Adam Drummond
@adamdrummond.bsky.social
Head of Quant Research at Public First. Professional collector of other people's opinions
Yes but mainly because they're going to the Greens because "Labour isn't left wing enough"
Nine of the ten constituencies most hit by the 'mansion tax' are held by Labour MPs, via Bradshaw Advisory
As I say on Coffee House Shots, the London borough elections next year could be interesting
As I say on Coffee House Shots, the London borough elections next year could be interesting
November 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Yes but mainly because they're going to the Greens because "Labour isn't left wing enough"
Nothing but respect if Reeves says "shall we all just have the hour back if everyone's read it?"
November 26, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Nothing but respect if Reeves says "shall we all just have the hour back if everyone's read it?"
US House of Cards was never exactly great but the final season (hastily rewritten after the Kevin Spacey news) is possibly the worst bit of scripted drama I've ever seen
while I am posting trivia, which TV show do you think showed the sharpest fall in quality from first to last seasons? I ask because the answer is obviously The Morning Show, the last series of which was garbage
November 25, 2025 at 2:27 PM
US House of Cards was never exactly great but the final season (hastily rewritten after the Kevin Spacey news) is possibly the worst bit of scripted drama I've ever seen
Reposted by Adam Drummond
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Strong agree. Also: "Rogue One is fine" and "Rogue One is the best Star Wars film made in my lifetime" are both true
The synthesis remains that “Rogue One is a mess and not a great movie” and “Rogue One is a very impressive rescue job on what should have been a disaster” are both true IMV
rogue one is bad folks. i have believed this since i saw it in theaters and no subsequent rewatch has changed my mind. basically a chop job until the final sequence, which is good (for star wars)
November 24, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Strong agree. Also: "Rogue One is fine" and "Rogue One is the best Star Wars film made in my lifetime" are both true
I finally counted it all up last year and I think for like 75-80% of budget measures we polled there was a majority saying "good idea". Lists were always taken from the BBC News summary article. There's a reason those were the things they announced!
I fucking hate budget polling.
Might as well poll if everyone wants to eat pies, kebabs and cakes all the time and exclude the consequences of possible heart attack.
Might as well poll if everyone wants to eat pies, kebabs and cakes all the time and exclude the consequences of possible heart attack.
With Rachel Reeves reportedly set to apply a new tax on tuition fees paid by overseas students, most Britons support such a move at the previously mooted level of 6%
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
November 24, 2025 at 7:05 PM
I finally counted it all up last year and I think for like 75-80% of budget measures we polled there was a majority saying "good idea". Lists were always taken from the BBC News summary article. There's a reason those were the things they announced!
Reposted by Adam Drummond
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Taps the "lads you're on 17% without breaking the pledge, could it really be worse?" sign
This government's relentless focus on growth has got out of hand.
i: Reeves to unveil £600m raid on foreign student
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday
November 23, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Taps the "lads you're on 17% without breaking the pledge, could it really be worse?" sign
Reposted by Adam Drummond
Great piece by Peter Kellner, in which he gives us what will now be a must-use example of how not to report polls...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
How Whitehall suppressed the truth about the doctors strike
The Times was fed a front-page story that misled its readers
kellnerp.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Great piece by Peter Kellner, in which he gives us what will now be a must-use example of how not to report polls...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
Reposted by Adam Drummond
Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers
Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers
www.politicshome.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
This is one of those pieces that has stuck in my mind ever since I read it
We are late to this piece by @j-amesmarriott.bsky.social. It is brilliant, and sobering. We have a fight on our hands, booksellers…
jmarriott.substack.com/p/the-dawn-o...
jmarriott.substack.com/p/the-dawn-o...
The dawn of the post-literate society
And the end of civilisation
jmarriott.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:45 PM
This is one of those pieces that has stuck in my mind ever since I read it
Reposted by Adam Drummond
It's worth noting that there's already substantial heterogeneity in the polling industry in terms if capacity and capability to mitigate the threat of AI to online surveys.
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
November 18, 2025 at 10:00 PM
It's worth noting that there's already substantial heterogeneity in the polling industry in terms if capacity and capability to mitigate the threat of AI to online surveys.
Reposted by Adam Drummond
ONS is so bad. (This is about specifically British nationals.) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
November 18, 2025 at 11:26 AM
ONS is so bad. (This is about specifically British nationals.) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Reposted by Adam Drummond
Not everything is a metaphor (in the same way that most things aren't a dead cat strategy).
But parliament is falling down and the chronic delays to its rebuild isn't *unrelated* to a political class seemingly unable or unwilling to address long-term challenges.
My newsletter, out now.
But parliament is falling down and the chronic delays to its rebuild isn't *unrelated* to a political class seemingly unable or unwilling to address long-term challenges.
My newsletter, out now.
Parliament is falling down
A metaphor in search of a nation
www.linestotake.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Not everything is a metaphor (in the same way that most things aren't a dead cat strategy).
But parliament is falling down and the chronic delays to its rebuild isn't *unrelated* to a political class seemingly unable or unwilling to address long-term challenges.
My newsletter, out now.
But parliament is falling down and the chronic delays to its rebuild isn't *unrelated* to a political class seemingly unable or unwilling to address long-term challenges.
My newsletter, out now.
Apropos of nothing but I think all major parties should commit to leadership elections that happen while they're in government being restricted to MPs only, not a vote of the party membership.
November 14, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Apropos of nothing but I think all major parties should commit to leadership elections that happen while they're in government being restricted to MPs only, not a vote of the party membership.
Voters *already* think Labour have broken their tax promises
So much of UK politics seems as a weird tangled misreading of public opinion.
Shall we raise tax? Voters won’t like it. But need to deliver for voters and tax rises necessary to for that. Voters need to see change. But cant break promise, because voters. But is a U-turn even worse, because voters?
Shall we raise tax? Voters won’t like it. But need to deliver for voters and tax rises necessary to for that. Voters need to see change. But cant break promise, because voters. But is a U-turn even worse, because voters?
November 14, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Voters *already* think Labour have broken their tax promises
Reposted by Adam Drummond
‘Andrew Tate is dead’: inside the minds of 16-year-olds
A yearlong study of 16-year-olds across England has provided surprising insights on the passions and politics of the ‘lost generation’
✍️ Peter Hyman and Shuab Gamote
https://bit.ly/49ICNNe
A yearlong study of 16-year-olds across England has provided surprising insights on the passions and politics of the ‘lost generation’
✍️ Peter Hyman and Shuab Gamote
https://bit.ly/49ICNNe
‘Andrew Tate is dead’: inside the minds of 16-year-olds | The Observer
bit.ly
November 9, 2025 at 1:06 PM
‘Andrew Tate is dead’: inside the minds of 16-year-olds
A yearlong study of 16-year-olds across England has provided surprising insights on the passions and politics of the ‘lost generation’
✍️ Peter Hyman and Shuab Gamote
https://bit.ly/49ICNNe
A yearlong study of 16-year-olds across England has provided surprising insights on the passions and politics of the ‘lost generation’
✍️ Peter Hyman and Shuab Gamote
https://bit.ly/49ICNNe
I'm genuinely astonished that at some point David didn't vote for Claudia
November 6, 2025 at 10:07 PM
I'm genuinely astonished that at some point David didn't vote for Claudia
Every time you think they've got it they just keep running face first into a wall #celebritytraitors
November 6, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Every time you think they've got it they just keep running face first into a wall #celebritytraitors
Reposted by Adam Drummond
Let's just take a moment to reflect on the self-sacrifice and hope this person embodies - not the evil, hateful monsters thirsting for violence.
November 2, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Let's just take a moment to reflect on the self-sacrifice and hope this person embodies - not the evil, hateful monsters thirsting for violence.
A movie you've seen more than 7 times, as a GIF.
November 1, 2025 at 7:48 PM
A movie you've seen more than 7 times, as a GIF.
The Economist is such a double edged sword as a subscription. Lots of brilliant journalists that are always worth reading but then really dumb trolling like this
There is a legal case for a third term—but it is strewn with obstacles
Trump 2028
There is a legal case for a third term—but it is strewn with obstacles
econ.st
October 30, 2025 at 9:10 PM
The Economist is such a double edged sword as a subscription. Lots of brilliant journalists that are always worth reading but then really dumb trolling like this