Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
@hferrinholopes.bsky.social
Lecturer at Iscte-IUL & @uminho.bsky.social 🎓
I study how political parties adapt, endure, and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure — and how it affects party change, behavior and representation. 🗳️🔄🏛️
🔗 https://hugoferrinholopes.github.io/
I study how political parties adapt, endure, and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure — and how it affects party change, behavior and representation. 🗳️🔄🏛️
🔗 https://hugoferrinholopes.github.io/
Pinned
Fueled by coffee, lifted by friends: PhD done ✅🎓
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
A rare benefit of being awake in the middle of the night (day 10 of jetlag!): you get to see this drop into your mailbox.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
November 26, 2025 at 6:29 PM
A rare benefit of being awake in the middle of the night (day 10 of jetlag!): you get to see this drop into your mailbox.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
“We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections.”
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org
November 25, 2025 at 2:05 AM
“We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections.”
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🌟 JOB ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science PAR 2025/838
The Department of Political Science is an international academic environment that welcomes students, researchers and
web103.reachmee.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:06 AM
🌟 JOB ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨New genAI teaching material: an Electoral System Explorer built with Claude. It lets students see how votes translate to seats under different electoral systems. Try it here: claude.ai/public/artif.... Feedback, as always, is very much appreciated!
#poliski
#poliski
Electoral System Explorer - Interactive Voting & Gerrymandering Tool
Explore how electoral systems work with this interactive tool. Draw districts, adjust party support, and compare majoritarian vs proportional results.
claude.ai
November 25, 2025 at 9:48 AM
🚨New genAI teaching material: an Electoral System Explorer built with Claude. It lets students see how votes translate to seats under different electoral systems. Try it here: claude.ai/public/artif.... Feedback, as always, is very much appreciated!
#poliski
#poliski
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies?
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:49 PM
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
📻 Great new podcast on political behaviour - the last episode features my @lsegovernment.bsky.social colleague Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social on whether campaigns matter, Mamdani’s victory and the Dutch elections -
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
November 15, 2025 at 6:48 PM
📻 Great new podcast on political behaviour - the last episode features my @lsegovernment.bsky.social colleague Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social on whether campaigns matter, Mamdani’s victory and the Dutch elections -
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This plot is from a different, evil world.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 13, 2025 at 2:37 PM
This plot is from a different, evil world.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
50 years after Angola's independence, 44% of Angolans disagree with the removal of symbols of Portuguese colonialism, and 30% are in favor. We will publish today the results of polls in Portugal, Cape Verde, and Angola on the 50th anniversary of Portuguese decolonization.
November 11, 2025 at 10:49 AM
50 years after Angola's independence, 44% of Angolans disagree with the removal of symbols of Portuguese colonialism, and 30% are in favor. We will publish today the results of polls in Portugal, Cape Verde, and Angola on the 50th anniversary of Portuguese decolonization.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
How are contemporary cleavage structures stabilized in times of declining mass social and political organizations?
In this new paper with @davidattewell6.bsky.social @bjpols.bsky.social, we suggest that homogeneous social (educational) networks provide part of the answer.
tinyurl.com/49cs8jwp
In this new paper with @davidattewell6.bsky.social @bjpols.bsky.social, we suggest that homogeneous social (educational) networks provide part of the answer.
tinyurl.com/49cs8jwp
Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - Volume 55
tinyurl.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:28 AM
How are contemporary cleavage structures stabilized in times of declining mass social and political organizations?
In this new paper with @davidattewell6.bsky.social @bjpols.bsky.social, we suggest that homogeneous social (educational) networks provide part of the answer.
tinyurl.com/49cs8jwp
In this new paper with @davidattewell6.bsky.social @bjpols.bsky.social, we suggest that homogeneous social (educational) networks provide part of the answer.
tinyurl.com/49cs8jwp
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
November 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
— Call for papers —
International Conference "Democracy Under Siege: Global Fascism, Populism, and Illiberalism", Institute of Social Science, University of Lisbon, June 18-20, 2026. Deadline for proposals of papers, panels, "meet the author", and "research projects" sessions, January 31, 2026.
International Conference "Democracy Under Siege: Global Fascism, Populism, and Illiberalism", Institute of Social Science, University of Lisbon, June 18-20, 2026. Deadline for proposals of papers, panels, "meet the author", and "research projects" sessions, January 31, 2026.
Democracy Under Siege: Global Fascism, Populism, Illiberalism // Eight Convention of the International Association for Comparative Fascist Studies // Org. ComFas | ICS - ULisboa
ICS-ULisboa / Lisbon / 18-20 June 2026
The debate on the similarities and differences between fascism, authoritarianism, and populism has been present in political discourse since the first half of th...
forms.gle
October 30, 2025 at 11:34 AM
— Call for papers —
International Conference "Democracy Under Siege: Global Fascism, Populism, and Illiberalism", Institute of Social Science, University of Lisbon, June 18-20, 2026. Deadline for proposals of papers, panels, "meet the author", and "research projects" sessions, January 31, 2026.
International Conference "Democracy Under Siege: Global Fascism, Populism, and Illiberalism", Institute of Social Science, University of Lisbon, June 18-20, 2026. Deadline for proposals of papers, panels, "meet the author", and "research projects" sessions, January 31, 2026.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Just prepped this slide on party membership numbers for a class. Shout if you think/know I've got it wrong as plenty of time to change it. PS I suspect the Tory figure is below 100,000 now but can't prove it, of course. PPS If anyone has an official/updated figure for Plaid, I'd love to know it!
October 29, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Just prepped this slide on party membership numbers for a class. Shout if you think/know I've got it wrong as plenty of time to change it. PS I suspect the Tory figure is below 100,000 now but can't prove it, of course. PPS If anyone has an official/updated figure for Plaid, I'd love to know it!
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu
October 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
German study shows how far right sets agenda thanks to mainstream parties reshaping their communications to respond to what are initially fringe issues, boosting the spread of these ideas and signalling to voters that these ideas and stances were legitimate
shorturl.at/OFfig
shorturl.at/OFfig
German far right setting agenda as opponents amplify its ideas, study finds
Normalisation of far-right stances likely to affect success of such parties at ballot boxes across Europe, say researchers
www.theguardian.com
October 18, 2025 at 7:48 AM
German study shows how far right sets agenda thanks to mainstream parties reshaping their communications to respond to what are initially fringe issues, boosting the spread of these ideas and signalling to voters that these ideas and stances were legitimate
shorturl.at/OFfig
shorturl.at/OFfig
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Surprised at the responses to this. People need to understand that parties and vote choices are endogenous to the electoral system (read Duverger!). So a change like this would not mean 20% of voters not being respected. Parties would merge and voters would be strategic.
NL needs an electoral threshold, eg. 4% (as in Sweden). It would encourage smaller parties to merge, voters to coordinate around medium and larger parties, and make coalition formation easier, governments more stable, and improve governability overall.
Come on guys, Europe needs you to do this!
Come on guys, Europe needs you to do this!
The Peilingwijzer poll of polls for the Netherlands has been updated to include the latest poll of Ipsos I&O.
📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Source Ipsos I&O: https://is.gd/35hl01
📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Source Ipsos I&O: https://is.gd/35hl01
October 17, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Surprised at the responses to this. People need to understand that parties and vote choices are endogenous to the electoral system (read Duverger!). So a change like this would not mean 20% of voters not being respected. Parties would merge and voters would be strategic.
NL needs an electoral threshold, eg. 4% (as in Sweden). It would encourage smaller parties to merge, voters to coordinate around medium and larger parties, and make coalition formation easier, governments more stable, and improve governability overall.
Come on guys, Europe needs you to do this!
Come on guys, Europe needs you to do this!
The Peilingwijzer poll of polls for the Netherlands has been updated to include the latest poll of Ipsos I&O.
📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Source Ipsos I&O: https://is.gd/35hl01
📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Source Ipsos I&O: https://is.gd/35hl01
October 17, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
October 7, 2025 at 11:28 AM
@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Fueled by coffee, lifted by friends: PhD done ✅🎓
October 1, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Fueled by coffee, lifted by friends: PhD done ✅🎓
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
Debating (and challenging) the concept of "Competitive authoritarian" as a regime type. Opening session of the MA in Politics, ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon.
October 1, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Debating (and challenging) the concept of "Competitive authoritarian" as a regime type. Opening session of the MA in Politics, ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
@epsjournal.bsky.social has just published the articles of a special issue on "Political parties and youth’s political (under) representation", with an introduction by Daniel Stockemer (@uottawa.ca )
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
🧵
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
🧵
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41304-025-00521-z🧵
September 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
@epsjournal.bsky.social has just published the articles of a special issue on "Political parties and youth’s political (under) representation", with an introduction by Daniel Stockemer (@uottawa.ca )
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
🧵
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
🧵
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨New article out 🚨
Party youth wings are often described as partners that trade votes for influence with their senior parties. But how do their own members see it?
In this article I examine whether they think their organizations' mission is to influence the senior party or to support it.
Party youth wings are often described as partners that trade votes for influence with their senior parties. But how do their own members see it?
In this article I examine whether they think their organizations' mission is to influence the senior party or to support it.
Influence or support? Member perspectives on youth wings in political parties - European Political Science
Political parties maintain connections with various sub-organisations to engage different segments of society. Common among these are party youth wings. These relationships are often described as mutual, where votes are exchanged for policies. However, little research delves into how members of these sub-organisations perceive their roles in relation to the senior party. Based on a web survey of approximately 3000 respondents, this study investigates the views of youth wing members within Swedish political parties. Specifically, it explores whether members believe their youth wing’s primary role should be to influence or support the senior party. Drawing on theories of political engagement incentives, it examines the connection between members’ political and career motivations and their perceptions of these roles. Results suggest that those with career-oriented incentives tend to view the youth wing as supportive, while politically motivated members prioritise influencing the senior party. This research contributes to our understanding of the complex dynamics within political parties and their affiliated organisations, shedding light on how individual motivations shape organisational roles.
link.springer.com
September 26, 2025 at 6:33 AM
🚨New article out 🚨
Party youth wings are often described as partners that trade votes for influence with their senior parties. But how do their own members see it?
In this article I examine whether they think their organizations' mission is to influence the senior party or to support it.
Party youth wings are often described as partners that trade votes for influence with their senior parties. But how do their own members see it?
In this article I examine whether they think their organizations' mission is to influence the senior party or to support it.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
The @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar Series will be back for the '25/26 academic year, as usually on Thursdays, 4-5pm, in CBG 4.17. Let us know if you are external and want to attend in-person, or join remotely on Zoom. More info here: www.lse.ac.uk/government/r...
Political Behaviour
The Political Behaviour research group brings together faculty and students from across the LSE to share research on public opinion, voting and elections.
www.lse.ac.uk
September 11, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar Series will be back for the '25/26 academic year, as usually on Thursdays, 4-5pm, in CBG 4.17. Let us know if you are external and want to attend in-person, or join remotely on Zoom. More info here: www.lse.ac.uk/government/r...