Industrial Strategy
Industrial policy is proactive government-led encouragement and development of specific strategic industries for the growth of all or part of… more
Source: Wikipedia
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US economy added nearly 1 million fewer jobs than previously reported in 2024-early 2025. Actual job growth was only about half of what the government initially claimed. The labor market may be much weaker than it appeared.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...
Job Growth Revised Down by Nearly a Million, Updated BLS Data Shows
Preliminary annual revisions could add to political pressure on the agency that produces the data.
www.nytimes.com
by Industrial Strategy — Reposted by: Cullen S. Hendrix, Simon Lester
We begged Korea for factory investments. Our visa system is too slow (and was shut down altogether for a while earlier this year) , so they used ESTA/B-1 workarounds. Now we're raiding the sites and halting the investments we wanted. 22 projects frozen.
www.kedglobal.com/business-pol...
www.kedglobal.com/business-pol...
Korea’s major US investment projects halted as detained LG Energy workers set for release - KED Global
ELLABELL, Georgia – The South Korean government has secured the release of about 300 nationals detained following a raid by US authorities on an ele
www.kedglobal.com
by Aaron Sojourner — Reposted by: Industrial Strategy, Colin F. Camerer, Greg Linden , and 1 more Industrial Strategy, Colin F. Camerer, Greg Linden, Jonas Nahm
"The tariffs’ uncertainty has forced insurance companies to raise rates... consumers have to pay that extra cost”
8/8 John Deere's struggle shows how tariffs can create a vicious cycle. They raise costs for manufacturers, hurt their customers through retaliation, reduce demand, and force layoffs. The very companies tariffs claim to protect end up as collateral damage in a trade war.
7/8 Half of U.S. imports are inputs for domestic manufacturing. When you tax steel and aluminum, you make it more expensive for American companies like John Deere to build things here. You're not protecting manufacturing—you're kneecapping it.
6/8 Today's jobs report confirms the broader damage: Manufacturing employment fell by 12,000 jobs last month and has declined every month since May. This mirrors exactly what happened during Trump's previous trade war in 2018-19.
5/8 When farmers can't sell their crops, they can't buy new tractors. John Deere expects large agricultural machinery sales to fall 15-20% in 2025. Tractor prices have risen 60% over 8 years—now desperate farmers are flocking to the used equipment market.
4/8 But tariffs aren't just hurting John Deere directly—they're crushing their customers too. China hit back with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans. Result: Soy exports to China down 51% this year, and American farmers will lose $3.4 billion on their soybean crop.
3/8 John Deere is as American as it gets. Founded in 1837, employs 30,000 workers in 60 U.S. facilities, assembles 75% of its machines domestically, and sources only 25% of components from abroad. This should be a tariff success story.
2/8 Tariffs on steel and aluminum have already cost John Deere $300 million this year, with another $300 million expected by December. Net income is down 29% from last year. The company just laid off 238 workers across Illinois and Iowa.
1/8 John Deere is the exact type of American manufacturing company Trump says he wants to protect with tariffs. But those same tariffs are crushing the iconic tractor maker—and it's a perfect case study in how trade wars backfire.
buff.ly/gBpj5xy
buff.ly/gBpj5xy
Fair, but the Economist makes it sound like there aren't any European players even trying to get into this game. Seems like VW is doing at least advanced testing. Other than Waymo and now Tesla, it's not like anyone is ferrying passengers at scale in the US.
America lost 7k construction jobs in August, and overall job growth in the sector is now at its worst pace since the pandemic
Over the last year, the US has lost 31k jobs in residential construction and only gained 78k jobs in nonresidential & civil construction
Over the last year, the US has lost 31k jobs in residential construction and only gained 78k jobs in nonresidential & civil construction
Ahead of #JobsDay tomorrow, Friends of BLS published a FAQ answering pressing questions like:
Can the public trust BLS products?
What's up with the firing of Dr. McEntarfer & nomination of Dr. Antoni?
Why and how does the BLS revise jobs estimates?
#EconSky
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
Can the public trust BLS products?
What's up with the firing of Dr. McEntarfer & nomination of Dr. Antoni?
Why and how does the BLS revise jobs estimates?
#EconSky
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
Background Information for Jobs Day – Sept 5 — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Click Background Information for Jobs Day – Sept 5 to read the entire PDF document.
www.friendsofbls.org
12/12 Tariffs are working as revenue generators but imposing significant costs on consumers through higher prices. The weakening dollar and lack of foreign absorption make impacts worse than theory suggested, though some domestic production shows promise for economic rebalancing.
11/12 The Fed signals one fewer cut in 2026, but markets expect more dovish policy than the Fed projects. This disconnect suggests either the Fed or markets are misreading how tariff impacts will unfold across the economy over the coming months.
10/12 Imports initially surged as businesses front-loaded purchases, then crashed 7% below trend by June. This boom-bust cycle was widely anticipated and reflects rational tariff front-running.
9/12 After plunging 15% through April, the S&P 500 recovered to 10% gains since December. This suggests investors see tariff impacts as manageable long-term, though many factors influence market performance beyond trade policy.
8/12 Industrial production in tariff-sensitive sectors surged 3.5% since December: an unexpected bright spot that returns output to early-2024 levels and beats trend expectations. Some domestic manufacturing is clearly benefiting despite employment weakness.
7/12 Manufacturing employment in tariff-sensitive sectors declined 0.3% year-to-date while overall tariff-sensitive employment grew only 0.3%, just one-third the pace of pre-2025 trends. The labor market is showing clear signs of stress from trade policy changes.
6/12 Services prices haven't weakened to offset higher goods costs, staying near pre-2025 trends. Economic theory suggested services might decline to provide relief, but consumers are instead facing the full brunt of goods price increases without compensating decreases elsewhere.
5/12 Foreign producers aren't absorbing tariff costs as some hoped: Import prices are actually slightly above pre-2025 trends, meaning 100% of the tariff burden is falling on US importers and consumers, consistent with 2018 tariff studies.
4/12 The dollar has weakened 7% since December, the opposite of what economic theory predicts. This amplifies tariff costs since a weaker dollar makes imports even more expensive, compounding the burden on American households and businesses.
3/12 Tariffs are hitting household budgets hard: Core goods prices are 1.9% above pre-2025 trends, with electronics up 5.7%, appliances up 3.9%, and furniture up 3.1%. The 61-80% passthrough rate matches economist predictions but offers little comfort to consumers.
2/12 Revenue collection: $88 billion generated from new tariffs year-to-date, with $23 billion in August alone. At 0.8% of GDP monthly, tariffs are providing meaningful deficit reduction, though actual rates lag statutory rates due to avoidance and timing issues.
1/12 Yale Budget Lab's new analysis reveals mixed results from 2025 tariffs through August. Some effects align with economic theory, others present concerning developments, and a few show unexpected bright spots. Here's what the data shows:
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sho...
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sho...
Short-Run Effects of 2025 Tariffs So Far
Tariff Revenue: New 2025 tariffs have raised $88 billion in revenue year-to-date through August so far, with the new tariffs responsible for about $23 billion in revenues in August alone.
budgetlab.yale.edu
Perhaps not entirely surprising, but trade policy uncertainty is preventing the kind of reshoring from China that is ostensibly one of the administration's central goals. For now, firms are staying put.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Trump’s attempts to lure companies away from China are backfiring
U.S. firms wrestling with Trump’s unpredictable trade policy are calculating it's better to stay put in China than reshore — at least for now.
www.politico.com