Brad DeLong
@delong.social
Author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century". Too online since 1995. Sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. UC Berkeley Professor.
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Brad DeLong
@delong.social
· Dec 2
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality | Substack
Economic history, economics, political economy, finance, & forecasting. Here to try to make you (and me) smarter in a world with many increasingly deep & complicated troubles... Click to read Brad DeL...
braddelong.substack.com
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[email protected] :: +1-925-708-0467
J. Bradford DeLong
Holgate House
2828 Webster St.
Berkeley, CA 94705
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[email protected] :: +1-925-708-0467
J. Bradford DeLong
Holgate House
2828 Webster St.
Berkeley, CA 94705
Using GPT LLM MAMLMs as Your Rabbit—Your Pacer
GPT LLM MAMLMs are not oracles, subordinates, or colleagues. They are emulations of TISs—Typical Internet S***posters. If you are at all a good writer, the most they can be is “rabbits” that, in races and in training, mark and keep the pace that... 1/
GPT LLM MAMLMs are not oracles, subordinates, or colleagues. They are emulations of TISs—Typical Internet S***posters. If you are at all a good writer, the most they can be is “rabbits” that, in races and in training, mark and keep the pace that... 1/
November 23, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Using GPT LLM MAMLMs as Your Rabbit—Your Pacer
GPT LLM MAMLMs are not oracles, subordinates, or colleagues. They are emulations of TISs—Typical Internet S***posters. If you are at all a good writer, the most they can be is “rabbits” that, in races and in training, mark and keep the pace that... 1/
GPT LLM MAMLMs are not oracles, subordinates, or colleagues. They are emulations of TISs—Typical Internet S***posters. If you are at all a good writer, the most they can be is “rabbits” that, in races and in training, mark and keep the pace that... 1/
More Lies About Trade Tariffs From the Chaos Monkeys
How can it be that imposing tariffs did not cause inflation or reduce affordability, but that removing tariffs will reduce inflation and increase affordability? It makes no sense. But it is not supposed to. The point is not to make a... 1/
How can it be that imposing tariffs did not cause inflation or reduce affordability, but that removing tariffs will reduce inflation and increase affordability? It makes no sense. But it is not supposed to. The point is not to make a... 1/
November 22, 2025 at 12:50 AM
More Lies About Trade Tariffs From the Chaos Monkeys
How can it be that imposing tariffs did not cause inflation or reduce affordability, but that removing tariffs will reduce inflation and increase affordability? It makes no sense. But it is not supposed to. The point is not to make a... 1/
How can it be that imposing tariffs did not cause inflation or reduce affordability, but that removing tariffs will reduce inflation and increase affordability? It makes no sense. But it is not supposed to. The point is not to make a... 1/
@ryanlcooper.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
@ryanlcooper.com
Tuesday Economic Growth Blogging: The Pre‑Modern Treadmill Was Real on Necessities, Not on Technology, or Luxuries, or Culture, or Means of Domination
Greg Clark’s “Farewell to Alms” still tempts with one big, clean story: pre‑modern humanity stuck on a Malthusian treadmill until cultural-bio... 1/
Greg Clark’s “Farewell to Alms” still tempts with one big, clean story: pre‑modern humanity stuck on a Malthusian treadmill until cultural-bio... 1/
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Tuesday Economic Growth Blogging: The Pre‑Modern Treadmill Was Real on Necessities, Not on Technology, or Luxuries, or Culture, or Means of Domination
Greg Clark’s “Farewell to Alms” still tempts with one big, clean story: pre‑modern humanity stuck on a Malthusian treadmill until cultural-bio... 1/
Greg Clark’s “Farewell to Alms” still tempts with one big, clean story: pre‑modern humanity stuck on a Malthusian treadmill until cultural-bio... 1/
Reposted by Brad DeLong
I would be inclined to translate it more vernacularly as "You don't have to hope in order to try, you don't need to succeed to keep trying" OR "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again!"
And who was it who said: "if at first you don't fricassee, fry fry a hen!?"
And who was it who said: "if at first you don't fricassee, fry fry a hen!?"
November 19, 2025 at 3:40 PM
I would be inclined to translate it more vernacularly as "You don't have to hope in order to try, you don't need to succeed to keep trying" OR "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again!"
And who was it who said: "if at first you don't fricassee, fry fry a hen!?"
And who was it who said: "if at first you don't fricassee, fry fry a hen!?"
Reposted by Brad DeLong
I 'like' this variation from Paradise Lost:
“What reinforcement we may gain from hope,
If not, what resolution from despair.”
“What reinforcement we may gain from hope,
If not, what resolution from despair.”
November 19, 2025 at 3:16 PM
I 'like' this variation from Paradise Lost:
“What reinforcement we may gain from hope,
If not, what resolution from despair.”
“What reinforcement we may gain from hope,
If not, what resolution from despair.”
Thursday State of the SubStacks: Walking the Tightrope Over the Attention-Economy Abyss
As app‑first feeds and social ephemera threaten the email/blog/tip‑jar core, VC incentives collide with public reason, the brittle economics of “#discoverability” make themselves felt, and it turns out... 1/
As app‑first feeds and social ephemera threaten the email/blog/tip‑jar core, VC incentives collide with public reason, the brittle economics of “#discoverability” make themselves felt, and it turns out... 1/
Thursday State of the SubStacks: Walking the Tightrope Over the Attention-Economy Abyss
As app‑first feeds and social ephemera threaten the email/blog/tip‑jar core, VC incentives collide with public reason, the brittle economics of “#discoverability” make themselves felt, and it turns...
braddelong.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Thursday State of the SubStacks: Walking the Tightrope Over the Attention-Economy Abyss
As app‑first feeds and social ephemera threaten the email/blog/tip‑jar core, VC incentives collide with public reason, the brittle economics of “#discoverability” make themselves felt, and it turns out... 1/
As app‑first feeds and social ephemera threaten the email/blog/tip‑jar core, VC incentives collide with public reason, the brittle economics of “#discoverability” make themselves felt, and it turns out... 1/
I prefer Camus: “il faut imaginer Sisyphus heureux”—one must imagine Sisyphus happy. It is clear to me that the “il faut” is along the lines of “the order of the universe requires” while “imaginer” means picture, conceive, or envisage, with no connotation that what one “imaginer” is in fact... 1/
November 19, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I prefer Camus: “il faut imaginer Sisyphus heureux”—one must imagine Sisyphus happy. It is clear to me that the “il faut” is along the lines of “the order of the universe requires” while “imaginer” means picture, conceive, or envisage, with no connotation that what one “imaginer” is in fact... 1/
Just What Do Trump's "Trade Deals" Consist of? Nothing
Malaysia deals with a chaos-monkey superpower: empty appeasement coupled with steps at derisking via exit from coupled arrangements that create vulnerabilities…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/just-what-... >
Malaysia deals with a chaos-monkey superpower: empty appeasement coupled with steps at derisking via exit from coupled arrangements that create vulnerabilities…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/just-what-... >
Just What Do Trump's "Trade Deals" Consist of? Nothing
Malaysia deals with a chaos-monkey superpower: empty appeasement coupled with steps at derisking via exit from coupled arrangements that create vulnerabilities...
braddelong.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Just What Do Trump's "Trade Deals" Consist of? Nothing
Malaysia deals with a chaos-monkey superpower: empty appeasement coupled with steps at derisking via exit from coupled arrangements that create vulnerabilities…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/just-what-... >
Malaysia deals with a chaos-monkey superpower: empty appeasement coupled with steps at derisking via exit from coupled arrangements that create vulnerabilities…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/just-what-... >
Reposted by Brad DeLong
Moral boosting speech to rouse the troops by going "we're f***ed, we're absolutely f***ed. we're doing awful, shameful things to hang on and they probably won't even work. it's absolutely terrible lads, you've no idea, it's so bad. anyway, until you hear different, business as usual"
November 15, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Moral boosting speech to rouse the troops by going "we're f***ed, we're absolutely f***ed. we're doing awful, shameful things to hang on and they probably won't even work. it's absolutely terrible lads, you've no idea, it's so bad. anyway, until you hear different, business as usual"
Reposted by Brad DeLong
WeRateDogs turns 10 years old today! A very silly idea to numerically objectify dogs has become one of the kindest and most powerful online communities ever. Thank you for joining us over the last decade. I never knew what this could be until you all showed me. Here's to many more good dogs ❤️
November 15, 2025 at 3:42 PM
WeRateDogs turns 10 years old today! A very silly idea to numerically objectify dogs has become one of the kindest and most powerful online communities ever. Thank you for joining us over the last decade. I never knew what this could be until you all showed me. Here's to many more good dogs ❤️
Reposted by Brad DeLong
We don’t need 9 Wizards In Robes to figure out if “national emergency” laws give this guy the power to randomly alter tariffs on a daily basis
BREAKING: President Trump drops tariffs on beef, coffee and tropical fruit as pressure builds on consumer prices.
Trump drops tariffs on beef, coffee, tropical fruit as pressure builds on consumer prices
President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to get rid of tariffs on a broad swath of commodities, including beef, coffee and tropical fruits.
bit.ly
November 14, 2025 at 10:48 PM
We don’t need 9 Wizards In Robes to figure out if “national emergency” laws give this guy the power to randomly alter tariffs on a daily basis
Reposted by Brad DeLong
you could fact check this — there aren’t 30 million illegal immigrants and there is no evidence that the presence of an immigrant in say houston has any impact on housing in madison, wisconsin — or you could note straightforwardly that this is just nazi rhetoric
JD Vance: "A lot of young people are saying housing is way too expensive. Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants who were taking houses that ought by right go to American citizens."
November 13, 2025 at 10:12 PM
you could fact check this — there aren’t 30 million illegal immigrants and there is no evidence that the presence of an immigrant in say houston has any impact on housing in madison, wisconsin — or you could note straightforwardly that this is just nazi rhetoric
Reposted by Brad DeLong
he really is just a nazi, who appears to take joy in the fact that he once sort of knew better. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/was-vance-...
November 13, 2025 at 10:36 PM
he really is just a nazi, who appears to take joy in the fact that he once sort of knew better. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/was-vance-...
Reposted by Brad DeLong
“Radicalization doesn’t usually mean that someone abandons their old beliefs. Instead, it usually means that someone is convinced to embrace the worst version of themselves.”
Holy shit yes that’s exactly it
Holy shit yes that’s exactly it
he really is just a nazi, who appears to take joy in the fact that he once sort of knew better. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/was-vance-...
November 14, 2025 at 12:15 PM
“Radicalization doesn’t usually mean that someone abandons their old beliefs. Instead, it usually means that someone is convinced to embrace the worst version of themselves.”
Holy shit yes that’s exactly it
Holy shit yes that’s exactly it
Reposted by Brad DeLong
The mythical media trump—who knows anything about what he's talking about—is on a collision course with the sudden need to pretend to know nothing at all about a story that he's had lots of help trying to forget.
Round Up the Usual Suspect - Truthdig
The media version of Donald Trump as the author of his own administration isn't the one leaving his DNA at the crime scene.
www.truthdig.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:19 PM
The mythical media trump—who knows anything about what he's talking about—is on a collision course with the sudden need to pretend to know nothing at all about a story that he's had lots of help trying to forget.
Reposted by Brad DeLong
I keep thinking about this bit in @hunterw.bsky.social's piece on Rod Dreher's tete-a-tete with Vance, and how it connects with Christian Zionists being furious with Kevin Roberts. 🧵
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/jd-vanc...
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/jd-vanc...
November 13, 2025 at 8:23 PM
I keep thinking about this bit in @hunterw.bsky.social's piece on Rod Dreher's tete-a-tete with Vance, and how it connects with Christian Zionists being furious with Kevin Roberts. 🧵
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/jd-vanc...
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/jd-vanc...
Reposted by Brad DeLong
To review:
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
November 13, 2025 at 4:50 PM
To review:
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Reposted by Brad DeLong
Hey @rodger.bsky.social guess who's in the news again!
The Kremlin disguised a nearly $100 mn payment to Trump in the form of a brokered real estate deal... and both Jeffrey Epstein and William Pulte were involved in the deal. That's very interesting.
November 13, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Hey @rodger.bsky.social guess who's in the news again!
Reposted by Brad DeLong
If I were Melania, I’d keep him sedated around me, too.
despite standing, Trump seems to be having trouble keeping his eyes open while Melania speaks
November 13, 2025 at 8:36 PM
If I were Melania, I’d keep him sedated around me, too.
Reposted by Brad DeLong
"Hoping to save up to buy braces"
Oooof.
Oooof.
November 13, 2025 at 6:56 PM
"Hoping to save up to buy braces"
Oooof.
Oooof.
Reposted by Brad DeLong
I see the “technically it’s ephebophelia” crowd is out today, so just a reminder that A) this is NOT a case where technically correct is the best kind of correct and B) the minute you say this, the gods dump you in the “irredeemable creeper” basket and wash their hands thoroughly after touching you.
November 13, 2025 at 6:57 PM
I see the “technically it’s ephebophelia” crowd is out today, so just a reminder that A) this is NOT a case where technically correct is the best kind of correct and B) the minute you say this, the gods dump you in the “irredeemable creeper” basket and wash their hands thoroughly after touching you.
Reposted by Brad DeLong
Honestly, until like the 1970s or 1980s, people have held the attitude that adult men having sex with teenagers is "normal" and "biologically wired." They still believe it, they just learned to stop talking about it openly at some point.
Conservatives when it's a 15 year old in library; "These are children and I can't believe we are letting them read smut like Twilight!!!"
Conservatives when it's a 15 year old sex trafficking victim; "Looks, these people are practically legal. Barely legal even"
Conservatives when it's a 15 year old sex trafficking victim; "Looks, these people are practically legal. Barely legal even"
November 13, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Honestly, until like the 1970s or 1980s, people have held the attitude that adult men having sex with teenagers is "normal" and "biologically wired." They still believe it, they just learned to stop talking about it openly at some point.
Reposted by Brad DeLong
the new york times, we care about victims
BUT
BUT
I understand how paragraphs like this emerge from the editing process, but of course “little attention has been given” to a story no one knew about a minor victim whose identity was protected by a bunch of laws.
As Schmidt says in his post, this is our first encounter with this information.
As Schmidt says in his post, this is our first encounter with this information.
November 13, 2025 at 6:54 PM
the new york times, we care about victims
BUT
BUT
Reposted by Brad DeLong
Here's the thing, Emily. Maybe your claims are true. Heck, I'd bet money they mostly are. But today? Today that doesn't matter.
Today, the correct response is "We thought we did our due diligence. Clearly we should have dug further, instead of dedicating so much space to Hillary's emails."
Today, the correct response is "We thought we did our due diligence. Clearly we should have dug further, instead of dedicating so much space to Hillary's emails."
As a former member of NYT’s finance team & the co-author of this story exposing the relationship between Epstein & Bill Gates as well as one on Epstein & JPMorgan, I am really frustrated to see people claiming that NYT sat on publishable info about Trump and Epstein 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/b...
Bill Gates Met With Jeffrey Epstein Many Times, Despite His Past (Published 2019)
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Here's the thing, Emily. Maybe your claims are true. Heck, I'd bet money they mostly are. But today? Today that doesn't matter.
Today, the correct response is "We thought we did our due diligence. Clearly we should have dug further, instead of dedicating so much space to Hillary's emails."
Today, the correct response is "We thought we did our due diligence. Clearly we should have dug further, instead of dedicating so much space to Hillary's emails."