Macartan Humphreys
@macartan.bsky.social
WZB Berlin, Humboldt University, TCD
https://macartan.github.io/
Politics, conflict, inequality, political economy of development, causal inference
https://macartan.github.io/
Politics, conflict, inequality, political economy of development, causal inference
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
New research publication from Dr @gizemarikan.bsky.social & Dr Judit Ralbovszki titled 'The effect of terrorism on religious minorities: evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel' out now via the Journal of Peace Research.
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
January 30, 2026 at 1:46 PM
New research publication from Dr @gizemarikan.bsky.social & Dr Judit Ralbovszki titled 'The effect of terrorism on religious minorities: evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel' out now via the Journal of Peace Research.
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
Really enjoyed doing this short course on causal models for qualitative and mixed methods research @gesistraining.bsky.social; what a great group
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
January 30, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Really enjoyed doing this short course on causal models for qualitative and mixed methods research @gesistraining.bsky.social; what a great group
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
@heikogiebler.bsky.social, Johannes Giesecke, @macartan.bsky.social, @swenhutter.bsky.social & @heikekluever.bsky.social: Mobilizing Europe’s citizens to take action on migration and climate change: behavioral evidence from 27 EU member states 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
January 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM
@heikogiebler.bsky.social, Johannes Giesecke, @macartan.bsky.social, @swenhutter.bsky.social & @heikekluever.bsky.social: Mobilizing Europe’s citizens to take action on migration and climate change: behavioral evidence from 27 EU member states 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Tomorrow is the last day to apply for this mixed methods / causal inference course in Cologne !
Please share: @alanjacobs.bsky.social and I are running a Jan '26 course at @gesis.org Cologne on
𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡
🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models
All in two heady days.
training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...
𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡
🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models
All in two heady days.
training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...
GESIS Training Courses
training.gesis.org
January 8, 2026 at 9:28 PM
Tomorrow is the last day to apply for this mixed methods / causal inference course in Cologne !
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
All this and more, a plug for my @justsecurity.org colleague @eliavl.bsky.social ‘s excellent book on Occupation in International Law (OUP 2022). Luckily he gave me an extra signed copy in recent weeks so encourage you all to get your own - you will find it useful in the week’s ahead.
January 4, 2026 at 4:43 PM
All this and more, a plug for my @justsecurity.org colleague @eliavl.bsky.social ‘s excellent book on Occupation in International Law (OUP 2022). Luckily he gave me an extra signed copy in recent weeks so encourage you all to get your own - you will find it useful in the week’s ahead.
“Thank you for your attention to this matter” 🔥
January 8, 2026 at 6:23 PM
“Thank you for your attention to this matter” 🔥
What a disappointing, ambivalent response from the EU.
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela.
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
January 4, 2026 at 9:28 AM
What a disappointing, ambivalent response from the EU.
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Per NY Times’s Michael Grynbaum on X, this is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her “60 Minutes” colleagues in full:
December 22, 2025 at 3:37 AM
Per NY Times’s Michael Grynbaum on X, this is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her “60 Minutes” colleagues in full:
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
December 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
🚨How Ireland Voted 2024 is out!🇮🇪🗳️
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
How Ireland Voted 2024
This book is the 10th volume in the established How Ireland Voted series and provides the definitive story of Ireland’s 2024 election.
link.springer.com
December 10, 2025 at 11:58 AM
🚨How Ireland Voted 2024 is out!🇮🇪🗳️
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
The UN, human rights organizations, and scholars have concluded that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
Gaza, Israel, and German Foreign Policy: A View on Public Opinion
A survey conducted in August 2025 found that the majority of people living in Germany support a foreign policy towards Gaza and Israel that is guided by international law and seeks to uphold universal...
www.giga-hamburg.de
December 8, 2025 at 9:49 PM
The UN, human rights organizations, and scholars have concluded that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
🆕 Ten key insights from development economics in 2025
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
Ten key insights from development economics in 2025
Research on VoxDev in 2025 has shed light on getting stuff done, paying for it, the changing development landscape, and a whole lot more.
voxdev.org
December 9, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🆕 Ten key insights from development economics in 2025
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social your point I think
Reasonable if that’s what you are aiming for; in which case this becomes more a question of ext validity
Reasonable if that’s what you are aiming for; in which case this becomes more a question of ext validity
December 3, 2025 at 7:45 PM
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social your point I think
Reasonable if that’s what you are aiming for; in which case this becomes more a question of ext validity
Reasonable if that’s what you are aiming for; in which case this becomes more a question of ext validity
I appreciate though the idea that we actually sometimes want to *define* levels as fx: how responses depend on conditions
December 3, 2025 at 7:43 PM
I appreciate though the idea that we actually sometimes want to *define* levels as fx: how responses depend on conditions
Yes this is exactly right that’s why the machinery is the same
Now turn to the inquiry: is my *interest* in whether you say Y or N depending on this Q or is it whether you are someone that likes coffee (and, or tea). If latter then Inq is not fx but the surv exp might be a great way to measure it
Now turn to the inquiry: is my *interest* in whether you say Y or N depending on this Q or is it whether you are someone that likes coffee (and, or tea). If latter then Inq is not fx but the surv exp might be a great way to measure it
December 3, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Yes this is exactly right that’s why the machinery is the same
Now turn to the inquiry: is my *interest* in whether you say Y or N depending on this Q or is it whether you are someone that likes coffee (and, or tea). If latter then Inq is not fx but the surv exp might be a great way to measure it
Now turn to the inquiry: is my *interest* in whether you say Y or N depending on this Q or is it whether you are someone that likes coffee (and, or tea). If latter then Inq is not fx but the surv exp might be a great way to measure it
December 3, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Sorry but last: if I change the gender of a candidate in a conjoint I am effectively asking you what you think about a candidate with a given attribute; that’s fine but it’s not the effect of gender on choice
It’s slippery
It’s slippery
December 3, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Sorry but last: if I change the gender of a candidate in a conjoint I am effectively asking you what you think about a candidate with a given attribute; that’s fine but it’s not the effect of gender on choice
It’s slippery
It’s slippery
I get to measure your preference but I haven’t changed it. I have just changed the answer by virtue of changing the question. I could even ask you both questions.
That’s obv an extreme example but hopefully points to fact that the machinery can get used but for measurement purposes
That’s obv an extreme example but hopefully points to fact that the machinery can get used but for measurement purposes
December 3, 2025 at 6:55 PM
I get to measure your preference but I haven’t changed it. I have just changed the answer by virtue of changing the question. I could even ask you both questions.
That’s obv an extreme example but hopefully points to fact that the machinery can get used but for measurement purposes
That’s obv an extreme example but hopefully points to fact that the machinery can get used but for measurement purposes
I think the formal similarity and the nomenclature used makes for for confusion
One way to think about it: you don’t measure causal effects; you infer them. At most one po gets realized. If i ask you randomly if you like tea (T) or coffee (C), and you answer yes or no as a function of the wording…
One way to think about it: you don’t measure causal effects; you infer them. At most one po gets realized. If i ask you randomly if you like tea (T) or coffee (C), and you answer yes or no as a function of the wording…
December 3, 2025 at 6:55 PM
I think the formal similarity and the nomenclature used makes for for confusion
One way to think about it: you don’t measure causal effects; you infer them. At most one po gets realized. If i ask you randomly if you like tea (T) or coffee (C), and you answer yes or no as a function of the wording…
One way to think about it: you don’t measure causal effects; you infer them. At most one po gets realized. If i ask you randomly if you like tea (T) or coffee (C), and you answer yes or no as a function of the wording…
1000 times this. Thanks Cyrus
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
1000 times this. Thanks Cyrus
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 3, 2025 at 5:23 PM
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya
The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...
globalinitiative.net
December 1, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
This is a lie. Immigrants from different cultures have strengthened America, have *become* America.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
November 28, 2025 at 3:20 PM
This is a lie. Immigrants from different cultures have strengthened America, have *become* America.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
Thanks for having me there! Just lovely to spend a little time with the amazing group at TIME
November 27, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Thanks for having me there! Just lovely to spend a little time with the amazing group at TIME