Kert Viele
@kertviele.bsky.social
Director of Research, Berry Consultants. Clinical trial designer specializing in Bayesian adaptive trials. Fellow of the American Statistical Association.
Utilities. If you aren’t using good ones explicitly, you are likely using bad ones implicitly.
47. People really don't know what to do with ordinal variables, so they either treat them as continuous or dichotomize them
August 19, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Utilities. If you aren’t using good ones explicitly, you are likely using bad ones implicitly.
I can see my kids adding "but we are still collecting data to increase power".....
After like a decade and a half of free-riding on @zachweinersmith.bsky.social’s public goods, I finally decided to engage in a Coasean bargain to compensate for my consumption of his externalities.
@smbccomics.bsky.social #SMBC #Economics #stats
@smbccomics.bsky.social #SMBC #Economics #stats
August 15, 2025 at 2:50 PM
I can see my kids adding "but we are still collecting data to increase power".....
Reposted by Kert Viele
I think this issue is one of the most appealing aspects of Bayes. With Bayes the posterior distribution is the basis for inference, and it is invariant to the design.
Confidence Intervals for Adaptive Trial Designs II: Case Study and Practical Guidance. David S. Robertson, Thomas Burnett, Babak Choodari-Oskooei, Munya Dimairo, Michael Grayling, Philip Pallmann, Thomas Jaki. Statistics in Medicine. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Confidence Intervals for Adaptive Trial Designs II: Case Study and Practical Guidance
In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional confidence interval (CI) for a treatment effect is prone to undesirable properties such as undercoverage and potential inconsistency with the final hypot...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
I think this issue is one of the most appealing aspects of Bayes. With Bayes the posterior distribution is the basis for inference, and it is invariant to the design.
And you thought reviewer 2 was rough…
A large-scale, government-funded study tracking 1.2M children over two decades found something Kennedy doesn't like, so he wants it retracted.
www.reuters.com/business/hea...
www.reuters.com/business/hea...
Exclusive: Medical journal rejects Kennedy's call for retraction of vaccine study
An influential U.S. medical journal is rejecting a call from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to retract a large Danish study that found that aluminum ingredients in vaccines do not increase health risks for children, the journal's editor told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
August 11, 2025 at 10:51 PM
And you thought reviewer 2 was rough…
Reposted by Kert Viele
📢 Apply now for the JAMA Network Peer Review Academy!
This 9-month remote program connects early-career researchers with JAMA Network editors for hands-on peer review training.
https://ja.ma/3TlIeIO
This 9-month remote program connects early-career researchers with JAMA Network editors for hands-on peer review training.
https://ja.ma/3TlIeIO
July 9, 2025 at 11:30 AM
📢 Apply now for the JAMA Network Peer Review Academy!
This 9-month remote program connects early-career researchers with JAMA Network editors for hands-on peer review training.
https://ja.ma/3TlIeIO
This 9-month remote program connects early-career researchers with JAMA Network editors for hands-on peer review training.
https://ja.ma/3TlIeIO
Reposted by Kert Viele
The Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial has been nominated for a Patient healthcare communication award!
Public voting is now open 👉 ccrew.accesscr.com.au/cpir-2025/pu...
Find out more about SNAP 🔗 www.snaptrial.com.au
Give us a vote!!
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Public voting is now open 👉 ccrew.accesscr.com.au/cpir-2025/pu...
Find out more about SNAP 🔗 www.snaptrial.com.au
Give us a vote!!
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
SNAP Trial – Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform Trial
SNAP aims to improve treatment outcomes for patients with Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections. This website provides information for participants, members of the public, and healthcare profes...
www.snaptrial.com.au
July 8, 2025 at 3:37 AM
The Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial has been nominated for a Patient healthcare communication award!
Public voting is now open 👉 ccrew.accesscr.com.au/cpir-2025/pu...
Find out more about SNAP 🔗 www.snaptrial.com.au
Give us a vote!!
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Public voting is now open 👉 ccrew.accesscr.com.au/cpir-2025/pu...
Find out more about SNAP 🔗 www.snaptrial.com.au
Give us a vote!!
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Saw the animal farm argument of statistical inference presented this morning. “When Bayes and frequentist are equal use frequentist” because apparently some are more equal than others.
June 10, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Saw the animal farm argument of statistical inference presented this morning. “When Bayes and frequentist are equal use frequentist” because apparently some are more equal than others.
I continue to find the endowment argument bizarre. Research grants are paying money for a service. We don’t ask a defense contractor to spend down all their bank accounts before we pay for a plane. Why before we pay for research?
BREAKING: Amid more federal funding and research cuts, Johns Hopkins University is pausing pay increases, freezing staff hiring and reducing capital projects by up to 20%. The university is on track to lose nearly $1 billion in funding — so far. Read:
www.thebaltimorebanner.com/education/hi...
www.thebaltimorebanner.com/education/hi...
Johns Hopkins pauses pay increases, freezes hiring amid federal cuts
The Johns Hopkins University will freeze staff hiring and pay increases as it deals with federal funding losses
www.thebaltimorebanner.com
June 3, 2025 at 1:38 AM
I continue to find the endowment argument bizarre. Research grants are paying money for a service. We don’t ask a defense contractor to spend down all their bank accounts before we pay for a plane. Why before we pay for research?
For all clinical trialists who don’t believe in bringing in historical information or hierarchical borrowing across subgroups….a question…Aaron Judge is currently batting about 0.400. Do you take 0.400 as the best estimate of his 2025 average, or something lower? 🧵
May 20, 2025 at 3:08 PM
For all clinical trialists who don’t believe in bringing in historical information or hierarchical borrowing across subgroups….a question…Aaron Judge is currently batting about 0.400. Do you take 0.400 as the best estimate of his 2025 average, or something lower? 🧵
3968
Implement a 100% tariff and ruin a movie
The F16 of the Furious
The F16 of the Furious
Implement a 100% tariff and ruin a movie
Six Men and Two Babies
Six Men and Two Babies
May 8, 2025 at 3:58 AM
3968
The most important thing in any job is that your boss and administration has your back. If you're looking for an academic job in the US...start with this list.
When this statement from university prez came out ten days ago, it has ~ 180 signatures.
Today it is nearing 600.
www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
A hard choice for many of these institutions. Especially earliest signers, who had no idea how much company they'd have.
But people keep standing up.
Today it is nearing 600.
www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
A hard choice for many of these institutions. Especially earliest signers, who had no idea how much company they'd have.
But people keep standing up.
May 2, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The most important thing in any job is that your boss and administration has your back. If you're looking for an academic job in the US...start with this list.
Reposted by Kert Viele
Stay tuned for the first @cmicomms.bsky.social & #Breakpoints collaboration episode on Sun, May 4th 6PM US EST/Mon May 5th 12 AM CET. Hosts Angela Huttner & Erin McCreary interview SNAP trial investigators, Steven Tong &Joshua Davis, on PSSA and MSSA domain results shared at 2025 ESCMID Global.
April 29, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Stay tuned for the first @cmicomms.bsky.social & #Breakpoints collaboration episode on Sun, May 4th 6PM US EST/Mon May 5th 12 AM CET. Hosts Angela Huttner & Erin McCreary interview SNAP trial investigators, Steven Tong &Joshua Davis, on PSSA and MSSA domain results shared at 2025 ESCMID Global.
Reposted by Kert Viele
Please apply if your interested in running a new adaptive platform trial for invasive Streptococcal infections. Will work closely with the #SNAP_trial team.
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Applications close May 20 2025.
jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/92003...
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Applications close May 20 2025.
jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/92003...
Details : Project Manager : The University of Melbourne
Careers at The University of Melbourne
jobs.unimelb.edu.au
April 29, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Please apply if your interested in running a new adaptive platform trial for invasive Streptococcal infections. Will work closely with the #SNAP_trial team.
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Applications close May 20 2025.
jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/92003...
@thedohertyinst.bsky.social
Applications close May 20 2025.
jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/92003...
Response adaptive randomization adjusts allocation probabilities over the course of a trial, based on accumulating data. RAR increases allocation to arms performing well, and decreases allocation to arms performing poorly. In multiple arm trials, this has advantages over fixed randomization.
Not gonna lie, I’m still wrapping my head around RAR (Response-Adaptive Randomization). Anyone have a simple breakdown? #idsky
🔥REMAP-CAP RCT🔥
Among patients admitted to the ICU with severe non-pandemic CAP & either cardiovascular or respiratory failure there was a low probability that a 7d fixed-duration course of hydrocortisone improved 90d mortality @pulmcrit.bsky.social #EMIMCC #IDSky
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Among patients admitted to the ICU with severe non-pandemic CAP & either cardiovascular or respiratory failure there was a low probability that a 7d fixed-duration course of hydrocortisone improved 90d mortality @pulmcrit.bsky.social #EMIMCC #IDSky
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
April 22, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Response adaptive randomization adjusts allocation probabilities over the course of a trial, based on accumulating data. RAR increases allocation to arms performing well, and decreases allocation to arms performing poorly. In multiple arm trials, this has advantages over fixed randomization.
RA Fisher on factorial trials. An ongoing missed opportunity in medical research.
"No aphorism is more frequently repeated in connection with field trials, than that we must ask Nature few questions, or, ideally, one question at a time. The writer is convinced this view is wholly mistaken... (1/2)
"No aphorism is more frequently repeated in connection with field trials, than that we must ask Nature few questions, or, ideally, one question at a time. The writer is convinced this view is wholly mistaken... (1/2)
April 16, 2025 at 3:36 PM
RA Fisher on factorial trials. An ongoing missed opportunity in medical research.
"No aphorism is more frequently repeated in connection with field trials, than that we must ask Nature few questions, or, ideally, one question at a time. The writer is convinced this view is wholly mistaken... (1/2)
"No aphorism is more frequently repeated in connection with field trials, than that we must ask Nature few questions, or, ideally, one question at a time. The writer is convinced this view is wholly mistaken... (1/2)
One of my interests is the love/hate relationship statisticians have with data. Want to approve a drug or treat a patient today? Look at the available evidence!! Want to design an experiment...many statisticians answer..IGNORE the available evidence!! Why?
www.berryconsultants.com/resource/8-e...
www.berryconsultants.com/resource/8-e...
8: External Data in Clinical Trials | Podcast Episode
In this episode of
www.berryconsultants.com
April 14, 2025 at 8:20 PM
One of my interests is the love/hate relationship statisticians have with data. Want to approve a drug or treat a patient today? Look at the available evidence!! Want to design an experiment...many statisticians answer..IGNORE the available evidence!! Why?
www.berryconsultants.com/resource/8-e...
www.berryconsultants.com/resource/8-e...
My advice to all my PhD students on defense day….”wait for your committee members to start arguing amongst themselves, and then just watch the show”
!["PhD supervisors have two moods: [picture of heavily altered essay with red lines everywhere] [picture of guy with thumb up]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zq2dj4isij7fkgxdaq4objoj/bafkreibi2mia4kpmjtdia64rkuncad5o6p37stm3iqxsygcb3ggi7wl4gy@jpeg)
April 14, 2025 at 2:44 PM
My advice to all my PhD students on defense day….”wait for your committee members to start arguing amongst themselves, and then just watch the show”
I’d be inclined to think hospitalizations are more accurate than case counts. People are more likely to take a really sick kid to a doctor and get counted while mild infections go unreported. Of course hospitalizations are fewer and more variable. Also….
Important article - glad to be quoted along with @craigspencer.bsky.social
abcnews.go.com/Health/rfk-j...
abcnews.go.com/Health/rfk-j...
RFK Jr. claims curve is flattening in Texas measles outbreak. Does the data agree?
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the curve is flattening in the measles outbreak in Texas. Public health experts say that's not what the data shows.
abcnews.go.com
April 10, 2025 at 3:04 AM
I’d be inclined to think hospitalizations are more accurate than case counts. People are more likely to take a really sick kid to a doctor and get counted while mild infections go unreported. Of course hospitalizations are fewer and more variable. Also….
Interesting experimental idea. Curious if the result indicates a prior distribution on “coins are fair” as much as a statement on likelihoods. Would have been interesting to also investigate a “novel” source of randomness.
"Is p < 0.05 a reasonable threshold?"
Over 500 students and survey workers flipped a coin that never landed on tails.
They recorded how many flips it took to realize the coin was unfair.
On average, it corresponded to p = 0.005.
doi.org/10.4473/TPM2...
#stats #philSci #xPhi
Over 500 students and survey workers flipped a coin that never landed on tails.
They recorded how many flips it took to realize the coin was unfair.
On average, it corresponded to p = 0.005.
doi.org/10.4473/TPM2...
#stats #philSci #xPhi
April 9, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Interesting experimental idea. Curious if the result indicates a prior distribution on “coins are fair” as much as a statement on likelihoods. Would have been interesting to also investigate a “novel” source of randomness.
As best I can tell they can grab me or my kids off the street, move us around fast enough we don’t know where to file a claim, intimidate our potential lawyers to not represent us, and then once we are outside the US claim “oops nothing anyone can do”. How is anyone ok with this?
April 7, 2025 at 11:17 PM
As best I can tell they can grab me or my kids off the street, move us around fast enough we don’t know where to file a claim, intimidate our potential lawyers to not represent us, and then once we are outside the US claim “oops nothing anyone can do”. How is anyone ok with this?
I believe virtually all trial results should be public. Sponsors pay for trials but participants give precious resources. Society benefits from full transparency. Deidentified of course, likely with delays, but if you experimented on a human you owe humanity the results.
Clinical trials are nothing without their participants and it is key that the results of trials are shared with them. But this is still not routinely done. 1/7
#MethodologyMonday #115
#MethodologyMonday #115
April 7, 2025 at 9:14 AM
I believe virtually all trial results should be public. Sponsors pay for trials but participants give precious resources. Society benefits from full transparency. Deidentified of course, likely with delays, but if you experimented on a human you owe humanity the results.
I wouldn’t guess exactly how but wouldn’t be surprised if reporting of cases is very different in the two locales.
Canadians should note that there are more measles cases *655* in Ontario alone than in this USA outbreak.
www.cbc.ca/news/health/...
www.cbc.ca/news/health/...
April 7, 2025 at 1:56 AM
I wouldn’t guess exactly how but wouldn’t be surprised if reporting of cases is very different in the two locales.
Reposted by Kert Viele
This JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods provides an overview of platform trials, describes the characteristics that make them more efficient for evidence generation, and discusses their limitations. https://ja.ma/3XxvqBC
Platform Clinical Trials for the Efficient Evaluation of Multiple Treatments
This Guide to Statistics and Methods provides an overview of platform trials, describes the characteristics that make them more efficient for evidence generation, and discusses their limitations.
ja.ma
April 4, 2025 at 10:00 PM
This JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods provides an overview of platform trials, describes the characteristics that make them more efficient for evidence generation, and discusses their limitations. https://ja.ma/3XxvqBC
This workplace has gone 0 days without being denied authorship because we are "just a vendor" (regardless of contribution)
April 2, 2025 at 3:54 PM
This workplace has gone 0 days without being denied authorship because we are "just a vendor" (regardless of contribution)