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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 16m

Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“

Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 4d

Time may no longer be on Russia's side.

US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

Yup, my take too.

Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 5h

A new phase has begun in Russia’s war on Ukraine, where strategic long-range strikes outweigh front-line advances in determining the war’s trajectory

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

Shld make clear I continue to think it’s quite unlikely Trump agrees to provide UKR w Tomahawks.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

This IMO is the usual bluster from Moscow but two points: the war keeps “escalating” in myriad ways, and given West isn’t directly engaged, “escalation management” is inevitable (but that doesn’t tell you how to manage); US cld impose target restrictions plus commit to non-nuke models/warheads etc.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 8h

Kremlin spokesman Peskov, commenting on possible Tomahawk transfer to Ukraine, said the missiles are nuclear-capable or could be turned by Ukrainians into long-range "dirty bombs", suggesting Russia would treat their launch as a nuclear strike.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

This IMO is the usual bluster from Moscow but two points: the war keeps “escalating” in myriad ways, and given West isn’t directly engaged, “escalation management” is inevitable (but that doesn’t tell you how to manage); US cld impose target restrictions plus commit to non-nuke models/warheads etc.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 8h

Kremlin spokesman Peskov, commenting on possible Tomahawk transfer to Ukraine, said the missiles are nuclear-capable or could be turned by Ukrainians into long-range "dirty bombs", suggesting Russia would treat their launch as a nuclear strike.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

Also this. Tit-for-tat and more F16s and armaments.

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 9h

What does Ukraine do in response? Do they start attacking Russian power generation? Its a scary world we are in.

Also, thank god for the F-16s. They are vital to Ukrainian air defense--though many analysts were arguing against them years ago because the Ukrainians could not operate them. Ha.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

V good on what IMO will likely be the key strategic focus in the coming months—RU’s LRS campaign against civilian quality of life vs UKR’s layered AD w Wstrn asst. NB: “… if the RUs are firing hundreds, maybe even thousands, of systems per week, that means that hundreds are reaching their targets.”

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 9h

Hi all, Just sent out my free weekend update. It ended up being focussed on the strategic air war. Russia, once again, is trying to make Ukrainian cities unliveable in winter. They have benefited by the US slow walking air defense--though Europeans are helping more. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #154: The Strategic Air War And The Approaching Winter

Russian Attacks, Ukrainian Options for Defense, and F-16s

open.substack.com

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6h

Strong agree, except I’d add “so far.”

Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 6h

Zelensky and his administration, along with several European leaders, deserve credit for the way they have handled Trump, effectively minimizing the damage he could cause and limiting his potential support for Putin

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 9h

The US is helping Ukraine strike Russian energy infrastructure by providing intelligence for drone flight planning, FT reports. Since summer, this support has enabled precise attacks on oil refineries and pipelines, cutting Russian diesel exports and forcing fuel imports.

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Tymofiy Mylovanov @mylovanov.bsky.social · 20h

Ukraine's small F-16 fleet now flies roughly 80% of all Ukrainian Air Force sorties despite limited pilot numbers and armament.

F-16 wing vice commander "AB" revealed his unit downed over 1,000 Russian Shahed drones and dozens cruise missiles — Air & Space Forces Mag. 1/

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 1d

⚡️Fires reported in Russia's Belgorod oblast amid suspected power plant attack, local officials say.

Falling debris from downed missiles sparked fires and caused damage in Belgorod, Russia, the regional governor reported Oct. 11 amid a suspected attack on a power plant in the city.

Fires reported in Russia's Belgorod oblast amid suspected power plant attack, local officials say

Falling debris from downed missiles sparked fires and caused damage in Belgorod, Russia, the regional governor reported Oct. 11 amid a suspected attack on a power plant in the city.

kyivindependent.com

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 1d

100%.

Anders Puck Nielsen @anderspucknielsen.dk · 1d

There is more than one reason for why Putin decided to invade Ukraine. It's not either a genocidal project of eliminating Ukrainian nationhood or about great power competition with NATO — it's both (and a couple more, in fact).

Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 1d

When Putin talks to a Russians he consistently says that they invade Ukraine to destroy the state and nation and correct the path of history. NATO and similar framings are just for the useful foreigners.

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 1d

A Ukrainian delegation is set to visit Washington next week to negotiate the purchase of additional air defense systems as well as HIMARS rocket systems as part of a "Mega Deal", President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press briefing on Oct. 10.

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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 2d

“The contracted worth "hundreds of millions" is financed by an EU member state, using the proceeds from frozen Russian assets, the company said, without naming the country.”
kyivindependent.com/rheinmetall-...

Rheinmetall to supply Ukraine with additional Skyranger air defense systems

The upcoming delivery addresses Ukraine's urgent need for cost-effective air defense solutions as Russia intensifies drone attacks.

kyivindependent.com

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WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 1d

Zelensky says Ukraine has 203 key sites that must be protected by air defense, including energy, gas, and water infrastructure. He emphasizes these are just the critical ones, with many more needing coverage.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 1d

Pretty pretty sure this is going to turn out to be another nothing burger. What’s the likelihood Moscow produces “objective and detailed information” about these children? Gonna say close to zero.

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 2d

❗️Melania Trump reported that Putin responded to her letter regarding child protection.

According to her, Russia is allegedly demonstrating its willingness to provide objective and detailed information about the Ukrainian children it kidnapped.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Yup.

🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 @specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 2d

Trump thanked Putin for his support after he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Flattering Trump remains the easiest investment for dictators.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Dumb thing for Putin to say, IMO, even if it’s true.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Putin insists Trump is “bluffing” about sending Tomahawks to Ukraine — and calls beefing up Russia’s air defenses his response to this “blackmail.”

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 2d

⚡️ US Senate approves $925 billion defense bill, proposes $500 million for Ukraine.

The legislation reflects a $100 million increase in the aid for Ukraine over the House of Representatives' version.

US Senate approves $925 billion defense bill, proposes $500 million for Ukraine

The legislation reflects a $100 million increase in the aid for Ukraine over the House of Representatives' version.

kyivindependent.com

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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 2d

It's impossible to know what went into the committee's decision, but Machado is a symbolically savvy choice, given Trump has recently pretended to care about Venezuela, making it hard for him to dismiss her importance.

It will also cast any decision to invade the country in a harsher light.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Definitely worth watching for those in need of a morale booster in these alarming times.

Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 2d

Truly wonderful

Sherrilyn Ifill @sifill.bsky.social · 2d

“Oh my god… I have no words.”

Listen to the emotional moment this year’s laureate Maria Corina ( finds out she has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, shared the news.

NobelPrize #NobelPeacePrize

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Thread. Strong agree. Never thought it was likely the Nobel Committee wld pick Trump but nonetheless thank God.

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 2d

Machado is a good choice. She'll be controversial because she's in the fight, not above it. That makes this prize continuous with the 2021-3 streak of honoring opposition figures and dissidents rather than do-gooder organizations or already-powerful officials.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Pretty clear RU is going to make a push to strike power facilities and make winter as miserable as possible for UKR civilians. Continue to think it’s a mistake to think defensive systems alone can manage this. Key is going to be eventual UKR LRS tit-for-tat.

Kyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 2d

This is what the Russian strikes on an energy facility in Kyiv looked like.

Putin’s forces targeted infrastructure yet again, leaving civilians to face blackouts and fear.

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 2d

⚡️Ukraine, UK negotiating joint production of 2,000 interceptor drones monthly.

"Very shortly, we'll be producing around 2,000 drones a month, deliberately shipping all of them to Ukraine so they can be used to intercept Russian drones," U.K. Defense Readiness, Industry Minister Luke Pollard said.

Ukraine, UK negotiating joint production of 2,000 interceptor drones monthly

"Very shortly, we'll be producing around 2,000 drones a month, deliberately shipping all of them to Ukraine so they can be used to intercept Russian drones," U.K. Defense Readiness and Industry Minist...

kyivindependent.com

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Why deterring RU hybrid war is hard. NB: “…deterrence by punishment could potentially create a stronger deterrent... so far the main concept for deterrence by punishment has been “deterrence by attribution”…RU is clearly quite far beyond the point of caring...” Yup.
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Easier Said Than Done: Hybrid Deterrence By Punishment

This week, Minna Ålander turns to the question of how to move from defensive reactions to Russian hybrid warfare to an effective deterrent. (Spoiler: not easy)

open.substack.com

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Well, it must have been painful, but looks like Rutte’s butt kissing may pay off. Taken one for the team.

Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 2d

[Q]: Are you going to step up the pressure for a Ukraine deal?

President Trump:
Yeah, we are stepping up the pressure. We're stepping it up together.
NATO's been great. The leader of NATO, as you know, Mark, has been fantastic, I think. And he's a fantastic guy.

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