Paolo Fornaro
@paolofornaro.bsky.social
360 followers 220 following 60 posts
Researcher at Labore. Interested in nowcasting, machine learning and big data, productivity analysis. Wannabe rockstar and videogame geek.
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Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
labore.fi
Palkkahajonta on kasvanut Suomessa tasaisen varmasti. Taustalla vaikuttavat erityisesti toimialarakenteen muutokset ja ammattien palkkaerojen kasvu, jotka muovaavat työmarkkinoiden dynamiikkaa, johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social Laboresta kirjoittaa. Lue koko juttu ▶️ labore.fi/t&y/mista-pa...
paolofornaro.bsky.social
That would be a Jupiterian move
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
voxeu.org
Administrative data from US workers' paycheques and firms' payrolls show considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread and represent a genuine, welfare-relevant risk.
@ganong.bsky.social, P Noel, C Patterson, J Vavra, A Weinberg
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of the heterogeneity of earnings volatility for salaried and hourly workers measured as a change from the previous month.

Over the past decade, cities and states in the US have enacted ‘fair workweek’ laws to stabilise worker schedules. This column uses administrative data on US workers’ paycheques and firms’ payrolls to document considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread, disproportionately hits lower‑paid hourly workers, and is largely driven by firms’ labour demand rather than worker-related determinants such as childcare demands. These fluctuations represent genuine, welfare-relevant risk that materially shapes household decisions and has attendant effects on the economy.
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
labore.fi
Talousennuste vuosille 2025-2027: Taantuman jälkeen kasvutekijät kunnossa? "Laboren syksyn 2025 ennusteen mukaan Suomen talous kasvaa 0,6 prosenttia vuonna 2025. Suhdanne kohenee vuosina 2026–2027, jolloin BKT-kasvu vauhdittuu 1,5 ja 1,4 prosenttiin."
Lue lisää! ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/tal...
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
lucafornaro.bsky.social
Some thoughts on the interactions between public debt, public investments and productivity growth in the euro area. Key risk is that the union ends up being split between a fiscally sound/high growth block and a fiscally stagnant one.

www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/sint...
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com
can't really begin to explain the extent to which I do Not want to be filmed without my knowledge by someone wearing smart glasses while out and about
jjvincent.bsky.social
good video hands-on with meta's smart glasses. i've been skeptical on smart glasses for a while, but it looks like the hardware side of this is finally becoming feasible? plus, in a world where kids list "creator" as their dream job, POV video recording is v attractive youtu.be/5cVGKvl7Oek?...
Meta Ray-Ban Display hands-on: best smart glasses I’ve ever tried
YouTube video by The Verge
youtu.be
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
labore.fi
Laboren tukimusohjaaja @ilkkakiema.bsky.social vieraili MTV3 -uutisissa kommentoimassa Petteri Orpon hallituksen budjettiriihen tuloksia ja totesi sopeutustoimien olevan osin talouskasvua heikentäviä. Katso koko haastattelu 👉 www.mtv.fi/video/5c53f2...
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
labore.fi
"Kotoutumistoimenpiteillä on väliä", toteaa tutkimusohaaja @hannukarhunen.bsky.social. Laboren laaja eurooppalainen tutkimuskatsaus tuo selkeää näyttöä siitä, että kotoutumisohjelmat, kielikoulutus ja aktiivisen työvoimapolitiikan toimet toimivat. Lue lisää 👉 labore.fi/julkaisu/tyo...
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
explaintrade.com
In the depths of the Mariana Trench there live creatures born to darkness so total they have never evolved eyes.

Even they saw this coming.
politico.eu
Russia rejected today the idea of European peacekeeping troops serving in Ukraine, contradicting claims earlier this year by U.S. President Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin would accept such a force as part of a peace deal.
Putin rejects European peacekeepers in Ukraine, contradicting Trump
A Kremlin spokesperson said NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe was a “root cause” of Moscow’s 2022 invasion of its neighbor.
www.politico.eu
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
shashj.bsky.social
"Donald Trump intends to leave Russia and Ukraine to organize a meeting between their leaders without directly playing a role for now" theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
matthewhughes.bsky.social
There’s something deeply funny about Americans learning about roundabouts for the first time.
paolofornaro.bsky.social
Love how xplora just decided to raise their sub price by 4% because of inflation...
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
patriziolaina.bsky.social
Rakantava HS-vieraskynä Vesa Vihriälältä. Olen samaa mieltä. Suomi tekemässä pahan virheen vastustamalla EU:n budjetin kasvattamista, vaikka se tapahtuu etenkin turvallisuuteen panostamalla.

www.hs.fi/paakirjoituk...
Vieraskynä | EU tarvitsee isomman budjetin
EU:n komission esittämä budjetin kasvattaminen on hyödyllistä sekä EU:lle että Suomelle.
www.hs.fi
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
cascoinfoundation.org
I’m going to bed now, but the absolute horrific nonsense that crypto bros have been doing inspired me to write 800 words on the state of crypto: it’s really bad.

I’m grateful Protos let me use the appropriate language to describe it and I’d appreciate if you’d read the article and share it.
Polymarket and the new 'innovations' crypto has wrought

Unfortunately, it's not only the progenitors of the green dildo token who have attempted to capitalize on being childish douchebags: betting markets have been opened on Polymarket to determine if and when the next dildo will be hurled onto a WNBA court - and hundreds of thousands of dollars are being wagered.

These are hardly betting markets at this point, being more reminiscent of when Polymarket was gambling on if and when the Southern California fires would reach Santa Monica.
These aren't people making simple bets, they're incentivizing criminal behavior and are far more reminiscent of assassination markets than casinos.

This is the current state of crypto. The biggest fans and users aren't trying to innovate or come up with transformative use cases; they're children hurling sex toys at people who are trying to do their jobs as professional athletes.
It isn't funny, it isn't interesting, and it most definitely isn't useful.
paolofornaro.bsky.social
How much is this a strategy vs someone completely out of control?
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
antoniofatas.bsky.social
Is this the end of uncertainty that the EU said we were getting after signing a trade deal with the US?
paolofornaro.bsky.social
thank you, now I got that song stuck in my head for the next week
Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
voxeu.org
Pascal Michaillat presents an algorithm for detecting #recessions early using labour market data. By combining #unemployment rates and vacancy rates, it is less noisy than relying on a single measure like industrial production.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of monthly US unemployment and vacancy rates, April 1929-May 2025.

The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction practices might benefit from greater emphasis on unemployment and vacancies, as the labour market is already sending an unambiguous signal of recession.