Fabian Hoffmann
@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy.
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Pinned
The Oreshnik Problem for Europe
Technical constraints, opportunity costs, and Europe’s unresolved deterrence deficits
missilematters.substack.com
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
The Oreshnik Problem for Europe
Technical constraints, opportunity costs, and Europe’s unresolved deterrence deficits
missilematters.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Das russische Raketensystem Oreshnik stellt @frhoffmann.bsky.social zufolge eine Herausforderung für die europäische Sicherheit dar. Diese Herausforderung ergibt sich jedoch weniger aus den technischen Eigenschaften der Rakete, die nach wie vor überbewertet werden.
www.hartpunkt.de/europas-ores...
www.hartpunkt.de/europas-ores...
Europas Oreshnik-Problem: Technische Einschränkungen, Opportunitätskosten und ungelöste Abschreckungsdefizite
In der Nacht vom 8. auf den 9. Januar 2026 startete Russland den zweiten bestätigten Oreshnik-Raketenangriff gegen die Ukraine.
www.hartpunkt.de
January 11, 2026 at 1:43 PM
Das russische Raketensystem Oreshnik stellt @frhoffmann.bsky.social zufolge eine Herausforderung für die europäische Sicherheit dar. Diese Herausforderung ergibt sich jedoch weniger aus den technischen Eigenschaften der Rakete, die nach wie vor überbewertet werden.
www.hartpunkt.de/europas-ores...
www.hartpunkt.de/europas-ores...
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
The Oreshnik Problem for Europe
Technical constraints, opportunity costs, and Europe’s unresolved deterrence deficits
missilematters.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the challenge the Oreshnik missile poses to European defense.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-i...
Short summary below.
1/5
Looks like Russia ordered the Tiktok shop version of a Ukrainian mini cruise missile lmao.
‼️ GUR: In early 2026, the Russians first flew the new Geran-5 jet-powered UAV.
The UAV is approximately 6 meters long, with a 5.5-meter wingspan and a warhead weight of 90 kg.
An airborne version is also being developed, specifically for launches from the Su-25, and equipped with R-73 missiles.
The UAV is approximately 6 meters long, with a 5.5-meter wingspan and a warhead weight of 90 kg.
An airborne version is also being developed, specifically for launches from the Su-25, and equipped with R-73 missiles.
January 11, 2026 at 8:56 AM
Looks like Russia ordered the Tiktok shop version of a Ukrainian mini cruise missile lmao.
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Turns out defending international law in a world of predators is impossible if you don't have sufficient force to defend yourself.
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
January 5, 2026 at 2:55 PM
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
2026: The Year of the Mini Cruise Missile?
How low cost cruise missiles are reshaping arsenals, procurement, and market competition after Ukraine
missilematters.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:21 AM
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Thread. NB: “Mini cruise missiles may allow states that were previously priced out of the missile market to acquire deep missile arsenals.”
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
2026: The Year of the Mini Cruise Missile?
How low cost cruise missiles are reshaping arsenals, procurement, and market competition after Ukraine
missilematters.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Thread. NB: “Mini cruise missiles may allow states that were previously priced out of the missile market to acquire deep missile arsenals.”
How bad this is really depends on how many Tomahawks were launched.
If it's on the order of 30, it's in line with a 10 percent systemic error rate which is rather typical for most conventional long-range strike weapons.
Anyone has the number?
If it's on the order of 30, it's in line with a 10 percent systemic error rate which is rather typical for most conventional long-range strike weapons.
Anyone has the number?
🇺🇸🇳🇬🚀 At least three Tomahawk missiles from the US's strike on ISIS targets in Nigeria fell short of their targets: the morning after the attack, locals found missile debris and unexploded warheads, - Militarnyi
December 28, 2025 at 10:48 AM
How bad this is really depends on how many Tomahawks were launched.
If it's on the order of 30, it's in line with a 10 percent systemic error rate which is rather typical for most conventional long-range strike weapons.
Anyone has the number?
If it's on the order of 30, it's in line with a 10 percent systemic error rate which is rather typical for most conventional long-range strike weapons.
Anyone has the number?
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
"In Europa levert Destinus [uit 🇳🇱 Hengelo] de beproefde Ruta mini-kruisraket, die veelvuldig is gebruikt in Oekraïne."
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
2026: The Year of the Mini Cruise Missile?
How low cost cruise missiles are reshaping arsenals, procurement, and market competition after Ukraine
missilematters.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:30 AM
"In Europa levert Destinus [uit 🇳🇱 Hengelo] de beproefde Ruta mini-kruisraket, die veelvuldig is gebruikt in Oekraïne."
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
2026: The Year of the Mini Cruise Missile?
How low cost cruise missiles are reshaping arsenals, procurement, and market competition after Ukraine
missilematters.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:21 AM
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles.
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/2026-the-y...
Summary below.
1/6
Extremely nerdy missile question, but maybe someone can help out:
What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?
What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?
December 7, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Extremely nerdy missile question, but maybe someone can help out:
What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?
What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
The basic problem with the United States' call for Europe to lead on conventional forces while it takes care of nuclear deterrence.
It's not credible the US would fight a nuclear war over Europe if they aren't willing to contribute conventionally.
December 6, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The basic problem with the United States' call for Europe to lead on conventional forces while it takes care of nuclear deterrence.
May god help us all, the defense bros have made it to China.
December 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
May god help us all, the defense bros have made it to China.
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
Ukraine’s Conventional Long-Range Strike Forces at the end of 2025
A comprehensive review of Ukrainian missiles and long-range drones
missilematters.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
Ukraine’s Conventional Long-Range Strike Forces at the end of 2025
A comprehensive review of Ukrainian missiles and long-range drones
missilematters.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Hi all,
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraine’s conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/from-flami...
Short summary below.
1/4
Because I've been asked a few times now:
I'm currently absent from here and other social media because I'm finalizing my PhD dissertation, which takes priority amid all the chaos.
So don't be offended if I don't respond to you. I'll be back in full force in the new year 🙂
I'm currently absent from here and other social media because I'm finalizing my PhD dissertation, which takes priority amid all the chaos.
So don't be offended if I don't respond to you. I'll be back in full force in the new year 🙂
November 19, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Because I've been asked a few times now:
I'm currently absent from here and other social media because I'm finalizing my PhD dissertation, which takes priority amid all the chaos.
So don't be offended if I don't respond to you. I'll be back in full force in the new year 🙂
I'm currently absent from here and other social media because I'm finalizing my PhD dissertation, which takes priority amid all the chaos.
So don't be offended if I don't respond to you. I'll be back in full force in the new year 🙂
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
Uncrewed Combat Aerial Vehicles - An Option for Deep Precision Strike?
Assessing the cost, survivability, and mission value of UCAVs in comparison to one-way effectors
missilematters.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Highly interesting.
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
Uncrewed Combat Aerial Vehicles - An Option for Deep Precision Strike?
Assessing the cost, survivability, and mission value of UCAVs in comparison to one-way effectors
missilematters.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Highly interesting.
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
Uncrewed Combat Aerial Vehicles - An Option for Deep Precision Strike?
Assessing the cost, survivability, and mission value of UCAVs in comparison to one-way effectors
missilematters.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
I published a new Missile Matters post in which I model and compare the cost efficiency of UCAVs in deep strike missions to assess whether these systems can help bridge Europe’s deep strike gap.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/uncrewed-c...
Short summary below.
1/3
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Can #Germany Become Europe's Missile Superpower: @frhoffmann.bsky.social substack.com/app-link/pos...
Can Germany Become Europe's Missile Superpower
As Germany ramps up its conventional long-range strike investments, questions about its missile strategy arise.
substack.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Can #Germany Become Europe's Missile Superpower: @frhoffmann.bsky.social substack.com/app-link/pos...
Finally had time to watch House of Dynamite. Honestly, I expected worse.
But it's frustrating, because with even a bit of research, they could have come up with a scenario that was both exciting enough for a movie and realistic. Instead, they went with one that makes no sense at all.
1/3
But it's frustrating, because with even a bit of research, they could have come up with a scenario that was both exciting enough for a movie and realistic. Instead, they went with one that makes no sense at all.
1/3
November 2, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Finally had time to watch House of Dynamite. Honestly, I expected worse.
But it's frustrating, because with even a bit of research, they could have come up with a scenario that was both exciting enough for a movie and realistic. Instead, they went with one that makes no sense at all.
1/3
But it's frustrating, because with even a bit of research, they could have come up with a scenario that was both exciting enough for a movie and realistic. Instead, they went with one that makes no sense at all.
1/3
A Polish mass-produced ALCM is only a matter of time. We'll see if it ends up being this one or another design.
defence24.pl/przemysl/pow...
1/3
defence24.pl/przemysl/pow...
1/3
Powstaną polsko-amerykańskie pociski manewrujące?
Dziś zostało podpisane porozumienie pomiędzy Polską Grupą Zbrojeniową a amerykańską spółką Anduril Industries. Przedmiotem umowy jest wspólne opracowanie i produkcja autonomicznych systemów powietrzny...
defence24.pl
October 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
A Polish mass-produced ALCM is only a matter of time. We'll see if it ends up being this one or another design.
defence24.pl/przemysl/pow...
1/3
defence24.pl/przemysl/pow...
1/3
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.
In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.
Access the post here, short summary below.
1/6
missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.
In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.
Access the post here, short summary below.
1/6
missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.
In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.
Access the post here, short summary below.
1/6
missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.
In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.
Access the post here, short summary below.
1/6
missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
Russia is paying around 2.4 million USD for 9M723 short-range ballistic missiles and Kh-101 land-attack cruise missiles.
In PPP-adjusted terms, that's around 0.81 million USD. That's a good deal, so Russia has done a pretty good job keeping costs low.
defence-blog.com/analysts-bre...
In PPP-adjusted terms, that's around 0.81 million USD. That's a good deal, so Russia has done a pretty good job keeping costs low.
defence-blog.com/analysts-bre...
Analysts break down real cost of Russian missiles
Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi has released a comprehensive analysis of classified procurement documents outlining the true cost and production volumes of Russia's long-range missile arsenal...
defence-blog.com
October 23, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Russia is paying around 2.4 million USD for 9M723 short-range ballistic missiles and Kh-101 land-attack cruise missiles.
In PPP-adjusted terms, that's around 0.81 million USD. That's a good deal, so Russia has done a pretty good job keeping costs low.
defence-blog.com/analysts-bre...
In PPP-adjusted terms, that's around 0.81 million USD. That's a good deal, so Russia has done a pretty good job keeping costs low.
defence-blog.com/analysts-bre...