Christian Julliard
@christianjulliard.net
I think, read, write, teach (and take photos). Associate Professor @LSEFinance. I study the interaction between financial markets and the macroeconomy.
https://christianjulliard.net
https://christianjulliard.net
Pinned
Christian Julliard
@christianjulliard.net
· Jun 17
🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova
& Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance
We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption.
Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing
🧵👇 1/n
& Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance
We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption.
Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing
🧵👇 1/n
Reposted by Christian Julliard
@econmsk.bsky.social and Levine's new WP on Fertility in high-income countries has two remarkable graphs
www.nber.org/papers/w3398...
The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
www.nber.org/papers/w3398...
The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
July 9, 2025 at 12:05 PM
@econmsk.bsky.social and Levine's new WP on Fertility in high-income countries has two remarkable graphs
www.nber.org/papers/w3398...
The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
www.nber.org/papers/w3398...
The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
A must read. 20 years of USAID avoided an estimated 91 million preventable deaths worldwide.
The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.
The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.
The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality
across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates
show that, unless the a...
www.thelancet.com
July 1, 2025 at 1:55 PM
A must read. 20 years of USAID avoided an estimated 91 million preventable deaths worldwide.
The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.
The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.
The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
My flight to Chicago landed in Milwaukee, leaving me stranded and miss my connection to London. A learning experience: consumer protection in US v EU is (dark) night v day.
June 26, 2025 at 12:37 AM
My flight to Chicago landed in Milwaukee, leaving me stranded and miss my connection to London. A learning experience: consumer protection in US v EU is (dark) night v day.
🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova
& Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance
We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption.
Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing
🧵👇 1/n
& Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance
We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption.
Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing
🧵👇 1/n
June 17, 2025 at 10:04 PM
🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova
& Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance
We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption.
Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing
🧵👇 1/n
& Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance
We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption.
Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing
🧵👇 1/n
Reposted by Christian Julliard
New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern:
AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
What AEI Gets Wrong about SNAP Work Requirements
They cited my research, so let me respond!
donmoynihan.substack.com
May 30, 2025 at 12:33 PM
New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern:
AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
Reposted by Christian Julliard
BREAKING: Judge McFadden has *granted * the AP’s injunction against the White House’s ban on access to the Oval Office and East Room.
April 8, 2025 at 8:46 PM
BREAKING: Judge McFadden has *granted * the AP’s injunction against the White House’s ban on access to the Oval Office and East Room.
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Google searches for "filing for unemployment":
1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
April 8, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Google searches for "filing for unemployment":
1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
(Marketing with?) fear of a run
April 3, 2025 at 4:25 PM
(Marketing with?) fear of a run
If I had not cancelled already my monthly donation to @theguardian.com because of the economic illiteracy of their editorial team, this attack on central bank independence would have been the last straw
March 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
If I had not cancelled already my monthly donation to @theguardian.com because of the economic illiteracy of their editorial team, this attack on central bank independence would have been the last straw
We should go after all the economists stating “Let $(\Omega , \mathcal{F}, P)$ denote ….” without ever citing Kolmogorov
Possibly the dumbest of the many dumb plagiarism claims
nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...
nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...
March 30, 2025 at 11:30 AM
We should go after all the economists stating “Let $(\Omega , \mathcal{F}, P)$ denote ….” without ever citing Kolmogorov
UK used car price trends are quite telling:
March 16, 2025 at 10:56 PM
UK used car price trends are quite telling:
I wonder how much the commodification of education, at all levels, has to do with it. Thinking and tackling complexity is hard, painful, and frustrating. Hence at odds with "customer" satisfaction.
Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Have humans passed peak brain power?
Data across countries and ages reveal a growing struggle to concentrate, and declining verbal and numerical reasoning
www.ft.com
March 14, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I wonder how much the commodification of education, at all levels, has to do with it. Thinking and tackling complexity is hard, painful, and frustrating. Hence at odds with "customer" satisfaction.
Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
On behalf of the ones that still care about facts (and seem to be disappearing), a zillion thanks to the @kiel.institute for putting this together:
www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.
www.ifw-kiel.de
March 6, 2025 at 5:29 PM
On behalf of the ones that still care about facts (and seem to be disappearing), a zillion thanks to the @kiel.institute for putting this together:
www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25% www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25%
A trade group representing nearly all major automakers warned on Tuesday that new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will lead to drastic price hikes.
www.reuters.com
March 4, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25% www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and their Children,” by Londoño-Vélez (@jlondonovelez.bsky.social) and Saravia: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and Their Children*
Abstract. This paper examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and cre
doi.org
January 30, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and their Children,” by Londoño-Vélez (@jlondonovelez.bsky.social) and Saravia: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Reposted by Christian Julliard
On day 4, this is a new frontier
This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension)
These data were already out the door
It COSTS resources to yank it back
This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension)
These data were already out the door
It COSTS resources to yank it back
This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
Just had our data access rescinded for a projected using federal microdata to study and reduce disparate impact in housing markets.
January 23, 2025 at 5:48 PM
On day 4, this is a new frontier
This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension)
These data were already out the door
It COSTS resources to yank it back
This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension)
These data were already out the door
It COSTS resources to yank it back
This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
Reposted by Christian Julliard
PLEASE RT :)
Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics
Deadline Jan 30 (soon!)
Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics
Deadline Jan 30 (soon!)
Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
January 17, 2025 at 10:40 PM
PLEASE RT :)
Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics
Deadline Jan 30 (soon!)
Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics
Deadline Jan 30 (soon!)
Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
Reposted by Christian Julliard
"Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs...the returns to marginal audits...exceed the returns to average audits...Deterrence...results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile." academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution*
Abstract. We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90
academic.oup.com
January 14, 2025 at 8:56 PM
"Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs...the returns to marginal audits...exceed the returns to average audits...Deterrence...results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile." academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
Time for the last teaching fine tuning, so just finished the material for the practical "how to" of robust Bayesian Asset Pricing:
christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac...
Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format.
🧪
christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac...
Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format.
🧪
Bayesian Factor Zoo package - Christian Julliard homepage
Bayesian Factor Zoo package The package implements all robust asset pricing methods in Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models, (2023) and Bayesian Fama-MacBeth Regre...
christianjulliard.net
January 7, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Time for the last teaching fine tuning, so just finished the material for the practical "how to" of robust Bayesian Asset Pricing:
christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac...
Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format.
🧪
christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac...
Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format.
🧪
Reposted by Christian Julliard
#ASSA2025 livestream sessions available to everyone at
ASSA 2025 Live-Streamed Sessions
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance...
buff.ly
January 3, 2025 at 2:05 PM
#ASSA2025 livestream sessions available to everyone at
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Ariel is always a must read
It’s impossible not to know what’s happening in Gaza. Article by two prominent Israeli economists Motty Perry and Ariel Rubinstein www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
It's impossible not to know what's going on in Gaza | Opinion
***
www.haaretz.com
December 24, 2024 at 7:03 PM
Ariel is always a must read
Reposted by Christian Julliard
New evidence that it was the economic vibes, stupid open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
A Win for the Vibecession Story
Guess what? Popular economic narratives aren’t reliable
open.substack.com
December 21, 2024 at 12:06 PM
New evidence that it was the economic vibes, stupid open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Reposted by Christian Julliard
I think this should be kind of a big deal: Elon Musk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.”
The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
December 20, 2024 at 11:25 AM
I think this should be kind of a big deal: Elon Musk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.”
The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Are you on the job market and have very few interview requests (<5, say)? Now is the time to email your advisor and ask for help!
December 20, 2024 at 1:56 PM
Are you on the job market and have very few interview requests (<5, say)? Now is the time to email your advisor and ask for help!