Andrew Morral
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andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral
@andrewmorral.bsky.social
890 followers 390 following 94 posts

Greenwald Chair in Gun Policy at RAND.

Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research: https://www.ncgvr.org

Co-Director of RAND’s Gun Policy In America initiative: https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html. .. more

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Public Health 26%
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andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Apr 17
I am happy to announce some improvements to our state firearm law database and tools. The database is now updated to cover dozens of laws from 1979 to Jan 1, 2024. In addition … 🧵

www.rand.org/research/gun...
State Firearm Law Navigator
Research on the effects of gun laws requires good data on when and where different types of laws have been implemented. The State Firearm Law Navigator shows which states since 1979 have enacted 20 cl...
www.rand.org

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

clanfear.bsky.social
Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 18h
Thank you Andrew! Very honored! We really enjoyed putting this paper together and are very pleased by the response it has gotten. Huge thanks also to the NCGVR for the funding for the fifth wave that made this and other recent work possible.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
The paper is published in Science Advances, and is open access. Find it here: science.org/doi/epdf/10....
science.org

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
They also document a period-specific rise in adult carrying, 2016-2020, which coincides with broader social insecurity and a liberalized carry environment, suggesting that policy solutions must look beyond adolescent violence to address risks posed by durable adult-carry culture.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
They highlight two pathways to concealed gun carrying: adolescent carrying, which tends to be short-lived and triggered by direct exposure to gun violence, and adult-onset carrying, which is persistent, increasingly legal, and less tied to immediate victimization.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
I also want to congratulate @clanfear.bsky.social, David Kirk and Rob Sampson, whose paper “Dual pathways of concealed gun carrying and use from adolescence to adulthood over a 25-year era of change” was one of two selected for honorable mention by the 2025 Greenwald Award Independent Review Panel!

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
This suggests an urgent need to mitigate gun theft and lost police effectiveness when loosening carry laws, since these indirect harms—not actions by permit holders themselves—appear to fuel the observed crime increase.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
They find that violent crime rises when states adopt right-to-carry handgun laws, an effect driven in part by a sharp increase in gun theft (50%) and diminished police performance in solving violent crimes.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
Congratulations to John J. Donohue and colleagues, whose paper, “Why do right to carry laws increase violence? Effects on gun theft and clearance rates,” was one of two selected for honorable mention by the 2025 Greenwald Award Independent Review Panel! sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Why do right to carry laws increase violence? Effects on gun theft and clearance rates
Since the 1970s most state restrictions on carrying handguns in public have been eased or eliminated. Several of the early impact evaluations of these…
sciencedirect.com

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 21h
Here is the Independent Review Panel's full commendation for this award-winning paper:

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 2d
Congratulations to @rsbeidas.bsky.social and her team for winning the $5000 Greenwald Award for research on firearm violence prevention for their paper, "Implementation of a Secure Firearm Storage Program in Pediatric Primary Care: A Cluster Randomized Trial"! static1.squarespace.com/static/63924...
static1.squarespace.com

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 26d
No. This cannot be right. 56 additional injuries per 100k is not plausible for a 1% increase in food insecurity. Please double check this claim. Or provide the citation, and I will.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 28d
www.wsj.com/us-news/homi...
Six Words Every Killer Should Know: ‘I Feared for My Life, Officer’
The number of legally sanctioned homicides has grown substantially in states with expanded self-defense rights under stand-your-ground laws.
www.wsj.com

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 28d
Interesting WSJ analysis of NIBRS data finds justifiable homicides rising more rapidly than total homicides in Stand-Your-Ground states, and faster than it is rising in non-SYG states. The intended effect of SYG!, but they note some real problems with application of these laws.
Six Words Every Killer Should Know: ‘I Feared for My Life, Officer’
The number of legally sanctioned homicides has grown substantially in states with expanded self-defense rights under stand-your-ground laws.
www.wsj.com

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Oct 16
A joke, I know, but I enjoyed and completely agree with; statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/11/7...
7 reasons to use Bayesian inference! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral, Sanford F. Schram, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

gregsargent.bsky.social
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · Oct 15
We constantly talk about Dems' struggles to reach deeper into the culture and access people who ignore politics.

You know what issue is penetrating deep into the culture? ICE's masked raids and kidnappings! It's on Rogan and in country music. In the Manosphere!

newrepublic.com/article/2018...

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Sep 20
Specifically, homicides and car crash fatalities were trending down, but then reversed in 2015 and started rising. Between 2010 and 2014 opioid deaths increased by 0.6 (per 100k) per year, but jumped by 1.6 in 2015, and 3.5 in 2016. Depression has an earlier inflection by 2 years

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Sep 20
Am I squinting too hard, or is there more structure to these trends than explained by COVID? In three of these series something happens around 2015, as well as peaking in 2021. Do you work with other series that look like this? Any grand theories?

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Sep 14
CDC Wonder is down?

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

acyn.bsky.social
Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · Sep 4
New Mexico AG Torrez: One of the biggest issues we face is gun violence. We haven’t seen any surge of federal law enforcement agencies dedicated to helping us reduce gun violence. What we’ve seen instead is a lot of the performative stuff — DHS going down to paint the wall to make it hotter.

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29
These are undoubtedly underestimates. Without mandatory reporting of lost/stolen guns (in most states) how many private citizens never report a loss, or even a theft?
andrewmorral.bsky.social Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29
Per a recent ATF report, in 2023 there were 208,184 firearms lost/stolen:
- 188,560 from private citizens
- 9,479 lost by gun dealers
- 5,755 stolen from gun dealers
- 4,390 lost/stolen in shipping

More than 1M between 2019-2023

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

daniel-webster.bsky.social
Daniel Webster @daniel-webster.bsky.social · Aug 29
Gun owners, lock up your guns.
I can’t help but wonder about the thousands of guns lost and stolen from licensed gun dealers. How many were sold off the books? How many were stolen by employees who aren’t required to be vetted? It’s signals poor regulation and oversight.
andrewmorral.bsky.social Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29
Per a recent ATF report, in 2023 there were 208,184 firearms lost/stolen:
- 188,560 from private citizens
- 9,479 lost by gun dealers
- 5,755 stolen from gun dealers
- 4,390 lost/stolen in shipping

More than 1M between 2019-2023

Reposted by Daniel Webster

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Aug 29
Per a recent ATF report, in 2023 there were 208,184 firearms lost/stolen:
- 188,560 from private citizens
- 9,479 lost by gun dealers
- 5,755 stolen from gun dealers
- 4,390 lost/stolen in shipping

More than 1M between 2019-2023

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

governorwalz.mn.gov
Governor Tim Walz @governorwalz.mn.gov · Aug 29
It’s time to take serious action at the State Capitol to address gun violence.

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

thetrace.org
The Trace @thetrace.org · Aug 17
The Trump administration is moving to slash the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention. Here’s what’s at stake. thetr.ac/MGM94

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders, Mark A. Lemley, Brady T. West , and 15 more

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · Aug 1
Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.

It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

joycefdn.bsky.social
The Joyce Foundation @joycefdn.bsky.social · Jul 25
We’re #hiring for the role of Gun Violence Prevention and Justice Reform Program Director. Learn more at the link below and please share with your networks.
joycefoundation.bamboohr.com/careers/30
Program Director, GVPJR
FOUNDATION OVERVIEW The Joyce Foundation is a private, nonpartisan philanthropy that invests in public policies and strategies to advance racial equity and economic mobility for the next generation in...
joycefoundation.bamboohr.com

andrewmorral.bsky.social
Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jul 11
LAST CALL: Nominations for the $5,000 Greenwald Award for Excellence in Firearm Violence Prevention Research close in less than two weeks.
andrewmorral.bsky.social Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · Jun 3
Reminder: The 2025 Greenwald Family $5000 Award for the best research paper on gun violence/injury prevention/gun policy is accepting nominations now through July 24, 2025. Qualitative and quantitative studies from all academic disciplines are eligible.
www.firearmresearchsociety.org/2025-greenwa...
www.firearmresearchsociety.org

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

saletan.bsky.social
Will Saletan @saletan.bsky.social · Jul 10
Trump's move to investigate and prosecute James Comey, the former director who documented Trump's attempt to corrupt the FBI, is a grave step toward American authoritarianism.

This article, which I wrote in 2019, lays out the evidence. The president is trying to silence those who expose his crimes.
Mueller Proved Comey Told the Truth
And the president lied.
slate.com

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

jeffasher.bsky.social
Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · Jul 2
San Francisco has reported 11 murders through June 2025 and 31 over the last 12 months. That's the fewest murders through June and fewest rolling over 12 months ever recorded (monthly reporting from the FBI starts in 1960).

Reposted by Andrew R. Morral

jeffasher.bsky.social
Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · Jun 23
It's not just the US murder rate that is likely at or near the lowest level ever recorded. The data from the first 4 months of 2025 points to the possibility of the lowest reported property crime rate ever & lowest violent crime rate in decades. This week's piece:
jasher.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...
It's Not Just Murder That's Likely At Historic Lows
The US is on track to record the lowest violent crime rate since 1968 and lowest property crime rate ever.
jasher.substack.com