Aditya Dasgupta
@adasgupta.bsky.social
Read, teach and write about comparative politics, political economy, and social science at UC-Merced: https://aditya-dasgupta.com
Pinned
Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Everyone talks about the "credibility revolution", but I think one of the most valuable shifts in econ over the last decade has been the rise of rigorous descriptive historical work like this in top journals:
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006,” by Lyons (@ronanlyons), Shertzer (@econhist-allday), Gray (@econhistoryorbust), and Agorastos: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006*
Abstract. We construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for American cities over the 20th century using 2.7 million newspaper real
doi.org
January 18, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Everyone talks about the "credibility revolution", but I think one of the most valuable shifts in econ over the last decade has been the rise of rigorous descriptive historical work like this in top journals:
nobel peace prize never fails
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado met President Donald Trump at the White House as part of her push for greater influence in the wake of Nicolas Maduro’s ouster
Venezuela’s Machado Gives Trump Her Nobel in Bid for His Favor
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado presented Donald Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize medal in a meeting Thursday, a bid to gain his favor as the US determines her country’s future and move past an episode that rankled the president.
bloom.bg
January 16, 2026 at 2:29 AM
nobel peace prize never fails
does seem like an empirical regularity
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
January 14, 2026 at 4:25 PM
does seem like an empirical regularity
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
claude code is fucking insane
i know literally NOTHING about Hegel. ZERO. and it just built me a complete system of German idealism
i know literally NOTHING about Hegel. ZERO. and it just built me a complete system of German idealism
January 5, 2026 at 6:49 PM
claude code is fucking insane
i know literally NOTHING about Hegel. ZERO. and it just built me a complete system of German idealism
i know literally NOTHING about Hegel. ZERO. and it just built me a complete system of German idealism
very cool
Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? In a new @apsrjournal.bsky.social article, @victorgayeco.bsky.social and I show that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution
👉 Article: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
🧵1/X
👉 Article: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
🧵1/X
January 5, 2026 at 8:48 PM
very cool
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Social science has been solved: Write 1600 lines of instructions to Claude Code to generate a publishable paper based exclusively on silicon samples.
Econ Nobel Prize here I come.
Econ Nobel Prize here I come.
I've been trying so hard not to scream "I told you so" about the "AI can write social science papers" discourse over on Twitter. But my will is breaking.
January 5, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Social science has been solved: Write 1600 lines of instructions to Claude Code to generate a publishable paper based exclusively on silicon samples.
Econ Nobel Prize here I come.
Econ Nobel Prize here I come.
unbearable stupidity
January 3, 2026 at 4:14 PM
unbearable stupidity
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution.
In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)
👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
🧵1/6
In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)
👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
🧵1/6
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution.
In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)
👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
🧵1/6
In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)
👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
🧵1/6
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
December 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
had a chance to visit the Indian agricultural research institute (IARI) fields yesterday — where many of the crops grown in India are/were developed, including the varieties responsible for the green revolution
December 18, 2025 at 3:16 AM
had a chance to visit the Indian agricultural research institute (IARI) fields yesterday — where many of the crops grown in India are/were developed, including the varieties responsible for the green revolution
India’s rural employment guarantee program, one of the world’s biggest safety nets — and possibly the most studied program in the history of development economics? — is at serious risk of being repealed: indianexpress.com/article/indi...
VB-G RAM G BILL INTRODUCED IN LOK SABHA: Opp protests dropping Gandhi’s name; welfare of poor our priority, says Govt
Opp flags fiscal burden on states; Bill ensures all-round progress: Chouhan
indianexpress.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:39 AM
India’s rural employment guarantee program, one of the world’s biggest safety nets — and possibly the most studied program in the history of development economics? — is at serious risk of being repealed: indianexpress.com/article/indi...
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
December 16, 2025 at 10:53 AM
📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
This does NOT happen everyday.
THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
Fascinating. Linking two other important works on US regional culture: books.google.co.in/books?hl=en&... (Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America) and onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (Frontier culture: The roots and persistence of “rugged individualism” in the United States)
December 16, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Fascinating. Linking two other important works on US regional culture: books.google.co.in/books?hl=en&... (Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America) and onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (Frontier culture: The roots and persistence of “rugged individualism” in the United States)
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Excited to post the latest version of my JMP: The female labor supply constraints of spousal jealousy bit.ly/4nn9apn
I use two field experiments to study the role of spousal jealousy in constraining married women’s employment. More below 👇:
I use two field experiments to study the role of spousal jealousy in constraining married women’s employment. More below 👇:
December 3, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Excited to post the latest version of my JMP: The female labor supply constraints of spousal jealousy bit.ly/4nn9apn
I use two field experiments to study the role of spousal jealousy in constraining married women’s employment. More below 👇:
I use two field experiments to study the role of spousal jealousy in constraining married women’s employment. More below 👇:
I agree with this — survey experiments represent a different intellectual lineage from usage of natural experiments to overcome real-world endogeneity (credibility revolution). That said, I think collective confusion that randomization=credible has given survey experiments too much epistemic status
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 3, 2025 at 6:17 PM
I agree with this — survey experiments represent a different intellectual lineage from usage of natural experiments to overcome real-world endogeneity (credibility revolution). That said, I think collective confusion that randomization=credible has given survey experiments too much epistemic status
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
> Between 1995 and 2021 (our sample period), there were a total of 47 individuals who have been a congressional leader; 20 of whom made stock trades both before and after ascension to leadership.
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts
www.nber.org/papers/w34524
via @florianederer.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w34524
via @florianederer.bsky.social
December 3, 2025 at 4:35 PM
> Between 1995 and 2021 (our sample period), there were a total of 47 individuals who have been a congressional leader; 20 of whom made stock trades both before and after ascension to leadership.
This is about to radicalize me against the credibility revolution
December 2, 2025 at 11:06 PM
This is about to radicalize me against the credibility revolution
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
December 2, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
the case for slower, better/more careful research papers in poli sci gets another data point in its favor
December 1, 2025 at 5:18 PM
the case for slower, better/more careful research papers in poli sci gets another data point in its favor
incredible that we can turn correcting coding errors into litigation about the process in which we are allowed to transmit this information
Very unprofessional of the APSR to publish a response to a published article without publishing the original authors' reaction. "They will be published in the same issue." So we see them together when we get our hardcopy in the mail and flip through it on a Sunday afternoon?
A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published.
Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.
osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.
osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
November 29, 2025 at 10:24 PM
incredible that we can turn correcting coding errors into litigation about the process in which we are allowed to transmit this information
Important public good (replications are much needed to help keep the whole enterprise honest but under-supplied)
Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR).
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
November 28, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Important public good (replications are much needed to help keep the whole enterprise honest but under-supplied)
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
💡 How does moving to opportunity reshape political behavior?
🗞️ In our new BJPolS paper, @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that residential relocations that increase access to opportunity foster political integration and shift political preferences to the left.
👉 tinyurl.com/46utjj65
🗞️ In our new BJPolS paper, @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that residential relocations that increase access to opportunity foster political integration and shift political preferences to the left.
👉 tinyurl.com/46utjj65
Seeking Opportunity in the Knowledge Economy: Moving Places, Moving Politics? | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Seeking Opportunity in the Knowledge Economy: Moving Places, Moving Politics? - Volume 55
tinyurl.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:04 AM
💡 How does moving to opportunity reshape political behavior?
🗞️ In our new BJPolS paper, @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that residential relocations that increase access to opportunity foster political integration and shift political preferences to the left.
👉 tinyurl.com/46utjj65
🗞️ In our new BJPolS paper, @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that residential relocations that increase access to opportunity foster political integration and shift political preferences to the left.
👉 tinyurl.com/46utjj65
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Many have asked for the LLM Survey paper. The release was bungled a bit by PNAS, but it is live now: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
The potential existential threat of large language models to online survey research | PNAS
The advancement of large language models poses a severe, potentially existential threat
to online survey research, a fundamental tool for data coll...
www.pnas.org
November 20, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Many have asked for the LLM Survey paper. The release was bungled a bit by PNAS, but it is live now: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Aditya Dasgupta
Ireland winning goal and end of match with Irish commentary
November 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Ireland winning goal and end of match with Irish commentary
Happy to learn I received the Michael Wallerstein prize in political economy for this article on the political consequences of technological change in agriculture in the US: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains - Volume 119 Issue 1
www.cambridge.org
November 16, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Happy to learn I received the Michael Wallerstein prize in political economy for this article on the political consequences of technological change in agriculture in the US: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...