Nick Wilson
@nickhwilson.bsky.social
370 followers 410 following 560 posts
Stony Brook University Sociology (Historical, Political, Cultural, of Science, etc.) Modernity's Corruption: https://tinyurl.com/y596p54t After Positivism: https://tinyurl.com/3nrfakrj nickwilsonsoc.org
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Reposted by Nick Wilson
nickhwilson.bsky.social
The O's are also so much less irritating than the Yankees....
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Seems like less than they're saying. It's narrow competition that depends on pre-quantified, market-analytic data. Did they test against a regression model? (Also, they say that the rankings are so unstable that they have had to put them on a 50-day delay.)
How well can large language models predict the future?
We’ve just released an updated version of ForecastBench, our LLM forecasting benchmark. Here’s what the new results reveal about the accuracy of state-of-the-art models.
forecastingresearch.substack.com
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Solidarity. I somehow missed out this year too.
nickhwilson.bsky.social
MY POINT IS they seem to have had lots of practice.
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Apropos of nothing, did you know that some "operators" call dividing a room into areas of responsibility upon entry "slicing the pie"?
nickhwilson.bsky.social
I mean, your masochism is really going to be indexed by the kerning.
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Cool. Wasn't expecting to live in a country like this.
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Okay, okay, I'm getting conspiracy-pilled here. Given all the madness today, he's *still* not making any statement?
atrupar.com
Trump has not been seen in public since Tuesday and has no public events on his calendar today
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Little man wants to feel big.
Reposted by Nick Wilson
govpritzker.illinois.gov
This morning, the Trump Administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will. It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Wishful thinking, maybe, but feels like some kind of crest today. Consider:

(1) Kimmel/Sinclair folding.
(2) ICE actually *apologizing* for their agent in NYC.
(3) Hegseth pre-neutering his power-play with generals.
(4) Wheels off the Comey indictment already.

Plenty still bad out there, but...
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Still very bad, but between this and Kimmel/Sinclair, definitely feels like they're starting to have to pre-walk-back their attempted authoritarian grandstanding....to say nothing of how incompetent the Comey indictment is looking.
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Took me a while to work out the physics and geometry at play here.
Reposted by Nick Wilson
jeffsharlet.bsky.social
Ok I’ve now completed my close read of today’s terror memo from Trump, step by step in previous posts. I think it is a momentous document, potentially as much of an acceleration of the slow civil war as Kirk’s assassination. 1/
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Figurative trash (like on a digital desktop) or literal trash (like in a kitchen bin?) Worried because implies two different states of disorder...
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Is Ben Carson in all of our hearts, all the time, thinking about agricultural tariff policy?
nickhwilson.bsky.social
Yes, but....he just stands there. What is he doing there while *she* talks about farmers? Is...he just always there, and sometimes *just* out of frame?