Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Alberto Cavallo on consumer prices deviation from trend, post-Trump trade war start #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

3 12

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

US ag exports - prospects in the Trump 2.0 era #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 12

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Trump slams the ag sector, so govt financial support is needed (again!) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

5

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Are we in a recession? The heavy truck sales indicator suggests so (but Sahm rule doesn not) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

3 1 6

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

5

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

What data releases will we miss? What data are not being collected if the shutdown goes 22 days (current Kalshi estimate)? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

7 14

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Betting is on gov't shutdown to 21 Oct or so - so maybe no CPI release for you (for a while)! Nowcasts suggest accelerated CPI (instantaneous) inflation, steady core #EconSky @janeeckhout.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 2 14

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab private NFP series for firms 1-499 suggests downturn #Econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

2 6

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Agree, egregious. Is it worse than Trump 1.0 Hassett CEA chair using polynomial to predict Covid fatalities? Hard to say...

5

by Justin Wolfers — Reposted by: Menzie Chinn, Melissa Johnson, Aaron Sojourner , and 1 more Menzie Chinn, Melissa Johnson, Aaron Sojourner, David Darmofal

Justin Wolfers

@justinwolfers.bsky.social

Trump's CEA is circulating its estimate of the economic cost of the government shutdown.

But, BREAKING: It's wrong. It makes a simple arithmetic error. And it's dishonest.

Surprising, I know. 🧵

23 470 1.1K

by Michael J. Hicks — Reposted by: Menzie Chinn

Michael Hicks

@profhicks.bsky.social

Proud to talk to the NYT about freedom of expression.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/u...

She Was Fired for a Comment on Her Private Facebook Account

www.nytimes.com

2 13

Reposted by: Menzie Chinn, Anna O. Law, Will Jennings , and 11 more Menzie Chinn, Anna O. Law, Will Jennings, Tom Clark, Robert W. Wallace, Michael A. Clemens, Kevin Carey, Robert C. Richards, David R. Miller, Aaron Sojourner, Dean Eckles, Greg Linden, David Gamage, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick

@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social

What DHS pulled in Chicago on Tuesday is wildly unconstitutional. They smashed down almost every door in the building, dragged entire families into the street, and detained people for hours ("Kavanaugh stops").

Ms. Fisher was held for five hours and another senior citizen was held for three hours.

Rodrick Johnson, 67, is one of many residents who were detained by federal agents during the South Shore raid. A U.S. citizen, he said agents broke through his door and dragged him out in zip ties.

Johnson said he was left tied up outside the building for nearly three hours before agents finally let him go.

“I asked [agents] why they were holding me if I was an American citizen, and they said I had to wait until they looked me up,” Jones said. “I asked if they had a warrant, and I asked for a lawyer. They never brought one.”

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by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

FT-Booth f'cast implies no catch-up to 2023-24 trajectory #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 7

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Point estimate suggests drop in BLS private NFP, but broad prediction interval #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

4

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

I feel so much better looking at ADP data alone... (EJ Antoni memorial comment) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

8

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

#EconSky @uwmadison.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 12

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Rejoice! #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

2 2 19

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

World Bank on the importance of boosting investment in EMDEs #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 3

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Jamel Saadaoui on identifying geopolitical turning points #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 6

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Random thought: EJ Antoni might get his wish for quarterly employment releases if the shutdown lasts long enough... (although if there are no working employees to do follow up requests for firms to answer their surveys, not sure how much more accurate numbers will be after a month delay...) #EconSky

3 10

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

#EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

1 5

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Confirmed: Confidence/Sentiment down #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 3

Reposted by: Menzie Chinn, Claudia Sahm, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 1 more Menzie Chinn, Claudia Sahm, Rosemary A. Joyce, Jon Green

Mike Konczal

@mtkonczal.bsky.social

New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.

I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...

Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential

Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.

mikekonczal.substack.com

2 13 43

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

#EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 3

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

The Trump Shock and the deviations of GDP and "Core GDP" from trend are different... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

1 5

by Menzie Chinn

Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

Jeffrey Frankel on why might some voters vote the way they do... #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Guest Contribution: “Do Voters Pursue Their Economic Self-Interest?” | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

2 1 3

Reposted by: Menzie Chinn

Jesse Coburn

@jessecoburn.bsky.social

New: four million people could be forced to leave public housing and other federally assisted housing under new plans from the Trump administration, according to experts who reviewed drafts of two unpublished rules obtained by @propublica.org.