Macartan Humphreys
@macartan.bsky.social
WZB Berlin, Humboldt University, TCD
https://macartan.github.io/
Politics, conflict, inequality, political economy of development, causal inference
https://macartan.github.io/
Politics, conflict, inequality, political economy of development, causal inference
Very much looking forward to giving the TIME keynote lecture on the impact of development research in Dublin next Wednesday
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
November 21, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Very much looking forward to giving the TIME keynote lecture on the impact of development research in Dublin next Wednesday
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
Come along if you're in town!
@tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social @tcddublin.bsky.social
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
2500 paper submissions - what a huge success for @epssnet.bsky.social already. Big congratulations to @sarahobolt.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & everyone else involved in getting EPSS off the ground.
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
2500 paper submissions - what a huge success for @epssnet.bsky.social already. Big congratulations to @sarahobolt.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & everyone else involved in getting EPSS off the ground.
Very nice and really thoughtful review of new work on qualitative methods (with some fair criticisms of our *Integrated Inferences* book!).
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Check out The Qualitative Metamorphosis in @comppol.bsky.social! Great review by @ajayverghese.bsky.social of books by @saragoodman.bsky.social, Jen Cyr, @marioluissmall.bsky.social, Jessica Calarco, @alanjacobs.bsky.social, and @macartan.bsky.social. 👇
www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny...
www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny...
Review Article: The Qualitative Metamorphosis: Ingenta Connect Fast Track Article
www.ingentaconnect.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Very nice and really thoughtful review of new work on qualitative methods (with some fair criticisms of our *Integrated Inferences* book!).
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Looking forward now to spending more time reading *Doing Good Qualitative Research* and *Qualitative Literacy*
Thanks for sharing and engaging!
Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
EPSS 2026 submissions FAQ - EPSS
Submissions are coming in fast for Belfast 2026 and so are your questions about submissions. Here are answers to the most common questions: Where do I go to submit? For panel submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/events/75765/symposia/create For paper submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266/submissions/new? How many papers can I submit? We put a constraint of max one presentation per person. This does …
epssnet.org
November 3, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
November 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Remember, the EPSS submission deadline -- 7 November -- is getting closer! Don't forget to apply!
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
This we’’ll feature the last two sections today:
🔝 This week: Comparative Politics of Development & Political Representation
🧵
This we’’ll feature the last two sections today:
🔝 This week: Comparative Politics of Development & Political Representation
🧵
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
October 23, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Remember, the EPSS submission deadline -- 7 November -- is getting closer! Don't forget to apply!
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu
October 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
🚨One week left to apply for @egap.bsky.social innovation grants. Looking for really creative ideas in need of incubation. Relatively simple application process. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
Please share:
Seeking seed funding to develop innovations for
open science, design, aggregation, transfer..?
Call open now with @egap.bsky.social
egap.org/our-work/res...
@awilke.bsky.social
Deadline 31 October
Seeking seed funding to develop innovations for
open science, design, aggregation, transfer..?
Call open now with @egap.bsky.social
egap.org/our-work/res...
@awilke.bsky.social
Deadline 31 October
EGAP Innovation Grants 2025 – EGAP
egap.org
October 23, 2025 at 2:01 PM
🚨One week left to apply for @egap.bsky.social innovation grants. Looking for really creative ideas in need of incubation. Relatively simple application process. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
bsky.app/profile/maca...
@awilke.bsky.social
* Research Design / Analysis
* Open Science
* Aggregation
* Transfer
* Your idea here
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
▶️ Comparative Politics of Development
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
October 23, 2025 at 11:14 AM
▶️ Comparative Politics of Development
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
👉🏽 Section chairs:
@macartan.bsky.social
&
@pavisuri.bsky.social
📢 Our section invites high-quality work on any topic in the political economy of development or comparative politics in low and middle income countries.
2/
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Critics including Elon Musk have assailed my @cato.org colleague Alex Nowrasteh's study finding that most politically motivated terrorist killings in the U.S. since 1975 have been done by persons on the right. Alex responds to the critics here and explains his methods and classifications.
Alex Responds to the Critics: Politically Motivated Terrorist Killings in the United States
The critics are mistaken
www.alexnowrasteh.com
September 24, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Critics including Elon Musk have assailed my @cato.org colleague Alex Nowrasteh's study finding that most politically motivated terrorist killings in the U.S. since 1975 have been done by persons on the right. Alex responds to the critics here and explains his methods and classifications.
Not sure it’s quite what you want but making the point that big data doesn’t guard against bias
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
With great power comes great responsibility – DeclareDesign
declaredesign.org
October 13, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Not sure it’s quite what you want but making the point that big data doesn’t guard against bias
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
declaredesign.org/blog/posts/w...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Manchán Magan: President Michael D Higgins leads tributes to writer and documentary maker who has died aged 55
Manchán Magan: President Michael D Higgins leads tributes to writer and documentary maker who has died aged 55
Author spoke of terminal illness in recent radio interview, saying he did not feel despair
www.irishtimes.com
October 3, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Manchán Magan: President Michael D Higgins leads tributes to writer and documentary maker who has died aged 55
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
We'll feature four sections this week to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 Judicial Politics + Public Policy & Administration + Migration Politics + Gender & Sexuality Politics
🧵
We'll feature four sections this week to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 Judicial Politics + Public Policy & Administration + Migration Politics + Gender & Sexuality Politics
🧵
EPSS 2026 Conference | June 18–20 | ICC Belfast, UK
Join top political scientists for the EPSS 2026 Annual Conference in Belfast. Submit papers, attend panels, and network with fellow researchers.
epssnet.org
October 2, 2025 at 3:20 PM
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
We'll feature four sections this week to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 Judicial Politics + Public Policy & Administration + Migration Politics + Gender & Sexuality Politics
🧵
We'll feature four sections this week to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 Judicial Politics + Public Policy & Administration + Migration Politics + Gender & Sexuality Politics
🧵
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
October 2, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
📣 Our October newsletter is out! 🍂
🔍 Interview w/ @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social
✨ Updates on #GESISworkshops & #GESISspringseminar, plus a look back at #GESISsummerschool
👀 Enjoy the read: t1p.de/training-nl-...
🔍 Interview w/ @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social
✨ Updates on #GESISworkshops & #GESISspringseminar, plus a look back at #GESISsummerschool
👀 Enjoy the read: t1p.de/training-nl-...
October 2, 2025 at 8:08 AM
📣 Our October newsletter is out! 🍂
🔍 Interview w/ @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social
✨ Updates on #GESISworkshops & #GESISspringseminar, plus a look back at #GESISsummerschool
👀 Enjoy the read: t1p.de/training-nl-...
🔍 Interview w/ @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social
✨ Updates on #GESISworkshops & #GESISspringseminar, plus a look back at #GESISsummerschool
👀 Enjoy the read: t1p.de/training-nl-...
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
Like other social democratic parties in Europe, Labour has only lost a small share of its voters to Reform. Yet Reform dominates the agenda. And Labour‘s response especially on immigration only strengthens Reform further. I‘m a broken record on this but just puzzling how these narratives persist.
NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
September 28, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Like other social democratic parties in Europe, Labour has only lost a small share of its voters to Reform. Yet Reform dominates the agenda. And Labour‘s response especially on immigration only strengthens Reform further. I‘m a broken record on this but just puzzling how these narratives persist.
Not bubbles exactly but this sounds like a job for geom_smooth
ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/ge...
See figs at bottom with bands
FWIW my original remarks weren’t about smoothing but about sequences that are themselves smooth; thought experiment imagine an infinity of measures all fall on a line
ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/ge...
See figs at bottom with bands
FWIW my original remarks weren’t about smoothing but about sequences that are themselves smooth; thought experiment imagine an infinity of measures all fall on a line
Smoothed conditional means — geom_smooth
Aids the eye in seeing patterns in the presence of overplotting.
geom_smooth() and stat_smooth() are effectively aliases: they
both use the same arguments. Use stat_smooth() if you want to
display the...
ggplot2.tidyverse.org
September 28, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Not bubbles exactly but this sounds like a job for geom_smooth
ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/ge...
See figs at bottom with bands
FWIW my original remarks weren’t about smoothing but about sequences that are themselves smooth; thought experiment imagine an infinity of measures all fall on a line
ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/ge...
See figs at bottom with bands
FWIW my original remarks weren’t about smoothing but about sequences that are themselves smooth; thought experiment imagine an infinity of measures all fall on a line
noise from trends if we believe smooth processes happen in nature but noisy measurement invariably produces series that are not smooth. Just a musing though.
September 28, 2025 at 9:28 AM
noise from trends if we believe smooth processes happen in nature but noisy measurement invariably produces series that are not smooth. Just a musing though.
To me the message from the graph seems clear and yes terrifying
I was trying to think why I wasn’t bothered by the lack of error bars and I think it’s
1. The trends are clear even if we aren’t sure about the points and
2. What I was musing about: seems to me we can infer something about …
I was trying to think why I wasn’t bothered by the lack of error bars and I think it’s
1. The trends are clear even if we aren’t sure about the points and
2. What I was musing about: seems to me we can infer something about …
September 28, 2025 at 9:28 AM
To me the message from the graph seems clear and yes terrifying
I was trying to think why I wasn’t bothered by the lack of error bars and I think it’s
1. The trends are clear even if we aren’t sure about the points and
2. What I was musing about: seems to me we can infer something about …
I was trying to think why I wasn’t bothered by the lack of error bars and I think it’s
1. The trends are clear even if we aren’t sure about the points and
2. What I was musing about: seems to me we can infer something about …
These lines are fairly straight. But imagine they were very very close to perfectly straight. Would you infer anything about the second moments?
September 28, 2025 at 8:38 AM
These lines are fairly straight. But imagine they were very very close to perfectly straight. Would you infer anything about the second moments?
Reposted by Macartan Humphreys
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
We'll feature two sections each Tuesday & Thursday to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This Tuesday: Party Politics & Historical Political Economy
We'll feature two sections each Tuesday & Thursday to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This Tuesday: Party Politics & Historical Political Economy
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
September 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
We'll feature two sections each Tuesday & Thursday to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This Tuesday: Party Politics & Historical Political Economy
We'll feature two sections each Tuesday & Thursday to provide more information about the conference.
🔝 This Tuesday: Party Politics & Historical Political Economy