Joeri Rogelj
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joerirogelj.bsky.social
Joeri Rogelj
@joerirogelj.bsky.social

prof. climate science & policy | Imperial College London | 1.5C/net zero/carbon budget/pathways/justice | IPCC & UNEP lead author | ESABCC member | father

Joeri Rogelj is a Belgian climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. He is a Professor in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change. .. more

Environmental science 39%
Economics 26%

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social said:

"COP30 leaves us between a rock and a hard place […] These NDCs have come in hesitantly, inadequately and unambitiously. They move the needle, but insufficiently to confidently avoid 1.5°C or even 2°C of global warming.”

There's lot to be worried and concerned about.

It is good to see that some things are gradually (but so incredibly slowly) moving in the right direction. /end

My last reflection on the scientific framing is a nice reference to the decade-long work we carried out as part of the @unep.org #emissionsgap report tracking mitigation progress and estimating global warming.
Those have been lowered from 4C per-Paris to 2.3-2.5C (or even a bit lower) today. /7

The next sections then reconfirm the Paris Agreement temperature goal, the Glasgow Climate Pact's resolve to focus on 1.5C, but critically also more openly discuss the risks of overshoot and the need to limit it. /6

The acknowledgement of the IPCC's centrality in providing the best available science of a nice shift from past years where it could even not be thanked for its work. /5

The decisions then start with a strong reaffirmation and commitment to multilateralism and the Paris Agreement.

Nice to read.
Would have been even better to see it lived. /4

It continues highlighting key mitigation benchmarks, including the remaining carbon budget, with numbers that seem terribly outdated.

Historical emissions in 2020 already added up to 4/5 (80%) of the total carbon budget for 1.5C with 50% chance.
Today, more than 95% of the 1.5C budget is used. /3

The preamble opens highlighting the current shortfall in emissions reductions, including a reference to how the world failed 5 years ago to close the pre-2020 gap, a reference to the reductions expected from developed countries, but not the 15-30% reduction below baseline for developing regions. /2
New text @cop30brazil.bsky.social provides a glimpse of where #COP30 might land.

Some reflections on references to science and evidence. /1

unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int
COP30: "Best available science" = IPCC is back

The second draft "mutirão" text "recognises the centrality of equity and the best available science…as provided by the IPCC"

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

In 2009, the Maldives’ underwater cabinet meeting showed the world the reality of rising seas. 🌊

As Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social notes, it helped put the 1.5°C target “front and centre.”

16 years on, its message is more urgent than ever.
'This is going to be much bigger than we thought': The legacy of a famous underwater photoshoot
The photo shaped the world's perception of the existential threat climate change poses to low-lying island nations.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

⚠️Current pledges and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions put the world on a high-risk climate track, towards warming levels of 2.8°C by the end of this century warn @joerirogelj.bsky.social, @robinlamboll.bsky.social & @j-bird.bsky.social.

📒 ow.ly/cpTr50Xq1X1

#COP30

Stories abound these days showing that global warming exceeding 1.5C is now part of science's best estimate.

What does that mean for the #ParisAgreement 1.5C goal?

A good time to revive a thread about a piece we wrote earlier this year on this topic in @science.org 👇🌍🌡️
What becomes of the 1.5°C goal now that global warming is approaching that level?🌍🔥🌡️

In a new @science.org Policy Forum we explain how the 1.5°C goal remains a critical legal & ethical benchmark, even as the world nears and may soon exceed 1.5°C of global warming🧵1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
The pursuit of 1.5°C endures as a legal and ethical imperative in a changing world
As the world nears 1.5°C of global warming, near-term emissions reductions and adequate adaptation become ever more important to ensure a safe and livable planet for present and future generations
www.science.org
COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges

With COP30 kicking off on Monday, a new paper by Julia Schönfeld and Professor Joeri Rogelj provides a framework for assessing countries’ climate pledges 🧵

Learn more: ow.ly/CiB050XnMK2
COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges | Imperial News | Imperial College London
A new study, for the first time, shows how the ‘highest possible ambition’ of countries' climate pledges can be assessed.
ow.ly

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Two years ago, the @esabcc.bsky.social published its advice on the EU's 2040 emissions reduction target. We indicated a 90-95% reduction relative 1990 levels.

Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% target, with an 66.25-72.5% reduction as part for its new NDC for 2035.
Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% net reduction in GHG emissions by 2040. The Council also updated the NDC with an indicative 66.25–72.5% reduction by 2035 The @esabcc.bsky.social contributed to this process by providing independent scientific advice on the 2040 climate target.

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% net reduction in GHG emissions by 2040. The Council also updated the NDC with an indicative 66.25–72.5% reduction by 2035 The @esabcc.bsky.social contributed to this process by providing independent scientific advice on the 2040 climate target.

It has been a privilege to contribute to this report as a lead author for the 16th year running.
Today is the official launch of this year's @unep.org #EmissionsGap report.

It's title says it all

OFF TARGET

that's true for progress, NDCs and implementation
New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

We explicitly highlight how delays in global emissions cuts mean that holding warming below 1.5C is not possible anymore.

The pursuit of limiting warming to 1.5C, however, remains imperative albeit from above instead of from below.

We show new NDCs lower the highest global warming projections but fall well short of limiting warming below 1.5C.
What is the current state of climate action? What do latest country pledges add up to?
And how much global warming are we in for? 🌍🌡️ 🔥
For the 16th year in a row, we publish the @unep.org #emissionsgap report.
As usual, I looked the assessment of the global gap and its global warming implications.
NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century.

The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

Grantham Institute Director of Research Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social was lead author on Chapter 4 of the report, which also includes contributions from Imperial’s Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social.

Read the report in full here: ow.ly/V7Zy50XmtCz

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century.

The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵
New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

OUT NOW: we revisit the pivotal moment when science, institutions and politics aligned to deliver the UK’s #NetZero target. At a time of political divergence, the evidence for #ClimateAction remains clear. Evidence-based #ClimatePolicy is more relevant than ever. @granthamicl.bsky.social
Net Zero: The inside story of the UK’s climate target
YouTube video by Grantham Imperial
www.youtube.com

In this context, this forthcoming @granthamicl.bsky.social shortfilm on the UK’s net zero journey will offer a timely reflection on how science, institutions, and politics aligned to deliver evidence-based #ClimatePolicy serving the public interest. 2/2
bsky.app/profile/gran...
COMING SOON…

In 2019, the UK made history as the first major economy to commit to net zero by 2050.

But, while the science hasn’t changed, political consensus is fracturing.

We can’t wait to share our new film & to tell the inside story of the UK’s climate target

Stay tuned…
👀13 October

Next week, we reflect on how science and society shaped the UK’s #NetZero target. As political consensus wavers, the scientific evidence underpinning the need for rapid #ClimateAction remains robust and unequivocal. 1/2

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

COMING SOON…

In 2019, the UK made history as the first major economy to commit to net zero by 2050.

But, while the science hasn’t changed, political consensus is fracturing.

We can’t wait to share our new film & to tell the inside story of the UK’s climate target

Stay tuned…
👀13 October

Pope Leo XIV has reaffirmed the imperative to act upon climate change and environmental degradation.

This firm response to climate science deniers marks the 10th anniversary of his Predecessor Pope Francis' encyclical "On Care of Our Common Home".

www.bbc.com/news/article...
Pope Leo hits out at critics of global warming
In his first major statement on climate change, the pontiff criticises those who minimise climate change.
www.bbc.com
IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · Oct 2
The third and final day of the #OvershootConference kicked off with an insightful report-back and reflection session, where theme leads shared insights from their discussions so far.

See insights from discussions on Day 2 in the thread below: