirmation bias" of sorts, but there's gotta be a more specific term for numerology type stuff (golden ratio, pi, 23, 42, etc., etc.)
December 29, 2025 at 1:45 PM
What's it called when you notice a pattern, and then, in hindsight, find all the things that fit that pattern to justify the pattern?
I guess "confirmation bias" of sorts, but there's gotta be a more specific term for numerology type stuff (golden ratio, pi, 23, 42, etc., etc.)
I guess "confirmation bias" of sorts, but there's gotta be a more specific term for numerology type stuff (golden ratio, pi, 23, 42, etc., etc.)
the accident wouldn’t have happened.
But it’s also true that all accidents are preventable in hindsight. This is a particular form of hindsight bias for post-accident.
How could they not have seen that!?!
Is not the question.
What did they see in that moment in the full context?
Is better.
But it’s also true that all accidents are preventable in hindsight. This is a particular form of hindsight bias for post-accident.
How could they not have seen that!?!
Is not the question.
What did they see in that moment in the full context?
Is better.
December 28, 2025 at 7:02 AM
the accident wouldn’t have happened.
But it’s also true that all accidents are preventable in hindsight. This is a particular form of hindsight bias for post-accident.
How could they not have seen that!?!
Is not the question.
What did they see in that moment in the full context?
Is better.
But it’s also true that all accidents are preventable in hindsight. This is a particular form of hindsight bias for post-accident.
How could they not have seen that!?!
Is not the question.
What did they see in that moment in the full context?
Is better.
the beginning of hasunosora stuff and kaho was my fav, which i was rly surprised abt bc ive never liked the main brown/orange haired love live girls (even tho i have orange hair bias. crazy). anyways ruby was my initial aqours fav til i feel in love with you <3 and in hindsight i think i would >
December 26, 2025 at 5:42 AM
the beginning of hasunosora stuff and kaho was my fav, which i was rly surprised abt bc ive never liked the main brown/orange haired love live girls (even tho i have orange hair bias. crazy). anyways ruby was my initial aqours fav til i feel in love with you <3 and in hindsight i think i would >
Also there is a hindsight bias just because something did happen in history doesn't mean the result was inevitable.
December 25, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Also there is a hindsight bias just because something did happen in history doesn't mean the result was inevitable.