Mike Beuoy
@inpredict.bsky.social
actuary
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
I finally got around to formalizing my Kelly betting-based method of evaluating time-updating probabilistic forecasts (e.g. in-game win probability, election models, etc.) in a paper.
It is now up on arXiv.
1/
It is now up on arXiv.
1/
February 13, 2026 at 4:57 PM
I finally got around to formalizing my Kelly betting-based method of evaluating time-updating probabilistic forecasts (e.g. in-game win probability, election models, etc.) in a paper.
It is now up on arXiv.
1/
It is now up on arXiv.
1/
Bondi must have heard there are a lot of people in jeopardy in Culver City.
Wait one damn minute, I need to speak on this.
@kamlager-dove.house.gov read AG Pam Bondi the riot act over the DOJ scrubbing data on right wing extremists from the website.
Bondi’s response: “Her district includes Culver City and she’s not talking about… stopping crime in her district.”
1/2
@kamlager-dove.house.gov read AG Pam Bondi the riot act over the DOJ scrubbing data on right wing extremists from the website.
Bondi’s response: “Her district includes Culver City and she’s not talking about… stopping crime in her district.”
1/2
February 12, 2026 at 8:42 PM
Bondi must have heard there are a lot of people in jeopardy in Culver City.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl champions
February 9, 2026 at 3:27 AM
Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl champions
It was a long 1, but absolute coaching malpractice to not go for it there given the game situation.
February 9, 2026 at 2:00 AM
It was a long 1, but absolute coaching malpractice to not go for it there given the game situation.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what
I stand with County Executive Calvin Ball as he signs emergency legislation today prohibiting privately owned buildings from being used as ICE detention centers.
Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Howard County chose dignity, accountability, and its people. Tune into our event now:
bit.ly/4a2VtHw
Redirecting...
bit.ly
February 7, 2026 at 2:34 PM
I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what
After dark Wednesday minutiae:
The average time elapsed between a missed shot and a rebound* in the NBA is holding steady at around 2.5 seconds.
*as recorded in the play by play logs
The average time elapsed between a missed shot and a rebound* in the NBA is holding steady at around 2.5 seconds.
*as recorded in the play by play logs
February 5, 2026 at 5:24 AM
After dark Wednesday minutiae:
The average time elapsed between a missed shot and a rebound* in the NBA is holding steady at around 2.5 seconds.
*as recorded in the play by play logs
The average time elapsed between a missed shot and a rebound* in the NBA is holding steady at around 2.5 seconds.
*as recorded in the play by play logs
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Celebrating the power, progress, and possibility of girls and women in sports today and always 🧡
Happy National Girls and Women in Sports Day!
#NGWSD
Happy National Girls and Women in Sports Day!
#NGWSD
February 4, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Celebrating the power, progress, and possibility of girls and women in sports today and always 🧡
Happy National Girls and Women in Sports Day!
#NGWSD
Happy National Girls and Women in Sports Day!
#NGWSD
PSA for any Marx Brothers fans: Animal Crackers is now in the public domain. You can find a very nicely restored cut on YouTube.
It restores several jokes/gags that were removed from the official released version.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuN...
It restores several jokes/gags that were removed from the official released version.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuN...
Animal Crackers (1930) THE MARX BROTHERS 🍕 MADCAP COMEDY 🍕FULL MOVIE
YouTube video by PizzaFlix
www.youtube.com
February 2, 2026 at 3:46 PM
PSA for any Marx Brothers fans: Animal Crackers is now in the public domain. You can find a very nicely restored cut on YouTube.
It restores several jokes/gags that were removed from the official released version.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuN...
It restores several jokes/gags that were removed from the official released version.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuN...
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
I wrote about my childhood friend Alexi Pretti. Please read it and share it and remember him as a human being. @theverge.com
I grew up with Alex Pretti
The kind-hearted ICU nurse shot by ICE agents was my childhood best friend.
www.theverge.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:45 PM
I wrote about my childhood friend Alexi Pretti. Please read it and share it and remember him as a human being. @theverge.com
That differentiation (finding a tangent line) and integration (calculating area under a curve) turned out to be inverses of each other is one of the cooler plot twists in the history of mathematics.
January 27, 2026 at 4:41 PM
That differentiation (finding a tangent line) and integration (calculating area under a curve) turned out to be inverses of each other is one of the cooler plot twists in the history of mathematics.
That was….not a good time for a false start.
January 20, 2026 at 4:05 AM
That was….not a good time for a false start.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Tell me more about “taking the points” after that Mendoza draw.
January 20, 2026 at 3:38 AM
Tell me more about “taking the points” after that Mendoza draw.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Every Caleb Williams play
January 19, 2026 at 2:46 AM
Every Caleb Williams play
Saw Marty Supreme last weekend, and was inspired to do a comp of serving advantage across multiple sports.
Tennis 🎾: it's an advantage to serve
Volleyball 🏐: it's a disadvantage to serve
Table Tennis 🏓: nearly 50/50, based on what limited data I was able to find
Tennis 🎾: it's an advantage to serve
Volleyball 🏐: it's a disadvantage to serve
Table Tennis 🏓: nearly 50/50, based on what limited data I was able to find
January 16, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Saw Marty Supreme last weekend, and was inspired to do a comp of serving advantage across multiple sports.
Tennis 🎾: it's an advantage to serve
Volleyball 🏐: it's a disadvantage to serve
Table Tennis 🏓: nearly 50/50, based on what limited data I was able to find
Tennis 🎾: it's an advantage to serve
Volleyball 🏐: it's a disadvantage to serve
Table Tennis 🏓: nearly 50/50, based on what limited data I was able to find
The Niners missing that extra point providing a self contained argument for why they should have gone for two.
January 12, 2026 at 12:34 AM
The Niners missing that extra point providing a self contained argument for why they should have gone for two.
Has anyone run numbers on when teams should let their opponent score?
What’s the typical TD rate when you’ve got 1st and Goal on the 1?
What’s the typical TD rate when you’ve got 1st and Goal on the 1?
January 11, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Has anyone run numbers on when teams should let their opponent score?
What’s the typical TD rate when you’ve got 1st and Goal on the 1?
What’s the typical TD rate when you’ve got 1st and Goal on the 1?
Cool study comparing in-game win probability across multiple sports, and which sports stay within the reach the longest.
In the NFL, the fat lady sings the latest
A fun post comparing win probability models by pct of time into a game
operations.nfl.com/gameday/anal...
A fun post comparing win probability models by pct of time into a game
operations.nfl.com/gameday/anal...
January 11, 2026 at 5:48 PM
Cool study comparing in-game win probability across multiple sports, and which sports stay within the reach the longest.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Great work everyone
January 10, 2026 at 12:51 AM
Great work everyone
I don't know if I've ever seen a pick 6 on the 1st play from scrimmage.
January 10, 2026 at 12:52 AM
I don't know if I've ever seen a pick 6 on the 1st play from scrimmage.
Bell’s theorem is amazing because it was like a perfectly executed judo move.
It took Einstein’s original thought experiment, which was intended to illustrate the absurdity of QM, and instead showed you either have to accept:
1. God *does* play dice
OR
2. “Spooky” action at a distance
It took Einstein’s original thought experiment, which was intended to illustrate the absurdity of QM, and instead showed you either have to accept:
1. God *does* play dice
OR
2. “Spooky” action at a distance
January 4, 2026 at 12:38 AM
Bell’s theorem is amazing because it was like a perfectly executed judo move.
It took Einstein’s original thought experiment, which was intended to illustrate the absurdity of QM, and instead showed you either have to accept:
1. God *does* play dice
OR
2. “Spooky” action at a distance
It took Einstein’s original thought experiment, which was intended to illustrate the absurdity of QM, and instead showed you either have to accept:
1. God *does* play dice
OR
2. “Spooky” action at a distance
It’s almost the 65th anniversary of The Great Rose Bowl Hoax, in which a group of CalTech students switched the Washington cheer team’s card system so that their cards spelled “CALTECH” instead of “HUSKIES”.
December 31, 2025 at 10:37 PM
It’s almost the 65th anniversary of The Great Rose Bowl Hoax, in which a group of CalTech students switched the Washington cheer team’s card system so that their cards spelled “CALTECH” instead of “HUSKIES”.
That was, quantifiably, one of the best slate of Christmas games since the NBA standardized the schedule to 5 games in 2008:
December 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
That was, quantifiably, one of the best slate of Christmas games since the NBA standardized the schedule to 5 games in 2008:
Playing around with rotation data prior to tomorrow's semi-final games, and thinking about new stats to add to @evollve next season.
Here is Texas A&M's success rate by rotation, where rotation is specified by the rotation position of their setter Maddie Waak:
Here is Texas A&M's success rate by rotation, where rotation is specified by the rotation position of their setter Maddie Waak:
December 17, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Playing around with rotation data prior to tomorrow's semi-final games, and thinking about new stats to add to @evollve next season.
Here is Texas A&M's success rate by rotation, where rotation is specified by the rotation position of their setter Maddie Waak:
Here is Texas A&M's success rate by rotation, where rotation is specified by the rotation position of their setter Maddie Waak: