Cyrus Samii
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cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii
@cdsamii.bsky.social
4.2K followers 1.5K following 450 posts

NYU Politics prof. Methods to inform policy. Governance, conflict, institutions. cyrussamii.com

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Mathematics 24%
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cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 7d
New paper in first view @thejop.bsky.social w/ Burde, Middleton, and Rahnama

We show the promise of a community governance strategy to sustain schools in remote Afghan communities after NGO withdrawal.

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
Can Communities Take Charge? Testing Community-Based Governance to Sustain Schools in War-Affected Afghanistan | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu

Reposted by David Darmofal

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 17h
Reporting the treated group mean along with DID estimates of the ATT cyrussamii.com?p=4151
Reporting the treated group mean along with DID estimates of the ATT – Cyrus Samii
cyrussamii.com

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 7d
The study uses an RCT "equivalency trial" approach, motivated by methodological and ethical concerns.

The study took place before the Taliban return to rule, but we think is relevant in the current context and in other crisis-affected settings.

Reposted by Cyrus Samii, Tore Ellingsen, Philipp Maier

afinetheorem.bsky.social
Kevin A. Bryan @afinetheorem.bsky.social · Oct 14
What a great day: legends of innovation economics Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt win the Nobel. Joel was a PhD advisor of mine, so need a full article! Included: good & bad explanations of the Indus Rev, Aghion's charisma, influence of Jon Hughes, French fashion houses: kevinbryanecon.com/mokyraghionh...
A Nobel for Innovation: Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt
kevinbryanecon.com

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Oct 10
Congrats to UZH.
One can read in terms of Hirschman’s Exit/Voice/Loyalty framework: the pull of sentimentality toward MIT is weak when there is abundant work to be done on global poverty and the broader home
environment is so bleak.
florianscheuer.bsky.social Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · Oct 10
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7

Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde , and 51 more

florianscheuer.bsky.social
Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · Oct 10
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 30
👀 (given the remarkable robustness of BART as a static prediction method)
statme-bot.bsky.social arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · Sep 30
Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu: Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24634

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

statme-bot.bsky.social
arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · Sep 30
Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu: Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24634

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 29
Very well said. Re (2), a version of this is in the Korn and Graubard "Analysis of Health Surveys" textbook that explains how, under misspecification (and all models are somewhat misspecified), the weighted (population) fit is what we want rather than the sample fit.

Reposted by Cyrus Samii, David Darmofal

polanalysis.bsky.social
Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · Sep 23
Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social‬ present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 12
Agreed — nice round up of very well informed perspectives. I found Raleigh’s analysis especially convincing but all perspectives were thought provoking.

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

jonmladd.bsky.social
Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · Sep 12
Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.
10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America
Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?
www.politico.com

Reposted by Caroline Krafft, Cyrus Samii

olihanney.bsky.social
Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · Sep 2
Back to teaching or studying economics at university this September?

@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2
Skepticism toward vax and modern medicine is fairly widespread publicly as I’ve seen, and is tied up with antipathy toward “experts” (“do your own research” a la Aaron Rodgers), which universities embody. There is the woke issue sure, but there is also antipathy toward expertise to contend with.

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2
Let’s take the area where there has been the most heat: vaccinations. The MRNA vax researcher doesn’t need to change what they do. It’s a problem of educating the public that this is useful stuff. The question is how to do that effectively.

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2
Seems that a field that has taken an especially large hit in the current context is biomedical sciences, and this because, it seems, MAGA rejected the expert guidance on COVID. These rules leave many unanswered questions for that field, no?

Reposted by Stephen P. Jenkins, Steven N. Durlauf, Dave O’Brien , and 25 more

pengzell.bsky.social
Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · Sep 1
WE ARE HIRING! 2 Lecturers in Quantitative Social Science. Want a friendly interdisciplinary department in one of the world's most vibrant cities? This just might be for you.

Apply by: 10 Oct

www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 30
I agree with comments here emphasizing Trump’s vengeance on the “medical establishment” after feeling that it conspired during COVID to unseat him. Would be nice if nurses and doctors generated a groundswell of alarm in their personal social networks about the dangers.

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

klauspforr.bsky.social
Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.bsky.social · Aug 29
Interesting paper on design-based uncertainty for quasi-experiments
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments
Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This article develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzin...
www.tandfonline.com

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 28
Montiel Olea has a few really nice papers on design from a decision theoretic perspective.

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 28
Anna Wilke and I have a paper (soon on Arxiv) that I can send on design diversification from minmax regret perspective. We were inspired by Manski and papers on experimental design like Banerjee et al. and Azevedo et al.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
www.journals.uchicago.edu

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 21
Isn't this "generalization"?

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 18
(The tortured fit of a global polynomial)

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 16
For your weekend read I highly recommend this article on the Tampa Bay Rays and the thankless pursuit of excellence:

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/m...
Is He Baseball’s Most Brilliant Owner, or a Failure?
www.nytimes.com

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 16
👀
paperposterbot.bsky.social ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Aug 15
link 📈🤖
A General Design-Based Framework and Estimator for Randomized Experiments (Harshaw, S\"avje, Wang) We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcom

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

paperposterbot.bsky.social
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Aug 15
link 📈🤖
A General Design-Based Framework and Estimator for Randomized Experiments (Harshaw, S\"avje, Wang) We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcom

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10
*cited (not cute)

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10
We had a wee contribution on this for randomized experiments (cute by Abadie et al.). The idea extends by analogy to observational studies: cyrussamii.com/wp-content/u...
cyrussamii.com

cdsamii.bsky.social
Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10
One observes only a sample of the potential outcomes. Sampling error based standard errors provide for conservative inference for such uncertainty. Surprisingly, this was not widely known until fairly recently. (Cf the Abadie et al paper and refs therein.)

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

nber.org
NBER @nber.org · Mar 30
Using new tools in legal language processing to show workers value the legal rights provided by collective bargaining agreements, from Benjamin W. Arold, Elliott Ash, W. Bentley MacLeod, and Suresh Naidu https://www.nber.org/papers/w33605