Genevieve Signoret
@gsignoret.bsky.social
Asset manager, wealth manager, entrepreneur, international macroeconomist, writer. Based in Querétaro, Mexico. President and Head of Asset Allocation at TransEconomics.
Pinned
People keep bringing up “circularity” in the artificial-intelligence (AI) industry as a reason for fearing that AI stocks are in a bubble. What are they talking about?
Check out this one-minute Q-A to find out.
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/w...
Check out this one-minute Q-A to find out.
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/w...
It takes time.
As Mark Galeotti reminds us, shuttle diplomacy used to be carried out behind the scenes, by professional diplomats. It took time then and will take time now. The difference now, with Trump, is that it’s being carried out as a public spectacle.
As Mark Galeotti reminds us, shuttle diplomacy used to be carried out behind the scenes, by professional diplomats. It took time then and will take time now. The difference now, with Trump, is that it’s being carried out as a public spectacle.
No breakthrough after Ukraine talks in Miami
No breakthrough after Ukraine talks in Miami
Steve Witkoff and Kyiv’s Rustem Umerov used identical language, saying Ukraine “highly values” U.S. support.
dlvr.it
December 22, 2025 at 1:07 AM
It takes time.
As Mark Galeotti reminds us, shuttle diplomacy used to be carried out behind the scenes, by professional diplomats. It took time then and will take time now. The difference now, with Trump, is that it’s being carried out as a public spectacle.
As Mark Galeotti reminds us, shuttle diplomacy used to be carried out behind the scenes, by professional diplomats. It took time then and will take time now. The difference now, with Trump, is that it’s being carried out as a public spectacle.
Acabo de enterarme de que Gandhi y Tolstoy se escribían cartas.
December 14, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Acabo de enterarme de que Gandhi y Tolstoy se escribían cartas.
"Yet it would be controversial to say the least for one of America’s biggest media companies, which would control both CNN and CBS News, to be part-owned by Gulf monarchies and the president’s son-in-law."
Netflix and Paramount are battling for more than Warner Bros
economist.com/business/202...
Netflix and Paramount are battling for more than Warner Bros
economist.com/business/202...
Netflix and Paramount are battling for more than Warner Bros
They present rival visions for the future of entertainment
economist.com
December 13, 2025 at 8:20 PM
"Yet it would be controversial to say the least for one of America’s biggest media companies, which would control both CNN and CBS News, to be part-owned by Gulf monarchies and the president’s son-in-law."
Netflix and Paramount are battling for more than Warner Bros
economist.com/business/202...
Netflix and Paramount are battling for more than Warner Bros
economist.com/business/202...
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
Trump just completely selling out the national interest on this chip export question — China has way more electricity generating capacity than we do. But we have the good chips and he’s throwing it away.
December 9, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Trump just completely selling out the national interest on this chip export question — China has way more electricity generating capacity than we do. But we have the good chips and he’s throwing it away.
I tell clients we rank him as “moderately high” in credibility as an inflation anchorer.
And remember that he has just one vote.
As Claudia has rightly insisted, what matters more is whether Trump can remove Fed presidents whose votes (or race, or gender, or messaging) he dislikes.
And remember that he has just one vote.
As Claudia has rightly insisted, what matters more is whether Trump can remove Fed presidents whose votes (or race, or gender, or messaging) he dislikes.
“Kevin Hassett is more than capable of doing the job of Fed chair, it’s just a question of who shows up,” said Claudia Sahm. “Is it the Kevin Hassett who is the active participant in the Trump administration? Or Kevin Hassett the independent economist?” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair
Some market participants worried candidate for top central bank job will be swayed by Trump on interest rates
giftarticle.ft.com
December 8, 2025 at 12:03 PM
I tell clients we rank him as “moderately high” in credibility as an inflation anchorer.
And remember that he has just one vote.
As Claudia has rightly insisted, what matters more is whether Trump can remove Fed presidents whose votes (or race, or gender, or messaging) he dislikes.
And remember that he has just one vote.
As Claudia has rightly insisted, what matters more is whether Trump can remove Fed presidents whose votes (or race, or gender, or messaging) he dislikes.
Yes, I think it’s right, it does matter more.
I have participated in the 'Fed Chair sweepstakes' like any good Fed watcher. It matters. But **absolutely pivotal** for next year is the Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook. If the President can remove members of the Board without review, it's game over for Fed independence.
“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable ride.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
December 8, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Yes, I think it’s right, it does matter more.
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
« Bond investors have told the US Treasury they are concerned about Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as Federal Reserve chair, worrying he will cut interest rates aggressively to please President Donald Trump. »
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair
Some market participants worried candidate for top central bank job will be swayed by Trump on interest rates
giftarticle.ft.com
December 4, 2025 at 4:04 AM
« Bond investors have told the US Treasury they are concerned about Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as Federal Reserve chair, worrying he will cut interest rates aggressively to please President Donald Trump. »
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
“.. what looked like a Trump premium has suddenly turned into a Trump drag ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
December 3, 2025 at 12:12 PM
“.. what looked like a Trump premium has suddenly turned into a Trump drag ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
Goldman: "for retailers whose stores are generally located in lower-income zip codes, sentiment around the consumer turned negative on net and nominal same store sales have grown only 0.2% over the last year (vs. 2.5% for companies exposed to middle- and higher-income zip codes)."
1/2
1/2
December 2, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Goldman: "for retailers whose stores are generally located in lower-income zip codes, sentiment around the consumer turned negative on net and nominal same store sales have grown only 0.2% over the last year (vs. 2.5% for companies exposed to middle- and higher-income zip codes)."
1/2
1/2
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
Several countries use targeted payments to offset the regressivity of consumption taxes. Canada is a prime example. It pairs a value-added tax on most goods and services with quarterly payments to low- and moderate-income households based on family income, marital status and the number of children.
December 1, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Several countries use targeted payments to offset the regressivity of consumption taxes. Canada is a prime example. It pairs a value-added tax on most goods and services with quarterly payments to low- and moderate-income households based on family income, marital status and the number of children.
The experience of having to revise my USD/JPY forecast revisions over and over, and to do so quite sharply, has prompted me to undertake a renewed deep research dive into the forces working on that rate.
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Japanese yen: I capitulate www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/j...
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Japanese yen: I capitulate www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/j...
Japanese yen: I capitulate
(Hay una versión en español de este artículo aquí.) I’ve been forecasting accelerated yen appreciation against the dollar now for several quarters, only to be proved wrong, again and again. This quart...
www.lacarpetanegra.com
December 1, 2025 at 7:27 PM
The experience of having to revise my USD/JPY forecast revisions over and over, and to do so quite sharply, has prompted me to undertake a renewed deep research dive into the forces working on that rate.
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Japanese yen: I capitulate www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/j...
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Japanese yen: I capitulate www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/j...
La experiencia de tener que revisar mis proyecciones dólar–yen una y otra vez, y hacerlo de forma tan pronunciada, me llevó a realizar una nueva investigación profunda sobre las fuerzas que inciden en ese tipo de cambio
Yen japonés: me rindo www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/y...
Yen japonés: me rindo www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/y...
Yen japonés: me rindo
(You can read the English version here.) Durante varios trimestres he venido pronosticando una apreciación acelerada del yen frente al dólar, sólo para equivocarme una y otra vez. Este trimestre volve...
www.lacarpetanegra.com
December 1, 2025 at 7:25 PM
La experiencia de tener que revisar mis proyecciones dólar–yen una y otra vez, y hacerlo de forma tan pronunciada, me llevó a realizar una nueva investigación profunda sobre las fuerzas que inciden en ese tipo de cambio
Yen japonés: me rindo www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/y...
Yen japonés: me rindo www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/27/y...
El link abre un artículo al estilo preguntas y respuestas que te explica el fenómeno en un minuto.
Mucha gente menciona la “circularidad” en la industria de la inteligencia artificial (IA) como motivo de preocupación de que las acciones del sector estén en una burbuja. ¿A qué se refieren?
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/q...
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/q...
December 1, 2025 at 7:24 PM
El link abre un artículo al estilo preguntas y respuestas que te explica el fenómeno en un minuto.
People keep bringing up “circularity” in the artificial-intelligence (AI) industry as a reason for fearing that AI stocks are in a bubble. What are they talking about?
Check out this one-minute Q-A to find out.
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/w...
Check out this one-minute Q-A to find out.
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/w...
December 1, 2025 at 7:22 PM
People keep bringing up “circularity” in the artificial-intelligence (AI) industry as a reason for fearing that AI stocks are in a bubble. What are they talking about?
Check out this one-minute Q-A to find out.
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/w...
Check out this one-minute Q-A to find out.
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/w...
Mucha gente menciona la “circularidad” en la industria de la inteligencia artificial (IA) como motivo de preocupación de que las acciones del sector estén en una burbuja. ¿A qué se refieren?
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/q...
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/q...
December 1, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Mucha gente menciona la “circularidad” en la industria de la inteligencia artificial (IA) como motivo de preocupación de que las acciones del sector estén en una burbuja. ¿A qué se refieren?
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/q...
www.lacarpetanegra.com/2025/11/28/q...
“First, findings of an association receive more attention than findings of no association, even when the latter come from higher-quality studies. Second, one can never prove that some exposure is entirely safe.”
quillette.com/2025/11/26/p...
quillette.com/2025/11/26/p...
Poison and the Pen
A new article in MIT’s ‘Undark’ magazine recycles old misinformation about a supposedly toxic chemical.
quillette.com
November 30, 2025 at 2:40 PM
“First, findings of an association receive more attention than findings of no association, even when the latter come from higher-quality studies. Second, one can never prove that some exposure is entirely safe.”
quillette.com/2025/11/26/p...
quillette.com/2025/11/26/p...
This is a hilarious thread?
I don't think it's particularly technophobic or luddite to dislike food delivery robots esp on first encounter. They raise questions. Are they safe for kids + the infirm? Is someone going to coopt them for covert surveillance? It's fairly human to find non human apparent autonomy unsettling, no?
November 29, 2025 at 4:30 PM
This is a hilarious thread?
Helpful!
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Helpful!
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
U.K 30 YEAR GILT YIELD DOWN 9.8 BPS TO 5.23%, IN BIGGEST ONE DAY FALL SINCE APRIL
November 26, 2025 at 3:53 PM
U.K 30 YEAR GILT YIELD DOWN 9.8 BPS TO 5.23%, IN BIGGEST ONE DAY FALL SINCE APRIL
Reposted by Genevieve Signoret
so #Budget2026 taxes a bit more, spends a bit more.. net mildly contractionary.. but no extra squeeze until the end of the parliament (which presumably wont happen). That's it?
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
November 26, 2025 at 12:35 PM
so #Budget2026 taxes a bit more, spends a bit more.. net mildly contractionary.. but no extra squeeze until the end of the parliament (which presumably wont happen). That's it?
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
Tomó apuntes sobre Galeotti acerca del plan entre Estados Unidos y Rusia para poner fin a la guerra Rusia–Ucrania www.transeconomics.com/timoneconomi...
Tomó apuntes sobre Galeotti acerca del plan entre Estados Unidos y Rusia para poner fin a la guerra Rusia–Ucrania
(You can read the English version here.) Hoy iniciamos lo que esperamos se convierta en una serie de Timón Económico titulada Tomó apuntes. En ella compartiremos ideas recogidas de episodios de pódcas...
www.transeconomics.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Tomó apuntes sobre Galeotti acerca del plan entre Estados Unidos y Rusia para poner fin a la guerra Rusia–Ucrania www.transeconomics.com/timoneconomi...