Jack Meyer
@jackbmeyer.bsky.social
Economic Historian & Political Economist Studying Institutions, Innovation, and Intellectual Property. MSc LSE Econ History, MPhil Student on leave from Oxford Econ (RT!=E)
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Jack Meyer
@jackbmeyer.bsky.social
· Nov 9
AI Might Not Be Taking Your Job Anytime Soon
But It’s Making It a Whole Lot Harder to Find a New One
open.substack.com
I've been thinking about artificial intelligence and the job market a lot recently, so I wrote a piece on what I see as the most immediate economic threat posed by generative AI (and it's not automation):
AI Might Not Be Taking Your Job Anytime Soon open.substack.com/pub/jackbmey...
AI Might Not Be Taking Your Job Anytime Soon open.substack.com/pub/jackbmey...
Reposted by Jack Meyer
US data center construction inched up to a new record high in data released today, exceeding a $42B annualized rate (and this only includes the data center facilities, not the expensive computers within)
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
January 21, 2026 at 5:07 PM
US data center construction inched up to a new record high in data released today, exceeding a $42B annualized rate (and this only includes the data center facilities, not the expensive computers within)
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
Some good and bad in the budget, but Vermont's most pressing concern as far as state expenditures should be growing revenue against an aging tax base below replacement. We're a few years out from a fiscal wall unless we can attract more young professionals to the state.
Republican Gov. Phil Scott presented lawmakers Tuesday with a $9.4 billion state budget that would wean the state off pandemic-era spending by tamping down on new government expenditures.
Gov. Phil Scott proposes $9.4B budget that seeks to wean Vermont off pandemic-era spending
Republican Gov. Phil Scott presented lawmakers Tuesday with a $9.4 billion state budget that would wean the state off pandemic-era spending by tamping down on new government expenditures.
www.vermontpublic.org
January 21, 2026 at 4:43 PM
Some good and bad in the budget, but Vermont's most pressing concern as far as state expenditures should be growing revenue against an aging tax base below replacement. We're a few years out from a fiscal wall unless we can attract more young professionals to the state.
Amid all the noise it’s important to remember that no matter how you index historical prices $700 billion for Greenland is decidedly the worst deal in the history of US territorial acquisition
January 20, 2026 at 9:25 PM
Amid all the noise it’s important to remember that no matter how you index historical prices $700 billion for Greenland is decidedly the worst deal in the history of US territorial acquisition
The problem: LLMs undermine the efficacy of cover letters and screening questions as a costly signal of applicant skill and effort in the hiring process, such that they lose their informational content and no longer reliably communicate applicant quality.
January 15, 2026 at 5:56 PM
The problem: LLMs undermine the efficacy of cover letters and screening questions as a costly signal of applicant skill and effort in the hiring process, such that they lose their informational content and no longer reliably communicate applicant quality.
Reposted by Jack Meyer
Breaking News: The EPA will stop considering lives saved when setting pollution limits and instead calculate only the cost to businesses.
E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved by Limiting Air Pollution
In a reversal, the agency plans to calculate only the cost to industry when setting pollution limits, and not the monetary value of saving human lives, documents show.
nyti.ms
January 12, 2026 at 6:39 PM
Breaking News: The EPA will stop considering lives saved when setting pollution limits and instead calculate only the cost to businesses.
A regional beer market consolidation case study; The Shed was a local brewpub acquired by Otter Creek in 2011, owned by Long Trail as of 2010, acquired by Mass Bay in 2022, merged with Finestkind to form Barrel One Collective in 2024, now the largest craft brewer in New England
January 11, 2026 at 3:33 PM
A regional beer market consolidation case study; The Shed was a local brewpub acquired by Otter Creek in 2011, owned by Long Trail as of 2010, acquired by Mass Bay in 2022, merged with Finestkind to form Barrel One Collective in 2024, now the largest craft brewer in New England
Reposted by Jack Meyer
I have no idea what's going on. And I will be vindicated by history.
January 5, 2026 at 4:13 PM
I have no idea what's going on. And I will be vindicated by history.
Reposted by Jack Meyer
this is all very confusing for those of us who thought that fascist regimes were ideologically coherent, tactically consistent, and didn’t launch military attacks on other countries without a worked-out plan of exactly what to do next
January 5, 2026 at 5:20 PM
this is all very confusing for those of us who thought that fascist regimes were ideologically coherent, tactically consistent, and didn’t launch military attacks on other countries without a worked-out plan of exactly what to do next
Despite my longstanding skepticism of constructivist IR theory, oil being framed as the explicit objective in Venezuela is completely detached from material state interests and serves more as a symbolic obsession embedded deep in the American political consciousness
January 5, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Despite my longstanding skepticism of constructivist IR theory, oil being framed as the explicit objective in Venezuela is completely detached from material state interests and serves more as a symbolic obsession embedded deep in the American political consciousness
Reposted by Jack Meyer
yep. i can identify any number of structural issues but at the end of the day the basic problem is the republican party. this has been apparent for at least 20 years. it is also an incredibly unpopular observation to make among “serious” people.
Right.
If you want a good explanation of why the American system of government worked well enough for 200 years and then suddenly stopped, it's because Republicans in Congress suddenly started letting their partisan interests COMPLETELY override their institutional interests
If you want a good explanation of why the American system of government worked well enough for 200 years and then suddenly stopped, it's because Republicans in Congress suddenly started letting their partisan interests COMPLETELY override their institutional interests
a lot of problems wouldn't exist if we had a congress with even an ounce of self interest
January 4, 2026 at 11:52 PM
yep. i can identify any number of structural issues but at the end of the day the basic problem is the republican party. this has been apparent for at least 20 years. it is also an incredibly unpopular observation to make among “serious” people.
My short review of Two Paths to Prosperity: I don’t find the affirmative case or causal identification of the ‘Great Bifurcation’ very compelling or sufficiently separated from other contemporaneous developments or even the exogenous and geographic factors discussed
January 4, 2026 at 3:28 PM
My short review of Two Paths to Prosperity: I don’t find the affirmative case or causal identification of the ‘Great Bifurcation’ very compelling or sufficiently separated from other contemporaneous developments or even the exogenous and geographic factors discussed
Looking back on the last half century of U.S. regime change interventions and concluding that we should try it again, but closer to home
January 3, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Looking back on the last half century of U.S. regime change interventions and concluding that we should try it again, but closer to home
New Institutionalists on Christmas be like: “I can’t wait for Douglass North to come down the chimney with his bundle of institutions to deliver self-enforcing credible commitments and reduced transaction costs”
December 25, 2025 at 2:25 PM
New Institutionalists on Christmas be like: “I can’t wait for Douglass North to come down the chimney with his bundle of institutions to deliver self-enforcing credible commitments and reduced transaction costs”
Reposted by Jack Meyer
personally getting very irritated by the unbelievable arrogance of the data boys
when we said “defer electoral strategy to the actual politicians running for actual offices” we meant “after calculating wins above replacement somehow”
December 20, 2025 at 10:18 PM
personally getting very irritated by the unbelievable arrogance of the data boys
Reposted by Jack Meyer
it is 2022. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2023. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2024. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2025. I am watching...
it is 2023. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2024. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2025. I am watching...
December 19, 2025 at 11:21 PM
it is 2022. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2023. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2024. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2025. I am watching...
it is 2023. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2024. I am watching people yell about the economic data & the vibecession discourse
it is 2025. I am watching...
Reposted by Jack Meyer
Growth of real wage (purchasing power) has continued to be strong,* and broad-based, even as nominal wage growth has slowed.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
December 19, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Growth of real wage (purchasing power) has continued to be strong,* and broad-based, even as nominal wage growth has slowed.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
Reposted by Jack Meyer
New working paper 🚨🚨🚨
What was the origin of modern economic growth?
Joel Mokyr had a Nobel winning answer - growth took off when science and technology began to reinforce each other
But can we test this quantitatively?
This paper does so – read more ⬇️ 🧵
What was the origin of modern economic growth?
Joel Mokyr had a Nobel winning answer - growth took off when science and technology began to reinforce each other
But can we test this quantitatively?
This paper does so – read more ⬇️ 🧵
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
New working paper 🚨🚨🚨
What was the origin of modern economic growth?
Joel Mokyr had a Nobel winning answer - growth took off when science and technology began to reinforce each other
But can we test this quantitatively?
This paper does so – read more ⬇️ 🧵
What was the origin of modern economic growth?
Joel Mokyr had a Nobel winning answer - growth took off when science and technology began to reinforce each other
But can we test this quantitatively?
This paper does so – read more ⬇️ 🧵
Like a lot of innovation driven growth, it’s looking like we're headed towards an employment polarization problem, with AI job creation concentrated at the high and low ends of the human capital and income distribution
December 19, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Like a lot of innovation driven growth, it’s looking like we're headed towards an employment polarization problem, with AI job creation concentrated at the high and low ends of the human capital and income distribution
Reposted by Jack Meyer
All research is exploratory if you’re confused enough
December 19, 2025 at 8:01 AM
All research is exploratory if you’re confused enough
Reposted by Jack Meyer
it is extremely funny that the American populace unironically treated the era of seeing of "help wanted" signs as a bad sign
I think the direction of travel matters. from 2020-22 we had a) the most generous welfare state in US history b) the tightest labor market in 60 years, and now both are gone and we are right back to ~2014 ish job market except interest rates are high
December 19, 2025 at 3:34 PM
it is extremely funny that the American populace unironically treated the era of seeing of "help wanted" signs as a bad sign
Plausible explanation for the deteriorating economic sentiment puzzle; for entry-level workers the problem hasn’t necessarily been fewer jobs, but difficulty matching to existing vacancies. Now, as the labor market cools, those frictions are starting to appear more in the headline employment numbers
December 19, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Plausible explanation for the deteriorating economic sentiment puzzle; for entry-level workers the problem hasn’t necessarily been fewer jobs, but difficulty matching to existing vacancies. Now, as the labor market cools, those frictions are starting to appear more in the headline employment numbers
Reposted by Jack Meyer
I feel like one of the most underrated explanations for what's happening right now in global politics is that almost everyone has lost their minds.
November 30, 2025 at 2:59 AM
I feel like one of the most underrated explanations for what's happening right now in global politics is that almost everyone has lost their minds.
Stadiums offer an interesting look into the structure of beer markets from brewers and distributors, to vendors and consumers. It’s no surprise a major figure in antitrust like Lina Khan would have an issue like the price of beer in a captured market on her agenda. open.substack.com/pub/jackbmey...
Working Draft: Beer Market Structure
Capture, Concentration, and Anti-Trust
open.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Stadiums offer an interesting look into the structure of beer markets from brewers and distributors, to vendors and consumers. It’s no surprise a major figure in antitrust like Lina Khan would have an issue like the price of beer in a captured market on her agenda. open.substack.com/pub/jackbmey...
Reposted by Jack Meyer
ChatGPT has fallen
millions of students must learn
millions of students must learn
November 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
ChatGPT has fallen
millions of students must learn
millions of students must learn
Reposted by Jack Meyer
