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Rob Ford

@robfordmancs.bsky.social

50K followers 3.2K following 5.2K posts

Politics Professor, University of Manchester. Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland" My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/ https://www.robertford.net/

swingometer.substack.com

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · Jul 29

I have some good news for election nerds - "The British General Election of 2024" will be out this autumn, and if you're quick you can grab a 25% pre-order discount from Waterstone's by ordering your copy by 31st July, just enter code SUMMER25 www.waterstones.com/book/the-bri...

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Reposted by Rob Ford

Rosie Campbell @profrosiecamp.bsky.social · 18h

Was Gary Neville right- are middle-aged white men to blame for political polarisation? Adam Fleming asks me and @robfordmancs.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

AntiSocial - Angry middle-aged white men - BBC Sounds

Are they dividing the country?

www.bbc.co.uk

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 18h

LDs vs Reform is a logical two party system organised around identity and value divides, class and education divides, and Brexit. Labour being in government now (and Cons being tainted by recent toxic government) provide an opening.

Not the most likely outcome perhaps but far from impossible.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 18h

If there’s one lesson I take from the past decade or so it is that if a political shift has an underlying logic to it then it can happen even if it has no precedent. Cons in Red Wall. LDs in Blue Wall. This could be the next one.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 18h

Party organisation/presence matters but it isn’t the only thing that matters - if it was then Reform wouldn’t have won huge majorities on multiple councils where they had no previous presence or organisation in May.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 19h

Thought this was quite an interesting question. We asked which political party do people think is most "American" in it's style and Reform comes out on top by a country mile. Most likely to do with Trump, but also perhaps their more attention grabbing set pieces?

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 20h

As with so much in politics, this is more a tendency than an iron law ; )

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 20h

Yes, very much agree. An issue which, if memory serves, we flag and discuss in the polling chapter of BGE 2024... @drjennings.bsky.social

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 20h

Such a great book

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 20h

Oh of course (and feel free to use anything I post here!)

Reposted by Rob Ford

Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social · 21h

The speed and booze addicted dressed in black playing raw live shows in prisons with a voice like god almighty himself guy is “deeply uncool”? What

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 1d

Compared to Dylan and Springsteen, country-music legend Johnny Cash can seem deeply uncool. It took time for me to appreciate his profound, plainspoken strength, writes Jon Fasman.

Essay | Can We Finally Give Johnny Cash His Due?

Compared to Dylan and Springsteen, the country-music legend can seem deeply uncool. It took time for me to appreciate his profound, plainspoken strength.

on.wsj.com

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

Probably longer than it would take for electoral reform to make such reasoning redundant*

*Statement still true if electoral reform doesn't arrive for a long time.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

However, even in that scenario LDs at least likely won't have the resources to go chasing after such seats, particularly with no shortage of more winnable targets available.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

Yes, I think that's the likeliest outcome too but OTOH it would at least complicate matters if some/many of the constituencies that are Lab vs Con in 2024 Westminster terms are Ref vs LD in local elections (perhaps for more than one year)

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Ben Yong @bymyong.bsky.social · 22h

"Universities ... collectively announced more than 12,000 job cuts in the last year"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Thousands more university jobs cut as financial crisis deepens

University workers will vote on national strike action this month over a 1.4% pay offer made in the summer.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

For example:
County Durham - Lab and Con combined 61% of seats in 2021, Ref and LD combined 80% of seats in 2025

Devon - 77% Con/Lab 2021, 75% Ref/LD 2025
Kent - 85% Con/Lab 2021, 85% Ref/LD 2025
Gloucestershire - 62% Con/Lab 2021, 69% LD/Ref 2025 (Greens third with another 16%)

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

Don't think we can really infer vote flows from aggregate swings, and with so many parties in play (and shifts in turnout too) I don't think it is even easy to make an educated guess about them.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

Maybe not so lucid...

Wonder what figures would look like for the panels used by British pollsters?

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 23h

More than a third of Lucid (now Cint) respondents in 2019 were "professional" respondents according to a new article in @polanalysis.bsky.social , and that's the conservative estimate

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

Among the many possibilities for the next few years, the scenario of swapping one pair of dominant parties (Lab and Con) for another (Reform and LD) is intriguing, under-discussed and, in English elections, not entirely implausible either (several county councils made this leap in May)

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 23h

Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

RFM: 47 (+40)
LDM: 32 (+10)
CON: 13 (-15)
LAB: 12 (-30)
GRN: 11 (+3)
Ind: 5 (-4)
Local: 3 (-3)
SNP: 1 (-1)
PLC: 1 (=)

Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21h

Reform narrowly hold a ward where their previous councillor had to resign due to toxic racism allegations, assisted by a split on the left between Labour and the Greens (who have over 50% of the vote here between them).

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 23h

Lloyds & Corby Village (North Northamptonshire) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 38.5% (+2.1)
🌹 LAB: 32.4% (-11.8)
🌍 GRN: 18.9% (+9.7)
🔶 LDM: 5.8% (+1.5)
🌳 CON: 4.4% (-1.5)

Reform HOLD.
Changes w/ 2025.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 22h

A ward that has gone from 85% combined Con and Lab vote, no Reform or Greens standing to 69% Reform and Green vote, with 24% for Con and Lab combined.

Volatile times...

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 23h

Bretforton & Offenham (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 43.5% (New)
🌍 GRN: 25.9% (New)
🌳 CON: 20.1% (-35.4)
🌹 LAB: 4.0% (-25.9)
🔶 LDM: 3.8% (-10.8)
🙋 Ind: 1.5% (New)
🙋 Ind: 1.2% (New)

Reform GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2023.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1d

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The Nerve @thenerve.news · 1d

‘It feels good – and quite strange – to think I could vote for what I believe in…’

@natashawalter.bsky.social reports on why young women are flocking to @greenparty.org.uk, won over by @zackpolanski.bsky.social’s stance on topics such as Palestine, refugee rights and economic injustice 🌱

Photo of Zack Polanski. Text: Natasha Walter: why young women are flocking to the Greens

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting and troubling report/thread here on vulnerability of scientific bodies to politicisation, something the public do not want and is not in there interest but could happen nonetheless if politicians with selective or hostile views on science and evidence were in charge

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 1d

🧵🚨

The UK’s independent scientific bodies are highly vulnerable to politicisation - over the past 5 months I've been working with @martinmckee.bsky.social to map out their vulnerabilities and it's not good news.

Today our report is published!
www.ucl.ac.uk/policy-lab/n...

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UK’s arm’s length public bodies are highly vulnerable to politicisation

Seven in ten Britons say it is important for top scientific institutions to be independent in exclusive new polling.

www.ucl.ac.uk

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 2d

I’m gonna defend Liz Truss, because I like to be blocked by two or so people every day, and say that her plans were 100 times more reasonable than these, in that she thought she would have enough time to bounce Tory MPs into backing spending cuts. Much less daft than anything Badenoch has said.

Chairman Moët @chairmanmoet.bsky.social · 2d

There's a touch of the Liz Truss about Kemi Badenoch. Both in the tax cut paid for by fantasy figures and also a belief there's This One Special Trick The British State Doesn't Want You To Know About! that will somehow solve everything.
Be rude to some civil servants and the UK's problems vanish!

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 2d

One reason Tories lost in 2024 was the awful state of the NHS. They badly need to fess up & say how they plan not to f*ck it up next time.

All we got yesterday:

"In the NHS, industrial action has kept waiting lists high for far too long. Enough is enough. We will ban doctors from going on strike."

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