Justin Leinaweaver
@jleinaweaver.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Political Science at Drury University
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Science is a <method> for understanding natural phenomena.
The political behavior of human beings & the institutions they design are natural phenomena.
What folks mean is that the confidence intervals on our point estimates are larger because humans are humans.
That doesn't mean it's not science.
The political behavior of human beings & the institutions they design are natural phenomena.
What folks mean is that the confidence intervals on our point estimates are larger because humans are humans.
That doesn't mean it's not science.
December 10, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Science is a <method> for understanding natural phenomena.
The political behavior of human beings & the institutions they design are natural phenomena.
What folks mean is that the confidence intervals on our point estimates are larger because humans are humans.
That doesn't mean it's not science.
The political behavior of human beings & the institutions they design are natural phenomena.
What folks mean is that the confidence intervals on our point estimates are larger because humans are humans.
That doesn't mean it's not science.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
If a discipline isn't science because you can't make point predictions I've got some bad news about meteorology, medicine, pharmacy, biology, and a bunch of other physical sciences.
December 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
If a discipline isn't science because you can't make point predictions I've got some bad news about meteorology, medicine, pharmacy, biology, and a bunch of other physical sciences.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
One problem that political science has is that people who have no idea what science is make very confident but wrong assertions about what counts as science and what doesn't.
December 10, 2025 at 7:53 PM
One problem that political science has is that people who have no idea what science is make very confident but wrong assertions about what counts as science and what doesn't.
God help me and scrub my feed of hot takes like this nonsense. I'm just trying to get some grading done.
December 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
God help me and scrub my feed of hot takes like this nonsense. I'm just trying to get some grading done.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
One of the many reasons AI can't produce good writing is it can't hate its own writing. It can't think to itself "Maybe I'm illiterate" during the writing process. And that's essential
December 9, 2025 at 8:45 PM
One of the many reasons AI can't produce good writing is it can't hate its own writing. It can't think to itself "Maybe I'm illiterate" during the writing process. And that's essential
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Witch: You will be one of the most famous Chief Justices ever.
Roberts: Wow!
Witch: Oh, not in that way.
Roberts: Wow!
Witch: Oh, not in that way.
December 8, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Witch: You will be one of the most famous Chief Justices ever.
Roberts: Wow!
Witch: Oh, not in that way.
Roberts: Wow!
Witch: Oh, not in that way.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Calvinball is the wrong analogy for Roberts' long term judicial project. The right analogy is "Heads I win, tails you lose." He's constructing a system where Republican presidents can do whatever they want, but Democratic presidents are subject to strict checks and balances.
The practical effect of overturning Humphrey’s will be that Republican presidents can stack the formerly independent agencies with their copartisans and SCOTUS will be cool with everything they do but when a Dem POTUS does the same Roberts et al will declare all those agencies’ actions unlawful.
In a memo John Roberts wrote just 4 yrs out of law school, he said the “time may be ripe to reconsider the existence” of independent agencies & bring them back into the executive branch. Now he’s poised to end what he has long called “a constitutional anomaly.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/u...
December 8, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Calvinball is the wrong analogy for Roberts' long term judicial project. The right analogy is "Heads I win, tails you lose." He's constructing a system where Republican presidents can do whatever they want, but Democratic presidents are subject to strict checks and balances.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
During ratification of the 14th Amendment, senators discussed whether the Citizenship Clause would apply to the children of immigrants and resoundingly concluded that it did. The text and history all point in one direction and the counter-arguments are patently fraudulent. I am going to lose my mind
The evidence is the text. All you have to do is read the Constitution.
December 7, 2025 at 7:19 PM
During ratification of the 14th Amendment, senators discussed whether the Citizenship Clause would apply to the children of immigrants and resoundingly concluded that it did. The text and history all point in one direction and the counter-arguments are patently fraudulent. I am going to lose my mind
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
The Constitution is very straightforward on birthright citizenship. There's no ambiguity in the language, no other plausible interpretation.
The fact that this is a public discussion at all, and that the Supreme Court is taking it up, is on its own anti-constitutional bullshit.
Read the text👇
The fact that this is a public discussion at all, and that the Supreme Court is taking it up, is on its own anti-constitutional bullshit.
Read the text👇
It starts with knowing the truth. Don’t allow yourselves to be gaslit into believing this is a real question.
December 6, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The Constitution is very straightforward on birthright citizenship. There's no ambiguity in the language, no other plausible interpretation.
The fact that this is a public discussion at all, and that the Supreme Court is taking it up, is on its own anti-constitutional bullshit.
Read the text👇
The fact that this is a public discussion at all, and that the Supreme Court is taking it up, is on its own anti-constitutional bullshit.
Read the text👇
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
The Donald Trump award for being Donald Trump. This is a participation trophy for being Donald Trump.
December 5, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The Donald Trump award for being Donald Trump. This is a participation trophy for being Donald Trump.
Aww man, you got some kakistocracy in my oligarchy and now we may have to start over.
December 5, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Aww man, you got some kakistocracy in my oligarchy and now we may have to start over.
Do you think they convinced him to not murder any fishermen in international waters during the ceremony? You know, for the bad optics?
“President Donald Trump will take the stage at Friday’s World Cup final draw ceremony at the Kennedy Center in Washington where he will accept FIFA’s inaugural peace prize, according to a draft of the run-of-show obtained by POLITICO.”
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
Trump will have speaking role at World Cup draw
President Donald Trump will feature prominently at Friday’s Kennedy Center ceremony and participate in a ceremonial ball draw with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Mark ...
www.politico.com
December 5, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Do you think they convinced him to not murder any fishermen in international waters during the ceremony? You know, for the bad optics?
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
This is really important. The problem with the Roberts Court is not that they are conservative. It's that they are bad judges.
It's not just liberal judges they're doing this to. They're doing this to plenty of conservative judges too; judges who actually spent weeks and weeks poring over the details and with their arms deep in the guts of thousands of pages of documents and days of testimony.
Those judges are pissed.
Those judges are pissed.
December 4, 2025 at 11:46 PM
This is really important. The problem with the Roberts Court is not that they are conservative. It's that they are bad judges.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
If you see John Roberts in person, be sure to tell him he’s a worse Chief Justice than Roger Taney (pronounced “tawny”). That’s a nerd burn that will hit him where it counts.
December 5, 2025 at 12:23 AM
If you see John Roberts in person, be sure to tell him he’s a worse Chief Justice than Roger Taney (pronounced “tawny”). That’s a nerd burn that will hit him where it counts.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Just in last 48 hours:
-President pardons Honduran prez serving 45 years for conspiring to smuggle cocaine to US
-BUT ALSO on verge of war w/VZ based on unsupported claims its govt. is smuggling cocaine to US
-DefSec openly committing war crimes
-Trump envoy selling out Ukraine for deals with Russia
-President pardons Honduran prez serving 45 years for conspiring to smuggle cocaine to US
-BUT ALSO on verge of war w/VZ based on unsupported claims its govt. is smuggling cocaine to US
-DefSec openly committing war crimes
-Trump envoy selling out Ukraine for deals with Russia
November 29, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Just in last 48 hours:
-President pardons Honduran prez serving 45 years for conspiring to smuggle cocaine to US
-BUT ALSO on verge of war w/VZ based on unsupported claims its govt. is smuggling cocaine to US
-DefSec openly committing war crimes
-Trump envoy selling out Ukraine for deals with Russia
-President pardons Honduran prez serving 45 years for conspiring to smuggle cocaine to US
-BUT ALSO on verge of war w/VZ based on unsupported claims its govt. is smuggling cocaine to US
-DefSec openly committing war crimes
-Trump envoy selling out Ukraine for deals with Russia
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
this is just gutter racism
Stephen Miller is now arguing that assimilation is fundamentally impossible and that certain cultures are not compatible with Western civilization
November 28, 2025 at 12:59 PM
this is just gutter racism
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
This point about the historical significance of literacy is a really important one.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/set-tr...
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/set-tr...
I Set A Trap To Catch Students Cheating With AI. The Result Was Deflating
"I am no stranger to students trying to cut corners by copying and pasting from Wikipedia, but the introduction of generative AI has enabled them to cheat in startling new ways."
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 2:01 PM
This point about the historical significance of literacy is a really important one.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/set-tr...
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/set-tr...
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
It’s blowing my mind that schools, universities, public services would run headlong into this. We spent 15 years documenting black boxes. This is a black box in a black hole!
I don't understand how anyone can watch how blatantly Grok is manipulated to answer the way ownership desires it to and then act like the other LLM chatbots couldn't possibly be similarly but less obviously compromised to produce responses in whatever way corporate interests and priorities dictate.
November 23, 2025 at 11:16 PM
It’s blowing my mind that schools, universities, public services would run headlong into this. We spent 15 years documenting black boxes. This is a black box in a black hole!
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Journalist challenge: Use “Machine Learning” when you mean machine learning and “LLM” when you mean LLM. Ditch “AI” as a catch-all term, it’s not useful for readers and it helps companies trying to confuse the public by obscuring the roles played by different technologies. 🧪
November 22, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Journalist challenge: Use “Machine Learning” when you mean machine learning and “LLM” when you mean LLM. Ditch “AI” as a catch-all term, it’s not useful for readers and it helps companies trying to confuse the public by obscuring the roles played by different technologies. 🧪
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
I double-dog dare any of these tech guys to read a book, actually read it
November 19, 2025 at 12:24 AM
I double-dog dare any of these tech guys to read a book, actually read it
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
If you relatively recently started studying politics and think you have discovered a simple trick to generate a perpetual majority party and then win elections forever, and a large portion of the world is just too stupid to see it, I would ask you to consider that you might be overconfident.
November 18, 2025 at 2:45 PM
If you relatively recently started studying politics and think you have discovered a simple trick to generate a perpetual majority party and then win elections forever, and a large portion of the world is just too stupid to see it, I would ask you to consider that you might be overconfident.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Measuring the Ideology of Political Parties Worldwide
vrollet.github.io/files/Ideolo...
vrollet.github.io/files/Ideolo...
November 18, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Measuring the Ideology of Political Parties Worldwide
vrollet.github.io/files/Ideolo...
vrollet.github.io/files/Ideolo...
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
Imagine organizing your whole life around a movie whose central point you missed.
Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino "also revered Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein's 1959 military sci-fi classic about an interstellar war between humans and alien bugs - a book his sister says he still reads to this day."
An endless amount of deranged details in this interview with Greg Bovino's sister, but most notably that his uncle produced the Jack Nicholson movie The Border and the depiction of the agent as corrupt radicalized him as a 12-yr-old.
"Since then, he was like, 'Dude, I want to do Border Patrol.'"
"Since then, he was like, 'Dude, I want to do Border Patrol.'"
November 17, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Imagine organizing your whole life around a movie whose central point you missed.
Reposted by Justin Leinaweaver
you could fact check this — there aren’t 30 million illegal immigrants and there is no evidence that the presence of an immigrant in say houston has any impact on housing in madison, wisconsin — or you could note straightforwardly that this is just nazi rhetoric
JD Vance: "A lot of young people are saying housing is way too expensive. Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants who were taking houses that ought by right go to American citizens."
November 13, 2025 at 10:12 PM
you could fact check this — there aren’t 30 million illegal immigrants and there is no evidence that the presence of an immigrant in say houston has any impact on housing in madison, wisconsin — or you could note straightforwardly that this is just nazi rhetoric