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John Kane

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H-index: 26
Political science 48%
Physics 27%
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
A short-and-sweet guide to developing research questions published in @nature.com.

Lots of good advice here 👍
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Really appreciate it, Rikio! My primary goal for that paper was for it to be as practical and useful for researchers as possible, so this is really nice to hear! 😊🙏
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by John Kane — Reposted by: Winston T. Lin

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up.

IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.

medium.com/the-quantast...
The Only Three Reasons to Do a Ph.D. in the Social Sciences
If none are true, don’t do it.
medium.com
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Just heard about this from a friend. Wow. It’s like the Refused, Hives, Minus (circa “Jesus Christ Bobby” album), and At the Drive-In all combined together in the best possible way. Loving it.

by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
My goodness—hope the recovery keeps going smoothly, Raul! 🤞
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by John Kane — Reposted by: David Darmofal

uptonorwell.bsky.social
🚨 Very flattered to have a piece, w/ the terrific
@miacosta.bsky.social, in the new @apsa.bsky.social Experiments Newsletter!

In it, we offer some thoughts on how to think about how "realistic" experimental results are. Might be useful for students 😁

connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...
Newsletter: Main Page
connect.apsanet.org
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Many thanks for the s/o, Arieda! I’m really glad you liked it and hope folks find it useful 😊
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Reposted by: John Kane, Yue Qian

ariedamuco.bsky.social
If you use Stata and you want to make nice coefficient plots, this article by @uptonorwell.bsky.social is really fantastic!

medium.com/the-stata-ga...
Making Regression Coefficient Plots in Stata
Traditionally, researchers reported results of regression analyses using tables. A more visually appealing way of presenting these results is by using a coefficient plot. Unlike a typical scatterplot…
medium.com
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Just submitted book revisions 🥳 and wanted to write something a little more "fun."

I've been wanting to write this one for a long time and just posted it on Medium (no paywall 👍). For the profs out there, it might serve as a useful class reading (?). Hope you enjoy!

medium.com/@jvk221/3-st...
3 Statistical Problems with Fate
We’ve all thought about whether particular events in our lives might have been due to Fate. Here are 3 statistical problems with doing that.
medium.com
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Agreed, yes. I think what we're showing is that info about the "inflation rate" might not be interpreted the way we assume. There's clearly a lot of public confusion about what it means.

Lots more to do on this, so thank you for the feedback! 😁
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
I just checked and the partisan difference still holds. It's true that Ds tend to be more educated than Rs, but the difference isn't huge. On top of that, the % of the sample with post-grad edu (~15%) probably isn't big enough to drive that effect.

But yeah, edu is definitely a part of the puzzle.

by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Good question! It's looking like those with post-graduate degrees are the only ones with a (albeit narrow) plurality answering correctly.

But even still, it's a surprisingly small % 😕
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Oh yes, that’s another huge misunderstanding indeed. I’d love to know the share of the public that makes that mistake
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
p.s., this is some early data from a current project with the great @cbwlezien.bsky.social 👍
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by John Kane — Reposted by: Scott Clifford

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Inflation was a big issue--maybe even *the* issue--in 2024.

But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates?

Using some new data from @verasight.bsky.social, the answer seems to be largely: no.

On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.
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Reposted by: John Kane, Scott Clifford

amengel.bsky.social
New open-access pub in @jepsjournal.bsky.social with two great SBU grad students, @nicolehufman.bsky.social and Veronica Oelerich.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Reposted by: John Kane

carlislerainey.bsky.social
some quick notes

"Kane (2025) as a Power Paper"

Kane (2025) makes several suggestions for compelling null results. These also help us maximize statistical power.

www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-03...
Carlisle Rainey - Kane (2025) as a Power Paper
Kane (2025) makes several suggestions to help researchers make a compelling case for null results. These are also helpful action items to maximize statistical power.
www.carlislerainey.com
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Truly wild to see that this just hit 300 citations on GS 🤯

It's a good lesson for PhD students--this started as a short homework assignment for a class on causal inference. At first I just wanted to know if MC placement matters. But over time, it turned into much more & led to several more papers.
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Much appreciated, David! And thank you again for generously giving me feedback on an early draft of it! 🙏
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Thanks so much, Hans!

Yep, empirically, a candidate whose party has already served two terms may have a slight disadvantage—but it doesn’t seem to be inherent.

That disadvantage, though, pales in comparison to the advantage held by 1-term incumbents (historically speaking) 👍
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Link to article (open access!): www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Two terms of endearment? Incumbent-party performance in US presidential elections | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Two terms of endearment? Incumbent-party performance in US presidential elections - Volume 13 Issue 3
www.cambridge.org
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
My article on incumbency advantage in presidential elections is now out w/ issue and page numbers 🥳

Key finding: Being an incumbent president comes w/ inherent electoral advantages after 1 term. After 2 terms, a party is not inherently *dis*advantaged--just no more incumbency advantage.
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Aww, so sorry, Julia 😔

by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
A look at partisanship in the U.S. right now--what partisans will tolerate, what they won't, and where the parties differ.

(From an ongoing project with @iganson.bsky.social; n = ~1,100; graph made in @statacorp.bsky.social 😊)
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Yes! Though it looks like it’s restricted to “methodology papers” and meta-analyses (?)

by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Hard to express what a relief it is to have just submitted the first complete draft of my book manuscript to @ucpress.bsky.social 😮‍💨🥳

5+ years in the making.
249 pages.
82,000 words.
0 ChatGPT. 😉

A million thanks to all those who gave me guidance and inspired me along the way! 🙏
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
Thanks for the s/o, Matt!
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Reposted by: John Kane

mattgraham.bsky.social
Rs forgetting about the deficit is a classic case of what Kane & Anson call "deficit attention disorder." Their classic article: link.springer.com/article/10.1... @uptonorwell.bsky.social @iganson.bsky.social
‘Nobody’s talking about it’: Republicans’ incredible shrinking deficit talk
Only a few fiscal hawks raised debt worries, before almost all of them fell in line on the tax and spending megabill.
www.semafor.com
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
For those currently writing and/or grading papers, always good to keep this distinction in mind
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by John Kane

uptonorwell.bsky.social
It makes sense, yep. Unfortunately, though, people can easily forget over time...

BUT, per your idea about taking actual econ courses, there is definitely some evidence that those with higher education are better on this question

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