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Cathal Walsh

@cathalwalsh.bsky.social

840 followers 230 following 110 posts

Professor of Biostatistics, Trinity College Dublin. There’s more to counting than numbers. people.tcd.ie/walshc Born c. 335ppm. Small wheel cyclist. Biostatistician.

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Economics 27%

Public Health 18%

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Dr David Robert Grimes @drg.bsky.social · 10d

If you're a clinician or researcher in Ireland feeling a little overwhelmed by statistics, join myself & @cathalwalsh.bsky.social on 11th October in SJH for a 6-credit CPD Essential Medical Statistics, where we'll demystify things together. Tickets here!

www.eventbrite.ie/e/essential-...

Essential Medical Statistics and Evidence Appraisal

Learn how to interpret and apply essential medical statistics and evidence in a practical and engaging way at our upcoming event!

www.eventbrite.ie

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Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Aug 13

@bromptonbicycle.bsky.social

ir todos los días incluso por el camino español

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Aug 2

This is outrageous but not without precedent
‘Stick to your principles and to the rules at all times. Never compromise. If you compromise in anything, you will not feel well with yourself, and it will create a liability that will come back to haunt you.’

rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Anders Åslund @andersaslund.bsky.social · Aug 1

It is very unfortunate that the US will no longer have any reliable federal statistics until Trump is gone.

Even the best private job statistics, ADP, tends to be far off from the more comprehensive Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. These statistics cannot be privatized.

Brian Tyler Cohen @briantylercohen.bsky.social · Aug 1

And we're officially at the end of being able to trust the jobs numbers in this country ever again.

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Reposted by Steven Heydemann, Cathal Walsh

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · Aug 1

The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump’s first admin.

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social · Aug 1

Leader Schumer: "What does a bad leader do when they get bad news? Shoot the messenger. That's just what happened with the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Republicans Against Trumpism @rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social · Aug 1

🚨 Trump is demanding the firing of the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, because the jobs report was bad.

When you can’t rig the numbers, fire the messenger. Classic authoritarian move.

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Noah Bookbinder @noahbookbinder.bsky.social · Aug 1

Donald Trump is firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics right after they reported weak jobs numbers. If firing someone in charge of statistics because the objective statistics make you look bad isn't some authoritarian nonsense, I don't know what is.

Trump fires labor statistics boss hours after weak jobs report

The president implied that the BLS commissioner, long-time federal employee Erika McEntarfer, manipulated the data "for political purposes."

www.nbcnews.com

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh, Scott L. Greer, Steve Peers , and 11 more Cathal Walsh, Scott L. Greer, Steve Peers, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Mark D. White, Bruce Baker, Rosemary A. Joyce, Michael J. Allen, Bruce D. Baker, Gerry Canavan, Raffaella Ravinetto, Els Torreele, Anna Grzymała-Busse, David Lay Williams

NBC News @nbcnews.com · Aug 1

BREAKING: President Trump fires the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics hours after weak jobs report.

Trump fires labor statistics boss hours after weak jobs report

The president implied that the BLS commissioner, long-time federal employee Erika McEntarfer, manipulated the data "for political purposes."

nbcnews.to

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · Jul 31

How does the risk of death change as we age?

Age-specific mortality in the US, broken down by diseases and external causes, using data from the CDC Wonder between 2018 and 2021.

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Nicki Lygo @drlygo.bsky.social · Jan 4

Carol Morgan is remarkable
214 Wainwright peaks in 193hr 51m 47s

She is the now the winter Wainwrights record holder, the first woman to do it in winter & the only person ever to do it in mid winter

We will run out of superlatives talking about this record

📷 www.granddayoutphotography.co.uk

A photograph of Carol Morgan, taken last night at Moot Hall in Keswick, holding up the Irish flag, as she became the first person to complete a mid winter Wainwrights round

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · Feb 18

We put together an Epiverse how-to guide showing how to implement this for COVID and Ebola: epiverse-trace.github.io/howto/analys...

In the example above, we show results from a Linton et al estimate of onset-to-death (mean 20 days), which gives infection peak around 18th March (figure below).

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Andrew Coogan @cooganlab.bsky.social · Feb 27

I am just trying to give a fucking lecture.

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · Apr 3

[quietly flips safety and moves finger towards Modus Tollens]

Donald Tusk @donald-tusk.bsky.social · Apr 3

Friendship means partnership. Partnership means really and truly reciprocal tariffs. Adequate decisions are needed.🇪🇺🇺🇸

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

David Colquhoun @davidcolquhoun.bsky.social · Apr 11

I agree with @mendelrandom.bsky.social (as usual). And our ignorance about facts is one reason that general AI will never work well. It feeds on data about the natural world, and those data often don't exist. No amount of computation can compensate for ignorance.

Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · Jun 28

www.linkedin.com/pulse/twin-p...?

Twin Piques

www.linkedin.com

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Marion Campbell @marionkcampbell.bsky.social · Jul 21

We often now hear the term “Bayesian borrowing” in trials. But what is Bayesian borrowing and what are the pros and cons around its use? 1/6
#MethodologyMonday #122

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Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jul 20

Fair play to them - and to Tipperary today! Tá sé (camánaíocht) an-chosúil le hiománaíocht - ach is dóigh liom go bhfuil an iománaíocht níos fearr - cé nach amhlaidh atá an scéal i mbliana do Chorcaigh!

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jul 20

I hope it was a more balanced game than today’s All Ireland Hurling final - a game of two halves.

Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · Jul 18

We’ve all been in meetings like this
on.ft.com/3GS1Ykp

On the eve of the proposal, von der Leyen's own budget commissioner Piotr Serafin, who is tasked with selling the significantly enlarged budget to EU capitals, had "no clue" of the complex formula that would determine how much each country would receive, according to a person involved in the discussions.
Despite other commissioners making pleas for advanced notice of the budget breakdown, they were only given final figures of their funding in the minutes before a meeting scheduled to sign it off.
That meeting started four hours later than scheduled.

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Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jul 5

But, look, he is speaking publicly, and they are saying nothing to him. Do the authorities really know that this is the Christ?

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jul 1

True and true. There are many cases where the calculations are intractable and numerical approaches (sometimes framed as simulation - e.g. Monte Carlo integration - but aren’t) are helpful. But data, and hence the related evidence are different. ‘No amount of computation compensates for ignorance.’

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jun 29

Nice commentary @stephensenn.bsky.social - needs as much attention as the original article!

Stephen Senn @stephensenn.bsky.social · Jun 28

www.linkedin.com/pulse/twin-p...?

Twin Piques

www.linkedin.com

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jun 29

True. 4–7-8 breathing for me!

Reposted by Cathal Walsh

Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · Jun 19

XKCD has a Tukey quote for Tukey's 110th birthday
xkcd.com/3104/

Many of his specific inventions have been made obsolete over time, but he was a major contributor to data analysis and visualisation being serious and respectable parts of statistics research

Tukey

xkcd.com

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Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jun 16

Does anyone else have problems with CAPTCHAs? Is the back of a traffic light not a traffic light? We live in a world where Completely Automated Public Turing tests tell Computers and Humans Apart but don’t!

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jun 13

Praying for you. Any churches nearby (rhetorical)?

Random cathedral only 293km from Santiago.

Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jun 12

‘and not one of their many offshoots!’ ;)

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Cathal Walsh @cathalwalsh.bsky.social · Jun 11

Buen Camino!