Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
@hferrinholopes.bsky.social
Lecturer at Iscte-IUL & @uminho.bsky.social 🎓
I study how political parties adapt, endure, and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure — and how it affects party change, behavior and representation. 🗳️🔄🏛️
🔗 https://hugoferrinholopes.github.io/
I study how political parties adapt, endure, and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure — and how it affects party change, behavior and representation. 🗳️🔄🏛️
🔗 https://hugoferrinholopes.github.io/
Pinned
Fueled by coffee, lifted by friends: PhD done ✅🎓
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Coming out in June.
(when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)
(when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)
February 3, 2026 at 7:09 AM
Coming out in June.
(when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)
(when @casmudde.bsky.social & I will be presenting it at the @ces-europe.bsky.social conference in Dublin)
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Últimas sondagens publicadas e resultados das eleições presidenciais, 1996-2026 (1ª volta).
January 31, 2026 at 10:45 PM
Últimas sondagens publicadas e resultados das eleições presidenciais, 1996-2026 (1ª volta).
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out!
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January 26, 2026 at 3:12 PM
NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out!
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Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Very interesting new publication by Leonie Rettig and @lukasisermann.com on descriptive attributes as voting heuristics - specifically age and gender:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics
The lack of candidate diversity and the descriptive under-representation of groups such as women and young people in parliaments is a recurring concer…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:49 AM
Very interesting new publication by Leonie Rettig and @lukasisermann.com on descriptive attributes as voting heuristics - specifically age and gender:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
A minha análise da primeira volta das eleições presidenciais em Portugal.
“Nestas eleições, Ventura tem como objectivo transformar-se no líder da direita”
O historiador e cientista político António Costa Pinto traça em conversa com o PÚBLICO as principais conclusões e análises da primeira volta das eleições presidenciais.
www.publico.pt
January 19, 2026 at 4:02 PM
A minha análise da primeira volta das eleições presidenciais em Portugal.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Um ensaio no @jornalexpresso.bsky.social sobre as atitudes dos portugueses em relação à Inteligência Artificial, baseado num inquérito apoiado pela @caixaresearch.bsky.social. expresso.pt/semanario/id...
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Os portugueses e a inteligência artificial
O investigador do Instituto de Ciências Sociais analisa a nossa relação com a IA a partir de um inquérito a pessoas com mais de 15 anos
expresso.pt
January 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM
Um ensaio no @jornalexpresso.bsky.social sobre as atitudes dos portugueses em relação à Inteligência Artificial, baseado num inquérito apoiado pela @caixaresearch.bsky.social. expresso.pt/semanario/id...
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Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Given the bad cold that I've had for the past few days (in the midst of the Australian summer 🤦♀️), waking up to this email was particularly sweet...
Coming soon in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: our YOUMEM study on gender differences in motivations for joining youth wings of young women and men ✨
Coming soon in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: our YOUMEM study on gender differences in motivations for joining youth wings of young women and men ✨
January 8, 2026 at 10:13 PM
Given the bad cold that I've had for the past few days (in the midst of the Australian summer 🤦♀️), waking up to this email was particularly sweet...
Coming soon in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: our YOUMEM study on gender differences in motivations for joining youth wings of young women and men ✨
Coming soon in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: our YOUMEM study on gender differences in motivations for joining youth wings of young women and men ✨
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
An excellent collective study of the Portuguese populist radical right.
Chega: The New Portuguese Far Right
In the late 2010s, the Portuguese immunity to the far right came to a sudden end at the 2019 general elections, after the election of Chega’s leader – André Ventura – to the Assembly of the Republic. ...
www.routledge.com
January 5, 2026 at 11:20 AM
An excellent collective study of the Portuguese populist radical right.
Out today. 50 free copies available here: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/FDB9Z...
Latent populists activated? Party membership switching to the radical right
Populist radical right (PRR) parties are expanding their grassroots despite widespread membership decline elsewhere. Yet little is known about who joins them and the implications of recruitment fro...
www.tandfonline.com
December 30, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Out today. 50 free copies available here: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/FDB9Z...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🎄 Now if this isn't the perfect Christmas gift for scholars of elections! A fresh @cses.bsky.social Module 6 Advance Release for you all to analyze and explore!
Announcement: The Second Advance Release of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Module 6 dataset is now available for download! For more information, please see: cses.org/2025/12/16/m...
December 17, 2025 at 9:47 PM
🎄 Now if this isn't the perfect Christmas gift for scholars of elections! A fresh @cses.bsky.social Module 6 Advance Release for you all to analyze and explore!
While mainstream parties have been losing members for decades, populist radical right (PRR) parties keep expanding their grassroots. Is that growth driven mostly by political “newcomers,” or also by former members of other parties? And do these groups differ on core PRR traits?
December 17, 2025 at 11:13 PM
While mainstream parties have been losing members for decades, populist radical right (PRR) parties keep expanding their grassroots. Is that growth driven mostly by political “newcomers,” or also by former members of other parties? And do these groups differ on core PRR traits?
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🌟 PHD FELLOWSHIP ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
Doctoral student in Political Science, specialization in political economy and political behavior
Doctoral position in Political Science, specialization in political economy and political behavior
The Department of Political Science
web103.reachmee.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:54 AM
🌟 PHD FELLOWSHIP ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This is an amazing analysis of how Google Maps shapes restaurant ratings and choice! Bravo @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
How Google Maps quietly allocates survival across London’s restaurants - and how I built a dashboard to see through it
I wanted a dinner recommendation and got a research agenda instead. Using 13000+ restaurants, I rebuild its ratings with machine learning and map how algorithmic visibility actually distributes power.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:22 AM
This is an amazing analysis of how Google Maps shapes restaurant ratings and choice! Bravo @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
As Duncan says, this article was a lot of fun.
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century
The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …
www.sciencedirect.com
December 8, 2025 at 7:49 AM
As Duncan says, this article was a lot of fun.
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
This is super interesting: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
December 8, 2025 at 12:34 PM
This is super interesting: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century
The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …
www.sciencedirect.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:13 AM
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
I’ve never seen such a smooth parallel trend with such beautiful shaped lines.
And then PhD hits.
And then PhD hits.
Use of mental health medications in the population of Swedish PhD students is 40% higher than a matched sample by the fifth PhD year.
Be kind to PhD students. Don't take up PhD students you can't invest in. Alert prospective students of the reality of a PhD.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Be kind to PhD students. Don't take up PhD students you can't invest in. Alert prospective students of the reality of a PhD.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
December 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
I’ve never seen such a smooth parallel trend with such beautiful shaped lines.
And then PhD hits.
And then PhD hits.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This is pretty amazing. Read it.
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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December 3, 2025 at 9:36 AM
This is pretty amazing. Read it.
Excited to be in Gothenburg this week. Very grateful to
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
December 2, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Excited to be in Gothenburg this week. Very grateful to
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
„the importance of sample size stemmed from small effect sizes across studies (perhaps smaller than researchers may have anticipated), highlighting a tension between commonly used power calculi and determining what constitutes a “meaningful effect.“
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects:
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
academic.oup.com
November 30, 2025 at 3:57 PM
„the importance of sample size stemmed from small effect sizes across studies (perhaps smaller than researchers may have anticipated), highlighting a tension between commonly used power calculi and determining what constitutes a “meaningful effect.“
This debate brought me back to a great replication course I took in 2023 with @simonhix.bsky.social at @eui-eu.bsky.social. I’m learning a lot from both sides. Critique is welcome -- what we should avoid is turning disagreements into attacks on authors.
November 29, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This debate brought me back to a great replication course I took in 2023 with @simonhix.bsky.social at @eui-eu.bsky.social. I’m learning a lot from both sides. Critique is welcome -- what we should avoid is turning disagreements into attacks on authors.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨 We have a cool new ESRC PhD studentship opportunity on the topic of political persuasion for someone interested in campaigning, field experiments and/or computational methods @lsegovernment.bsky.social, in collaboration with
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab
LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab
www.lse.ac.uk
October 6, 2025 at 10:57 AM
🚨 We have a cool new ESRC PhD studentship opportunity on the topic of political persuasion for someone interested in campaigning, field experiments and/or computational methods @lsegovernment.bsky.social, in collaboration with
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...