Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
@ahecon.bsky.social
Economist @EconomicPolicy. Frmr @PERIatUMass
@JECDems @Policy_Dialogue @CAPeconomy @rooseveltinst. #econsky #china #trade #industrialpolicy #manufacturing. 天下大乱，形势大好。
@JECDems @Policy_Dialogue @CAPeconomy @rooseveltinst. #econsky #china #trade #industrialpolicy #manufacturing. 天下大乱，形势大好。
Pinned
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
What would you do for a Klondike Bar?
January 21, 2026 at 12:24 AM
What would you do for a Klondike Bar?
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
I admit I'm a little confused as to why a consensus seems to have formed that SCOTUS will strike down Trump's obviousl illegal tariffs. That would be correct on the law, sure, but what does that have to do with anything? They'll strike it down if they feel that it saves Trump from himself (possible)
January 20, 2026 at 10:44 PM
I admit I'm a little confused as to why a consensus seems to have formed that SCOTUS will strike down Trump's obviousl illegal tariffs. That would be correct on the law, sure, but what does that have to do with anything? They'll strike it down if they feel that it saves Trump from himself (possible)
I’m old enough to remember when America had thoughtful, articulate leaders like this that actually cared to understand how the world works.
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 20, 2026 at 6:05 PM
I’m old enough to remember when America had thoughtful, articulate leaders like this that actually cared to understand how the world works.
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
Forgot to mention the stocks...Trump touts a banner year for US w/ S&P500 +16%, largely driven by AI speculation.
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
January 20, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Forgot to mention the stocks...Trump touts a banner year for US w/ S&P500 +16%, largely driven by AI speculation.
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
So, in this analogy, Trump and his administration are the new Third Reich.
Gorka: "Read a little bit of history. What happened when another nation tried to encroach on Greenland and in fact invaded Denmark? The Third Reich"
January 20, 2026 at 5:49 PM
So, in this analogy, Trump and his administration are the new Third Reich.
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
Increased deportations led to more crimes against Hispanics but fewer reports to the police
New research on how immigration enforcement undermines public safety and increases vulnerability, from Gonçalves Jácome Weisburst
New research on how immigration enforcement undermines public safety and increases vulnerability, from Gonçalves Jácome Weisburst
January 20, 2026 at 5:25 PM
Increased deportations led to more crimes against Hispanics but fewer reports to the police
New research on how immigration enforcement undermines public safety and increases vulnerability, from Gonçalves Jácome Weisburst
New research on how immigration enforcement undermines public safety and increases vulnerability, from Gonçalves Jácome Weisburst
Retiring from the Senate and no longer needing political cover, Tillis is still craven and spineless.
Tillis: "To be clear -- I'm not critical of the president. I'm critical of the bad advice he's getting on Greenland."
January 20, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Retiring from the Senate and no longer needing political cover, Tillis is still craven and spineless.
Forgot to mention the stocks...Trump touts a banner year for US w/ S&P500 +16%, largely driven by AI speculation.
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
January 20, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Forgot to mention the stocks...Trump touts a banner year for US w/ S&P500 +16%, largely driven by AI speculation.
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
But the rest of the world is vastly outperforming US:
Germany: +19%
FTSE: +20%
Shanghai-Shenzhen: +27%
Canada: +32%
Hang Seng: +35%
Nikkei: +36%
Mexico: +36%
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...Speaker Johnson, Leader Thune, and the rest of the MAGA-led Congress could stop this anytime. But they won’t because they only care about keeping their own positions of power by staying in Trump’s good graces. They don’t care about what is happening to us or the rest of the world. /END
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...Speaker Johnson, Leader Thune, and the rest of the MAGA-led Congress could stop this anytime. But they won’t because they only care about keeping their own positions of power by staying in Trump’s good graces. They don’t care about what is happening to us or the rest of the world. /END
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
... Tariffs are his favorite policy tool—not because they work for the economy, but because they work for him and his cronies, including to destroy an 80-year strategic alliance with Europe, the backbone of the global security and economic order...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
... Tariffs are his favorite policy tool—not because they work for the economy, but because they work for him and his cronies, including to destroy an 80-year strategic alliance with Europe, the backbone of the global security and economic order...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...We’re all waiting to hear from SCOTUS about the IEEPA tariffs, but whatever they decide this will not be the end of Trump’s disastrous approach to trade and manufacturing. He will invoke other authorities to impose the same tariffs and more. The administration has already promised this...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...We’re all waiting to hear from SCOTUS about the IEEPA tariffs, but whatever they decide this will not be the end of Trump’s disastrous approach to trade and manufacturing. He will invoke other authorities to impose the same tariffs and more. The administration has already promised this...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...Tariffs are 💯 a legitimate policy tool if used correctly: targeted, limited, and combined with smart investments in human, technology, and physical capital to support critical industries, promote enviro and labor standards, and fight illegal trade practices. Trump is doing none of these things...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...Tariffs are 💯 a legitimate policy tool if used correctly: targeted, limited, and combined with smart investments in human, technology, and physical capital to support critical industries, promote enviro and labor standards, and fight illegal trade practices. Trump is doing none of these things...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...Consumer prices kept going up, up, up—2.6% yoy—but prices of imported goods remained flat. Again, no, foreigners DID NOT pay for Trump’s tariffs. Your family and your employers paid the price...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...Consumer prices kept going up, up, up—2.6% yoy—but prices of imported goods remained flat. Again, no, foreigners DID NOT pay for Trump’s tariffs. Your family and your employers paid the price...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...Even if—and that's a big IF—the policy manages to bring home manufacturing jobs, Trump’s attacks on unions and workers mean they won’t be good jobs of the past. What’s the point of reindustrializing if those workers are going to earn minimum wage with no benefits?...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...Even if—and that's a big IF—the policy manages to bring home manufacturing jobs, Trump’s attacks on unions and workers mean they won’t be good jobs of the past. What’s the point of reindustrializing if those workers are going to earn minimum wage with no benefits?...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...We lost 63k manufacturing jobs. Investment building manufacturing facilities was down 5%. Manufacturing output basically flat-lined. Surveys of the expectations for future manufacturing activity registered the worst outlook on record...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...We lost 63k manufacturing jobs. Investment building manufacturing facilities was down 5%. Manufacturing output basically flat-lined. Surveys of the expectations for future manufacturing activity registered the worst outlook on record...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
...Imports were up $220b while the trade deficit worsened by $120b. And this happened while the US$ fell 6% in value, which *should* shrink imports. Yes, we collected some tariff revenues, of which US businesses and households—not foreigners—paid 94%… www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institute
www.kielinstitut.de
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
...Imports were up $220b while the trade deficit worsened by $120b. And this happened while the US$ fell 6% in value, which *should* shrink imports. Yes, we collected some tariff revenues, of which US businesses and households—not foreigners—paid 94%… www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 AM
👀🧵Today marks one year of Trump’s radical trade policies that are reshaping the world order—and not in a good way. There's much to criticize in our trading system (and I often do). Trump is fixing none of the problems. After 1 year we’re farther from the solutions and we’re all paying the price...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
I went to Minneapolis last week. What I saw was horrifying and inspiring in equal measure. Gift link to my latest column: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/o...
Opinion | In Minneapolis, I Glimpsed a Civil War
www.nytimes.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:56 PM
I went to Minneapolis last week. What I saw was horrifying and inspiring in equal measure. Gift link to my latest column: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/o...
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
1/ New Kiel Institute study on 2025 tariffs. The headline finding won't shock anyone who studied 2018-19 tariffs: near-complete pass-through to US importers. Foreign exporters absorbed ~4% of burden; Americans paid ~96%.
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institute
www.kielinstitut.de
January 19, 2026 at 11:09 PM
1/ New Kiel Institute study on 2025 tariffs. The headline finding won't shock anyone who studied 2018-19 tariffs: near-complete pass-through to US importers. Foreign exporters absorbed ~4% of burden; Americans paid ~96%.
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
Can't blame a guy for trying?
I missed this on Saturday. Greer urged the EU to “silo” the Greenland tariffs from the broader trade relationship. What are these people smoking?
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
US official says EU should consider separating Greenland tariff issue from US trade deal
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Saturday it is up to Europe to decide whether it wants to raise new tariff threats from President Donald Trump against some European countries over Gre...
www.reuters.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:56 AM
Can't blame a guy for trying?
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
I do not like how close POTUS is getting to declaring war against Minnesotans & ordering the U.S. Army to coerce us.
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
January 20, 2026 at 12:04 AM
I do not like how close POTUS is getting to declaring war against Minnesotans & ordering the U.S. Army to coerce us.
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
We are standing up peacefully.
The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this.
What can u do to advance that?
I no longer feel obligated to eat broccoli because my parents didn't feed me chocolate ice cream for breakfast.
January 19, 2026 at 10:35 PM
I no longer feel obligated to eat broccoli because my parents didn't feed me chocolate ice cream for breakfast.
Remember, very few people live in those teal areas.
here's a little treat for everyone else who has insomnia right now so is vibe coding to sleep projects.gelliottmorris.com/trump-approv...
January 19, 2026 at 1:35 AM
Remember, very few people live in those teal areas.
Reposted by Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D.
It's not just the St. Paul Doubletree.
The Intercontinental in downtown St Paul is also shutting for now.
According to the Pioneer Press, they're both operated by an indigenous tribe, the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe.
FYI, ICE has been arresting Native Americans.
www.twincities.com/2026/01/18/h...
The Intercontinental in downtown St Paul is also shutting for now.
According to the Pioneer Press, they're both operated by an indigenous tribe, the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe.
FYI, ICE has been arresting Native Americans.
www.twincities.com/2026/01/18/h...
January 19, 2026 at 12:58 AM
It's not just the St. Paul Doubletree.
The Intercontinental in downtown St Paul is also shutting for now.
According to the Pioneer Press, they're both operated by an indigenous tribe, the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe.
FYI, ICE has been arresting Native Americans.
www.twincities.com/2026/01/18/h...
The Intercontinental in downtown St Paul is also shutting for now.
According to the Pioneer Press, they're both operated by an indigenous tribe, the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe.
FYI, ICE has been arresting Native Americans.
www.twincities.com/2026/01/18/h...