Michael S. Pollard
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sociologian.bsky.social
Michael S. Pollard
@sociologian.bsky.social

Sociologist and Demographer at RAND. Research mostly on social connection, substance use (alcohol and cannabis), and migration, but with many tangents. Opinions = my own, RTs ≠ endorsements.
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iRep51wAAAAJ&hl=en .. more

Psychology 30%
Public Health 24%
Pinned
13 months ago I refused to promise "no cats" on this account. Here, finally, is a shameless appeal to new followers: my cat in a box.

They are way ahead of you. It's on tour now. www.babybjorn.com/north-americ...
North American Bouncer Tour
Join us at store events as we bring our beloved giant bouncer on tour around North America!
www.babybjorn.com

As was the style at the time.

@genebaxter.bsky.social Good old Utah over-delivering on the Oak- names!

This whole thread is a wild ride. Get a cup of coffee and enjoy!
Baby names aren’t just personal choices; they reflect culture, geography, gender, identity, and as i've been investigating, politics too. I’ve been analyzing 50 years of U.S. baby naming to see how they map onto political polarization in the U.S.
Here’s what I found 🧵

@genebaxter.bsky.social this whole thread might be relevant to your interests.

What do you make of this?: "Applications voted by the committee to be in the middle third will be designated as 'competitive but not discussed' ... Applications in the middle third will be considered for funding, along with the discussed applications."
Baby names aren’t just personal choices; they reflect culture, geography, gender, identity, and as i've been investigating, politics too. I’ve been analyzing 50 years of U.S. baby naming to see how they map onto political polarization in the U.S.
Here’s what I found 🧵

Reposted by Michael Pollard

New NIH guidance related to the shutdown. One of the changes is that "the percent of applications discussed in most meetings will be reduced to 30-35%, instead of the current ~50%."
NOT-OD-26-012: Updated Guidance on Reopening of NIH Extramural Activities Following the October 1, 2025 - Lapse in Appropriations
NIH Funding Opportunities and Notices in the NIH Guide for Grants and Contracts: Updated Guidance on Reopening of NIH Extramural Activities Following the October 1, 2025 - Lapse in Appropriations NOT-...
grants.nih.gov

[cue "Just What I Needed" by The Cars]

"Twenty years ago, the U.S. spent almost four times as much as China on research and development. But by 2023, China had almost closed the gap."
Research from ASA members Yu Xie and Junming Huang @princeton.edu illustrates how China is attracting scholars, especially in STEM fields, in the wake of the administration’s funding cuts and immigration restrictions in this @washingtonpost.com article.
Why Trump’s cuts to scientific research are a big win for China
China is attracting American scientific talent, especially in STEM fields, partly due to funding cuts and immigration restrictions under President Donald Trump.
bit.ly
Research from ASA members Yu Xie and Junming Huang @princeton.edu illustrates how China is attracting scholars, especially in STEM fields, in the wake of the administration’s funding cuts and immigration restrictions in this @washingtonpost.com article.
Why Trump’s cuts to scientific research are a big win for China
China is attracting American scientific talent, especially in STEM fields, partly due to funding cuts and immigration restrictions under President Donald Trump.
bit.ly

Reposted by Michael Pollard

The number of new international students in the U.S. has dropped by 17 percent. wapo.st/3M6uNvC

[cue Ama-zinc Grace for this farewell penny montage]

Policymakers should consider approaches to addressing fertility decline beyond financial incentives, including removing structural barriers to expanding families by improving access to affordable child care and housing. 2/2

New research alert! In this report we evaluate the past decade of China's pronatalist policies, and how the U.S. can learn from their lack of impact. There are ways to help reduce unmet fertility intentions, rather than increase fertility intentions more broadly. 1/2
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Assessing China’s Efforts to Boost Fertility
China's government has implemented a range of pronatalist policies aimed at reversing fertility decline. Have these policies worked? What lessons might they offer for the United States?
www.rand.org

It has been almost four months since I last posted my cat. Here she is inspecting a puzzle with 299 cat-shaped pieces, and one dog-shaped piece. Happy Friday!

Apparently Rubik's Cube has created a nightmare stress baby with the Perfection game by creating "Rubik's Pulse Cube" -- you have 60 seconds to solve the cube before all the color drains out and it turns blank on all sides. I'm sweating just thinking about it.

Here's a quick 11 min chat about low birth rates and population panic. I'll pile on with the note that the United States is one of only eight countries in the world to not offer a paid federal maternity leave (along with Suriname, Papua New Guinea, and five South Pacific island nations).
On Here & Now @wbur.org @npr.org, ASA Member Karen Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social @uncpopcenter.bsky.social discussed politicians leveraging concern about low birth rates to justify policies that limit rights for women, non-Christians, people of color, & the LGBTQIA+ community.
The state of the pronatalist movement
The pronatalist movement, which claims to be rectifying what some of its members describe as the likely collapse of civilization due to population decline.
bit.ly
On Here & Now @wbur.org @npr.org, ASA Member Karen Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social @uncpopcenter.bsky.social discussed politicians leveraging concern about low birth rates to justify policies that limit rights for women, non-Christians, people of color, & the LGBTQIA+ community.
The state of the pronatalist movement
The pronatalist movement, which claims to be rectifying what some of its members describe as the likely collapse of civilization due to population decline.
bit.ly
This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”"

www.prb.org/resources/se...

I was happy to brief (with Jennifer Bouey) the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission staff last week on our recent introductory report on China's demographics and national security (broadly defined). Hopefully just the first in a series. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for Its Future?
China has one of the world's lowest fertility rates and is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. The impending reduction in labor force size and increase in old age dependenc...
www.rand.org

Reposted by Michael Pollard

I’m dressing as the age period cohort problem for Halloween

"Dreams of teeth falling out occur across cultures...Research suggests that 40% of the adult population will have had one such dream over the course of their lives."

I've had these kind of dreams forever, but now I also have them about my cat's teeth.

www.theguardian.com/wellness/202...
‘An unsolved mystery of science’: why do I dream about my teeth falling out?
Experts say such dreams of dental distress may relate to the processing of various emotions and experiences
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Michael Pollard

You've probably heard that US fertility is "below replacement level." But what does that actually mean???

Demographers @lesja.bsky.social & others explain the link between birth rates & population growth in this new @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. contemporaryfamilies.utah.edu/publications...

Reposted by Michael Pollard

Updating my projections: The last woman married in the USA will take place on Valentine's day in 2045.

A rocket scientist was a key figure in developing China's One-Child policy. So demography is definitely not rocket science.

What if the excluded years just go back to 1200 baud?

Gallup: in 2023 65% of Republicans said they drink alcohol – about the same as Democrats and independents. In 2025, that number has plunged a staggering 19 points to 46%. Democrats and independents also report drinking less, but each only by single digits. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Mocktails for Maga: why the US right is turning sober
Tucker Carlson says young people are more health-conscious than older generations. Does it explain why Republicans are drinking less?
www.theguardian.com

I worked on a project where we used LLMs to do sentiment coding on millions of Tweets.

And now for something completely different.
The first episode of Monty Python's Flying Circus featured a bicycle race of modernist painters who were painting while riding

October 5, 1969