Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
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I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
www.hartpunkt.de/europas-ores...
www.hartpunkt.de/europas-ores...
But it exposes broader gaps in Europe's deterrence posture, which lacks credible counterstrike capabilities and remains too dependent on the United States in the nuclear domain.
5/5
But it exposes broader gaps in Europe's deterrence posture, which lacks credible counterstrike capabilities and remains too dependent on the United States in the nuclear domain.
5/5
Nuclear Oreshniks are covered under NATO’s nuclear deterrent, which, however, remains overly dependent on the U.S. contribution.
4/5
Nuclear Oreshniks are covered under NATO’s nuclear deterrent, which, however, remains overly dependent on the U.S. contribution.
4/5
Politically, however, this may not be an option, as leaders & publics may demand interception attempts even if they are cost-ineffective.
3/5
Politically, however, this may not be an option, as leaders & publics may demand interception attempts even if they are cost-ineffective.
3/5
Higher-value military point targets cannot be engaged effectively.
2/5
Higher-value military point targets cannot be engaged effectively.
2/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
The UAV is approximately 6 meters long, with a 5.5-meter wingspan and a warhead weight of 90 kg.
An airborne version is also being developed, specifically for launches from the Su-25, and equipped with R-73 missiles.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
If it's on the order of 30, it's in line with a 10 percent systemic error rate which is rather typical for most conventional long-range strike weapons.
Anyone has the number?
If it's on the order of 30, it's in line with a 10 percent systemic error rate which is rather typical for most conventional long-range strike weapons.
Anyone has the number?
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
6/6
6/6
Given the state of transatlantic relations, European suppliers may have an advantage. American competitors try to counter by offering localization of production.
5/6
Given the state of transatlantic relations, European suppliers may have an advantage. American competitors try to counter by offering localization of production.
5/6
Mini cruise missiles may allow states that were previously priced out of the missile market to acquire deep missile arsenals. Here, the capability is not merely complementary but enabling.
4/6
Mini cruise missiles may allow states that were previously priced out of the missile market to acquire deep missile arsenals. Here, the capability is not merely complementary but enabling.
4/6
In this regard, they primarily serve complementary purposes.
3/6
In this regard, they primarily serve complementary purposes.
3/6
In fact, they share more in common with heavier legacy cruise missiles, although they are offered at substantially lower price points (around 150-300k per unit), which in turn shapes their capability profile.
2/6
In fact, they share more in common with heavier legacy cruise missiles, although they are offered at substantially lower price points (around 150-300k per unit), which in turn shapes their capability profile.
2/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?
What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?