Scholar

Nicolai von Ondarza

Videos
H-index: 7
Political science 80%
Economics 10%
more

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

View post

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Welcome to @cergrant.bsky.social on bluesky - always a great mind on all things EU and definite must-follow for everyone interested in European Affairs!
1 1 14

by Nicolai von Ondarza — Reposted by: Steve Peers

nvondarza.bsky.social
Missed this earlier - as part of its series of bilateral arrangements with EU member states, the UK signed this strategic framework with Spain in early September.

It includes cooperation on defence, security, but also migration, foreign affairs, people to people, energy, climate and more:
rielcano.bsky.social
Real Instituto Elcano / Elcano Royal Institute @rielcano.bsky.social · 16h
Spain was the only one of the four major EU economies without a bilateral agreement with the UK—until last month, when both countries signed a strategic framework.
✍️ William Chislett #InsideSpain
www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/commentar...
Spain and the UK deepen bilateral ties within a strategic framework
The UK-EU agreement on Gibraltar has unlocked a road map for greater cooperation between Spain and Britain.
www.realinstitutoelcano.org
8 18

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

rielcano.bsky.social
Spain was the only one of the four major EU economies without a bilateral agreement with the UK—until last month, when both countries signed a strategic framework.
✍️ William Chislett #InsideSpain
www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/commentar...
Spain and the UK deepen bilateral ties within a strategic framework
The UK-EU agreement on Gibraltar has unlocked a road map for greater cooperation between Spain and Britain.
www.realinstitutoelcano.org
2 2

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Always a matter of national decision, with delicate balance in semi-presidential systems. For instance Poland sends the PM, Romania the President. Both have systems with directly elected Presidents but also powerful governments.
1 2

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
All the attention in UK polls is on the leading position of reform.

But the First Past the Post System, with five parties above 10%, plus the regional strengths of the SNP (Scotland) and Plaid (Wales) should caution that the next election is going to be a most unpredictable affair.
electionmaps.uk
Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 21h
Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.
1 2 9

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

swp-berlin.org
Das Südchinesische Meer ist für China strategisch, wirtschaftlich & militärisch sehr wichtig. @angelastz.bsky.social @swp-asia.bsky.social erklärt, welche Interessen Europa & Deutschland in der Region haben & welche Folgen die aggressive Politik Chinas hat (ab 24.10) www.inforadio.de/rubriken/wel...
Konflikte im Südchinesischen Meer: Was will China?
Das Südchinesische Meer ist einer der gefährlichsten Brennpunkte der Weltpolitik - strategisch, wirtschaftlich und militärisch. Hier kreuzen sich die Handelsrouten Asiens, und genau hier fordert China...
www.inforadio.de
2 5

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza, Steve Peers

jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social
The EU is seriously considering a new proposal to restrict the movements of Russian diplomats, a move long advocated by the Czech Republic.

Here's what we know.
EU considers new plan to restrict movements of Russian diplomats
If approved, the system would oblige Russian diplomats to notify in advance their intention to travel to or transit through another member state. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com
2 5 22

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
It is not a direct feature from Bluesky, but if you follow @listifications.app they send you a DM if you are put on lists & starter packs (what I originally wanted to know) and also when someone blocks you.
1 2

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

frhoffmann.bsky.social
Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

1/6
What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness
Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness
missilematters.substack.com
4 26 110

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
* Apologies to Michael Kaeding - I unfortunately overlooked that autocorrect changed Kaeding to Harding :(

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
It includes many analysis by great colleagues on all issues surrounding the EP2024 elections.

Among those is a deep dive by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the fluid EP political groups, with a special focus on the changes amongst the far-right groups.
2

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Now here in paper - the extensive book coordinated by Michael Harding, Alexander Hoppe and @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu on the EU 2024 elections:

www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...
2 2 14

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza, Steve Peers, Anand Menon , and 1 more

electionmaps.uk
Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.
17 44 100

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Anybody who reads my work or my feed knows this is the exact opposite of what I am posting about. People like @spacer.bsky.social can you not at least check who you are putting on block lists?
1 1 16

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Via clearsky.app you can check whether you are on some block lists. Turns out I am on a couple of block lists labeled as fascist, racists etc.

Why? Because I followed JD Vance account on here (which I do to check what he is posting for research)
2 5 19

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
I love using bluesky, but sometimes the community is wierd.

So I keep getting 'blocked' notifications, recently ~2-3 a week, in total I have now been blocked by 100+ people.

Not that it matters a lot, but I wanted to find out why.
3 1 10

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

alberto-rizzi.bsky.social
I wrote my bachelor thesis on the enhanced cooperation clause as a desireable tool to go forward without waiting for Godot (aka reform of treaties) and nothing has developed on that front in the ten years that have passed. Totally share your skepticism.
1 1 6

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

danielhegedus.bsky.social
2/4
If Western actors fear the (re-)emergence of a Central European axis between Babiš, Orbán, and Fico, they should not respond to the Czech election results with reservations, but rather take a proactive approach.
www.authlib.eu/event-video-...
Event Video - Bohemia Illiberalis? Perspectives on Czechia’s Future After the Elections
What will the return of Andrej Babis mean for Czech domestic politics and foreign policy? Our experts discuss in the immediate aftermath of the parliamentary election.
www.authlib.eu
1 1 1

by Nicolai von Ondarza — Reposted by: Steve Peers, Paul Lehmann, Robert C. Richards

nvondarza.bsky.social
The same article includes a reference to an @swp-berlin.org paper that does not exist.

There are many ways AI can support research, but just letting it write your articles with fake citations certainly is not the way.
3 11 27

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza, Ugo Panizza, Ian Hall , and 7 more

rikefranke.bsky.social
And here we go. I never wrote this article, and yet it is cited here.

www.liberalbriefs.com/geopolitics/...

And of course, it sounds so plausible, I seriously checked whether I had forgotten it, or the footnote was slightly wrong.

#AIisnotresearch
42 330 900

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Both fringes are now strong enough to table motions of censure. But even if they strategically envoke controversial policies - ie Mercosur, vdL's stance on Gaza etc. - their ultimate aim is to weaken and destroy the pro-European centre.
2 1 6

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Provocative piece by @davekeating.substack.com, but with a conclusion I strongly disagree with.

Von der Leyen does not face the series of motions of censure due to her (also debatable) weakness in front of Trump, but because the far-left and particuarly the far-right are emboldened in EU politics.
ipq.bsky.social
Internationale Politik Quarterly @ipq.bsky.social · 5d
As part of our five-year anniversary, today we launched Close-Up, a profile series.

Up first: @davekeating.substack.com on Ursula von der Leyen, the notoriously controlling European Commission president, a year into her second term.

ip-quarterly.com/en/ursula-vo...
Ursula von der Leyen: Queen in the Commission, Servant in the Council
A year into her second term, the European Commission’s notoriously controlling president is attracting criticism for neutering her college of commissioners while blindly following the EU’s 27 national...
ip-quarterly.com
2 10

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
The thing about political power is, that even in a presidential system, if political authority is gone, its gone.

Despite everyone saying Macron will not resign, I find it hard to imagine he can keep this up until 2027 except if new parliamentary elections deliver a complete surprise.
pascallth.bsky.social
Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 23h
Tough times for Macron

One former PM, Attal, has said he no longer understands what Macron is doing

Not to be outdone, another former PM, Philippe, has said he thinks there should be early presidential elections

Both lead parties within the notional 'Macronist' bloc
1 1 7

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

pascallth.bsky.social
Tough times for Macron

One former PM, Attal, has said he no longer understands what Macron is doing

Not to be outdone, another former PM, Philippe, has said he thinks there should be early presidential elections

Both lead parties within the notional 'Macronist' bloc
1 1 6

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza

davidcarretta.bsky.social
Pilot episode number 4 for La Matinale Européenne in English

Starring @cspillmann.bsky.social : "Macron Scuttles France and Sinks Europe".

With @grimmse.bsky.social

We would be happy to have your feedback.

europemorningpost.substack.com/p/macron-scu...
Macron Scuttles France and Sinks Europe
Good morning!
europemorningpost.substack.com
2 4

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza, Dirk Pilat

financialtimes.com
New data shows the ways millions of people have integrated AI into their everyday lives. Also, it suggests that for now at least, AI is an individual productivity tool — both at work and in our personal lives — rather than the broader workplace disrupter many in Big Tech predicted. on.ft.com/47cKBVN
11 15 34

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza, Simon Usherwood

heidimaurer.bsky.social
Call for Papers for @ecpr.bsky.social @ecprsgeu.bsky.social section “Teaching in EU Studies in the Digital Age”

to explore how AI, digitalisation & new pedagogies are reshaping #EU Studies

more info: ecpr.eu/Events/Event...
deadline: 10 December 2025
Teaching in EU studies in the digital age
European Consortium for Political Research
ecpr.eu
1 6 7

by Nicolai von Ondarza

nvondarza.bsky.social
Interesting take. Though I'd argue that Spain has become incredibly polarised, so while Sanchez may have reached out to the left, he has completely broken with the centre-right, whereas Macron seemingly lost everyone.
jeremycliffe.bsky.social
Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 1d
There's a fascinating case study to be done on the different strategies of Macron and Sánchez. Both emerged, against the odds, from centrist milieux in the mid-2010s to lead their countries since 2017/18. But their fates are totally different.
2 10

Reposted by: Nicolai von Ondarza, Ben H. Ansell

jeremycliffe.bsky.social
There's a fascinating case study to be done on the different strategies of Macron and Sánchez. Both emerged, against the odds, from centrist milieux in the mid-2010s to lead their countries since 2017/18. But their fates are totally different.
5 45 130

References

Fields & subjects

Updated 1m