Macartan Humphreys
@macartan.bsky.social
WZB Berlin, Humboldt University, TCD
https://macartan.github.io/
Politics, conflict, inequality, political economy of development, causal inference
https://macartan.github.io/
Politics, conflict, inequality, political economy of development, causal inference
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
New research publication from Dr @gizemarikan.bsky.social & Dr Judit Ralbovszki titled 'The effect of terrorism on religious minorities: evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel' out now via the Journal of Peace Research.
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
January 30, 2026 at 1:46 PM
New research publication from Dr @gizemarikan.bsky.social & Dr Judit Ralbovszki titled 'The effect of terrorism on religious minorities: evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel' out now via the Journal of Peace Research.
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...
Really enjoyed doing this short course on causal models for qualitative and mixed methods research @gesistraining.bsky.social; what a great group
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
January 30, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Really enjoyed doing this short course on causal models for qualitative and mixed methods research @gesistraining.bsky.social; what a great group
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/
bsky.app/profile/gesi...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
@heikogiebler.bsky.social, Johannes Giesecke, @macartan.bsky.social, @swenhutter.bsky.social & @heikekluever.bsky.social: Mobilizing Europe’s citizens to take action on migration and climate change: behavioral evidence from 27 EU member states 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
January 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM
@heikogiebler.bsky.social, Johannes Giesecke, @macartan.bsky.social, @swenhutter.bsky.social & @heikekluever.bsky.social: Mobilizing Europe’s citizens to take action on migration and climate change: behavioral evidence from 27 EU member states 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Tomorrow is the last day to apply for this mixed methods / causal inference course in Cologne !
Please share: @alanjacobs.bsky.social and I are running a Jan '26 course at @gesis.org Cologne on
𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡
🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models
All in two heady days.
training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...
𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡
🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models
All in two heady days.
training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...
GESIS Training Courses
training.gesis.org
January 8, 2026 at 9:28 PM
Tomorrow is the last day to apply for this mixed methods / causal inference course in Cologne !
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
All this and more, a plug for my @justsecurity.org colleague @eliavl.bsky.social ‘s excellent book on Occupation in International Law (OUP 2022). Luckily he gave me an extra signed copy in recent weeks so encourage you all to get your own - you will find it useful in the week’s ahead.
January 4, 2026 at 4:43 PM
All this and more, a plug for my @justsecurity.org colleague @eliavl.bsky.social ‘s excellent book on Occupation in International Law (OUP 2022). Luckily he gave me an extra signed copy in recent weeks so encourage you all to get your own - you will find it useful in the week’s ahead.
What a disappointing, ambivalent response from the EU.
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela.
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
January 4, 2026 at 9:28 AM
What a disappointing, ambivalent response from the EU.
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:
bsky.app/profile/seva...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Per NY Times’s Michael Grynbaum on X, this is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her “60 Minutes” colleagues in full:
December 22, 2025 at 3:37 AM
Per NY Times’s Michael Grynbaum on X, this is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her “60 Minutes” colleagues in full:
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
December 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
🚨How Ireland Voted 2024 is out!🇮🇪🗳️
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
How Ireland Voted 2024
This book is the 10th volume in the established How Ireland Voted series and provides the definitive story of Ireland’s 2024 election.
link.springer.com
December 10, 2025 at 11:58 AM
🚨How Ireland Voted 2024 is out!🇮🇪🗳️
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.
A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
The UN, human rights organizations, and scholars have concluded that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
Gaza, Israel, and German Foreign Policy: A View on Public Opinion
A survey conducted in August 2025 found that the majority of people living in Germany support a foreign policy towards Gaza and Israel that is guided by international law and seeks to uphold universal...
www.giga-hamburg.de
December 8, 2025 at 9:49 PM
The UN, human rights organizations, and scholars have concluded that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?
A long 🧵based on survey results.
www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
🆕 Ten key insights from development economics in 2025
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
Ten key insights from development economics in 2025
Research on VoxDev in 2025 has shed light on getting stuff done, paying for it, the changing development landscape, and a whole lot more.
voxdev.org
December 9, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🆕 Ten key insights from development economics in 2025
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?
I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...
December 3, 2025 at 7:10 PM
1000 times this. Thanks Cyrus
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
1000 times this. Thanks Cyrus
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 3, 2025 at 5:23 PM
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya
The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...
globalinitiative.net
December 1, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
This is a lie. Immigrants from different cultures have strengthened America, have *become* America.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
November 28, 2025 at 3:20 PM
This is a lie. Immigrants from different cultures have strengthened America, have *become* America.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
But the lowest and most extremist Americans once made *identical*, hateful claims about Miller’s Jewish refugee ancestors, about Asian Americans, about Irish Catholic Americans, and countless others.
Very much looking forward to giving the TIME keynote lecture on the impact of development research in Dublin next Wednesday
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
November 21, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Very much looking forward to giving the TIME keynote lecture on the impact of development research in Dublin next Wednesday
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
2500 paper submissions - what a huge success for @epssnet.bsky.social already. Big congratulations to @sarahobolt.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & everyone else involved in getting EPSS off the ground.
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
2500 paper submissions - what a huge success for @epssnet.bsky.social already. Big congratulations to @sarahobolt.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & everyone else involved in getting EPSS off the ground.
Very nice and really thoughtful review of new work on qualitative methods (with some fair criticisms of our *Integrated Inferences* book!).
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Check out The Qualitative Metamorphosis in @comppol.bsky.social! Great review by @ajayverghese.bsky.social of books by @saragoodman.bsky.social, Jen Cyr, @marioluissmall.bsky.social, Jessica Calarco, @alanjacobs.bsky.social, and @macartan.bsky.social. 👇
www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny...
www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny...
Review Article: The Qualitative Metamorphosis: Ingenta Connect Fast Track Article
www.ingentaconnect.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Very nice and really thoughtful review of new work on qualitative methods (with some fair criticisms of our *Integrated Inferences* book!).
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
EPSS 2026 submissions FAQ - EPSS
Submissions are coming in fast for Belfast 2026 and so are your questions about submissions. Here are answers to the most common questions: Where do I go to submit? For panel submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/events/75765/symposia/create For paper submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266/submissions/new? How many papers can I submit? We put a constraint of max one presentation per person. This does …
epssnet.org
November 3, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
November 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Remember, the EPSS submission deadline -- 7 November -- is getting closer! Don't forget to apply!
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
This we’’ll feature the last two sections today:
🔝 This week: Comparative Politics of Development & Political Representation
🧵
This we’’ll feature the last two sections today:
🔝 This week: Comparative Politics of Development & Political Representation
🧵
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
October 23, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Remember, the EPSS submission deadline -- 7 November -- is getting closer! Don't forget to apply!
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu
October 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
🚨One week left to apply for @egap.bsky.social innovation grants. Looking for really creative ideas in need of incubation. Relatively simple application process. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
Please share:
Seeking seed funding to develop innovations for
open science, design, aggregation, transfer..?
Call open now with @egap.bsky.social
egap.org/our-work/res...
@awilke.bsky.social
Deadline 31 October
Seeking seed funding to develop innovations for
open science, design, aggregation, transfer..?
Call open now with @egap.bsky.social
egap.org/our-work/res...
@awilke.bsky.social
Deadline 31 October
EGAP Innovation Grants 2025 – EGAP
egap.org
October 23, 2025 at 2:01 PM
🚨One week left to apply for @egap.bsky.social innovation grants. Looking for really creative ideas in need of incubation. Relatively simple application process. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
▶️ Comparative Politics of Development
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
October 23, 2025 at 11:14 AM
▶️ Comparative Politics of Development
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/